Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Kobalt Tools 500
Phoenix International Raceway (PIR)
Sunday, November 13, 2011 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Phoenix*
1. Carl Edwards 6/1 34th 2nd 9th 28th
2010 winner with average finish of 13th in 14 starts; using eighth-place Loudon chassis.
2. Tony Stewart 5/1 11th 36th 8th 7th
1999 winner, his first PIR Cup start, no wins since; using winning Loudon car from September.
3. Kevin Harvick 12/1 23rd 10th 27th 4th
Swept 2006 season, has 13.8 average finish in 17 starts; using winning Charlotte chassis.
4. Jeff Gordon 7/1 38th 13th 23rd 1st
Two-time winner with an average finish of 10th in 25 starts that includes 10 top-5 finishes.
5. Jimmie Johnson 8/1 33rd 12th 16th 3rd
Four-time winner, has finished fifth or better in 10 straight PIR races; using Loudon chassis.
6. Kyle Busch 8/1 40th 5th 34th 2nd
2005 winner with an average finish of 12.9 in 13 starts; only one top-5 since his win.
7. Matt Kenseth 12/1 2nd 38th 1st 12th
2002 winner, looked to have one of the best cars in Friday’s practice; using Loudon chassis.
8. Ryan Newman 20/1 5th 30th 30th 5th
2010 winner which started a current run of three straight top-5s; great Friday practice sessions.
9. Kasey Kahne 15/1 8th 31st 10th 6th
Career best of fifth in his first PIR Cup start in 2004; best 10 consecutive lap average in practice.
10. Paul Menard 60/1 4th 1st 11th 17th
Had an excellent Friday practice making him a solid contender; using Las Vegas chassis.
* Results from the first Phoenix race of the season held on February 27, 2011.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Showing posts with label kobalt tools 500. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kobalt tools 500. Show all posts
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Friday, November 11, 2011
Phoenix Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
With only two races left in NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship, this is shaping up to be the greatest Chase ever. Tony Stewart won his fourth race in the eight Chase races to pull within three points of point leader Carl Edwards. For the first 26 races of the season, Stewart didn’t have a single win. It’s on one of the more amazing ’flick-of-the-switch’ turnarounds in NASCAR history.
Meanwhile, Edwards holds steady. Even though Stewart has been talking confidently with the media and trying to rattle Edwards mentally, Edwards has met the challenge. Although he only has one win on the season (Las Vegas), Edwards has 17 top-five finishes on the season, including Sunday’s runner-up finish at Texas.
Stewart gained five points on him Sunday, but still remains 3-points back which makes this weeks race at Phoenix and next week at Homestead one of the more anticipated races ever in the sport.
We’ve seen great finishes down the stretch like last season when Jimmie Johnson overtook Denny Hamlin to win his unprecedented fifth straight title, but that’s just it. Johnson isn’t involved and there is a bit more excitement with having two new faces finally racing for the title. Nothing against Johnson, he’s one of the best ever, but NASCAR fans for some reason don’t like continued excellence.
Tony Stewart is a driver that almost everyone universally likes. He’s a two-time NASCAR Champion and is also the last driver other than Johnson to win a championship back in 2005.
He is the sentimental choice to win and is now also the co-favorite to win according to odds posted at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Just three weeks ago following Talladega, Stewart was listed at 9-to-2. Following his Martinsville win two weeks ago, he was EVEN money. With two races left, he is now 10-to-11, the same odds posted on Edwards even though Edwards has a slight lead.
At this juncture last season, Edwards took control and gave us a preview of what was in store for the No. 99 team in 2011. He won at Phoenix and then Homestead to close the season out.
In their first go around at Phoenix this season in February, Edwards had the best car on the track throughout practice and sat on the pole, but he got was the victim of a loose Kyle Busch car early forcing the team to make an early visit to the garage and eventually settled for a 28th-place finish. Stewart finished seventh in the race.
Stewart won at Phoenix in his first Cup start there in 1999. The win didn’t come as much of a shock because of his past experience there in USAC and Indy cars. What has been shocking is that he hasn’t won at Phoenix since then, a span of 18 races. He’s been runner-up on three occasions, the last coming in 2009, which is also his last top-five finish on the track.
A great tool to better prepare for who might win this week is to look back at the past races held at Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire this season. The February Phoenix race was so long ago that it may not be a great indicator to what will happen Sunday, but Richmond last ran September 10 and New Hampshire September 25 making it very relevant.
Each of three tracks are different in size and configuration, but the flat banking and similar distances make them so similar to the point that most crew chiefs use the same chassis for each of the races.
At Richmond, Edwards finished second with Stewart coming in eighth. At New Hampshire, Stewart won with Edwards finishing eighth.
The driver that perhaps stood out the most in those two races from a consistency basis was Jeff Gordon, who happened to win the Phoenix race in February making him one of the favorites to win this week.
Jimmie Johnson has been a terror at Phoenix over his last 10 races there finishing no worse than fifth in each start. He has won four times over that span, the last coming in the fall of 2009.
Like his teammate Stewart, Ryan Newman had plenty of USAC experience at Phoenix, but never cashed in on it until last spring when he finally won after 15 starts on the track. Since then, Newman has finished second and was fifth in February.
Kevin Harvick is sitting third in points, 33-point behind Edwards, and is 30-to-1 at the Hilton for those thinking that something crazy is in store for us the next two weeks. He is a two-time winner at Phoenix and has finished sixth and fourth, respectively, in his last two starts there.
The track did a repaving job which may wipe away much of the past trends, or at least make the drivers drive much differently according to Edwards.
“Phoenix is really a big unknown," Edwards said earlier this week. "I would say this first trip will be more of a crew chief/engineer race. You’re going to have to pay attention to tire wear. The setup is going to be very important. The track is very smooth and easy to drive. I don’t know that you’ll be able to go there and manhandle the car and hustle it around there like you could at the old Phoenix, at least not this first time.”
Kyle Busch comes off his one race suspension and rolls into a familiar place where the Busch brothers have had some past controversy. In 2005, Kurt Busch won at Phoenix in the spring. In the fall race that year, he was arrested on DUI suspicion in the outside of the Phoenix track. Because he had just signed a deal to move from Roush racing to Penske, an angry Jack Roush suspended him for the Phoenix race. Kyle Busch in a bit of a brotherly love moment, went on to win the race and dedicated it to his suspended brother.
Kyle Busch hasn’t won at Phoenix since then, but did finish runner-up to Gordon this year. Following that race, Gordon was more excited about passing Busch then actually winning the race. Look for a refocused Kyle Busch to come back string Sunday and win.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
2) #99 Carl Edwards (7/1)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
4) #39 Ryan Newman (25/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
VegasInsider.com
 |
| Edwards won the final two races of 2010, including Phoenix |
Meanwhile, Edwards holds steady. Even though Stewart has been talking confidently with the media and trying to rattle Edwards mentally, Edwards has met the challenge. Although he only has one win on the season (Las Vegas), Edwards has 17 top-five finishes on the season, including Sunday’s runner-up finish at Texas.
Stewart gained five points on him Sunday, but still remains 3-points back which makes this weeks race at Phoenix and next week at Homestead one of the more anticipated races ever in the sport.
We’ve seen great finishes down the stretch like last season when Jimmie Johnson overtook Denny Hamlin to win his unprecedented fifth straight title, but that’s just it. Johnson isn’t involved and there is a bit more excitement with having two new faces finally racing for the title. Nothing against Johnson, he’s one of the best ever, but NASCAR fans for some reason don’t like continued excellence.
Tony Stewart is a driver that almost everyone universally likes. He’s a two-time NASCAR Champion and is also the last driver other than Johnson to win a championship back in 2005.
He is the sentimental choice to win and is now also the co-favorite to win according to odds posted at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Just three weeks ago following Talladega, Stewart was listed at 9-to-2. Following his Martinsville win two weeks ago, he was EVEN money. With two races left, he is now 10-to-11, the same odds posted on Edwards even though Edwards has a slight lead.
At this juncture last season, Edwards took control and gave us a preview of what was in store for the No. 99 team in 2011. He won at Phoenix and then Homestead to close the season out.
Stewart won at Phoenix in his first Cup start there in 1999. The win didn’t come as much of a shock because of his past experience there in USAC and Indy cars. What has been shocking is that he hasn’t won at Phoenix since then, a span of 18 races. He’s been runner-up on three occasions, the last coming in 2009, which is also his last top-five finish on the track.
A great tool to better prepare for who might win this week is to look back at the past races held at Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire this season. The February Phoenix race was so long ago that it may not be a great indicator to what will happen Sunday, but Richmond last ran September 10 and New Hampshire September 25 making it very relevant.
Each of three tracks are different in size and configuration, but the flat banking and similar distances make them so similar to the point that most crew chiefs use the same chassis for each of the races.
At Richmond, Edwards finished second with Stewart coming in eighth. At New Hampshire, Stewart won with Edwards finishing eighth.
The driver that perhaps stood out the most in those two races from a consistency basis was Jeff Gordon, who happened to win the Phoenix race in February making him one of the favorites to win this week.
Jimmie Johnson has been a terror at Phoenix over his last 10 races there finishing no worse than fifth in each start. He has won four times over that span, the last coming in the fall of 2009.
Like his teammate Stewart, Ryan Newman had plenty of USAC experience at Phoenix, but never cashed in on it until last spring when he finally won after 15 starts on the track. Since then, Newman has finished second and was fifth in February.
Kevin Harvick is sitting third in points, 33-point behind Edwards, and is 30-to-1 at the Hilton for those thinking that something crazy is in store for us the next two weeks. He is a two-time winner at Phoenix and has finished sixth and fourth, respectively, in his last two starts there.
The track did a repaving job which may wipe away much of the past trends, or at least make the drivers drive much differently according to Edwards.
“Phoenix is really a big unknown," Edwards said earlier this week. "I would say this first trip will be more of a crew chief/engineer race. You’re going to have to pay attention to tire wear. The setup is going to be very important. The track is very smooth and easy to drive. I don’t know that you’ll be able to go there and manhandle the car and hustle it around there like you could at the old Phoenix, at least not this first time.”
Kyle Busch comes off his one race suspension and rolls into a familiar place where the Busch brothers have had some past controversy. In 2005, Kurt Busch won at Phoenix in the spring. In the fall race that year, he was arrested on DUI suspicion in the outside of the Phoenix track. Because he had just signed a deal to move from Roush racing to Penske, an angry Jack Roush suspended him for the Phoenix race. Kyle Busch in a bit of a brotherly love moment, went on to win the race and dedicated it to his suspended brother.
Kyle Busch hasn’t won at Phoenix since then, but did finish runner-up to Gordon this year. Following that race, Gordon was more excited about passing Busch then actually winning the race. Look for a refocused Kyle Busch to come back string Sunday and win.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
2) #99 Carl Edwards (7/1)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
4) #39 Ryan Newman (25/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Edwards Hoping to Extend Points Lead at Phoenix
 |
| Carl Edwards will be looking to duplicate his performance from last season |
Team: No. 99 Aflac Ford Fusion
Crew Chief: Bob Osborne
Chassis: RK-782 This car last raced at Loudon in Sept., finished eighth
QUOTES
Carl Edwards on racing at Phoenix: “Phoenix is really a big unknown. I would say this first trip will be more of a crew chief/engineer race. You’re going to have to pay attention to tire wear. The setup is going to be very important. The track is very smooth and easy to drive. I don’t know that you’ll be able to go there and manhandle the car and hustle it around there like you could at the old Phoenix, at least not this first time.”
Crew chief Bob Osborne on racing at Phoenix: “I still like Phoenix a lot. There are definitely some issues that are going to have to be overcome this weekend for track grip and multi-lane racing. Right now it is a one-lane race track and that is not going to bode well for racing. It is going to be a little scary if they don’t get two lanes at least going there.”
FAST FACTS
* THE CHASE IS ON…Carl Edwards enters Phoenix leading the NASCAR Sprint Cup point standings by three points over Tony Stewart. He has earned one win, 17 top-five, 24 top-10 finishes and two poles this season.
* DEFENDING WINNER…Edwards won last year’s Phoenix race in November after leading 93 laps. He broke a 70-race winless streak for his first Sprint Cup win there.
* FOR THE RECORD… In 14 starts at the one-mile track, Edwards has one win, five top-five and nine top-10 finishes. His average start is 11.0 and finish of 13.0. Edwards has completed 93.5 percent of laps in Cup competition attempted at Phoenix.
* IN THE LOOP… According to NASCAR’s Loop Statistics compiled over the last 14 races at Phoenix, Edwards has turned 252 of the track’s fastest laps (third most), spent 2,827 laps in the top 15, and has led 201 laps. He has a driver rating of 99.6 (fourth best).
* ON THE TRACK… The No. 99 Aflac crew will unload RK-782 at Phoenix. This car was new at Loudon where Edwards finished eighth with it.
* REWIND, PHOENIX, NOVEMBER 2010… Carl Edwards dominated the weekend at Phoenix International Raceway by winning everything he could including three practice sessions, qualifying, the Nationwide race on Saturday, and most importantly he broke a 70-race winless streak by taking the checkered flag in the Kobalt Tools 500. Edwards led 93 of the 312 laps en route to his 17th-career Sprint Cup Series win.
- Roush Fenway Racing, Press Release
Monday, November 7, 2011
Las Vegas Hlton Super Book Odds to Win Phoenix Kobalt Tools 400
PHOENIX INT'L RACEWAY
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2011
CARL EDWARDS 6
JIMMIE JOHNSON 8
KYLE BUSCH 8
JEFF GORDON 7
MATT KENSETH 12
KEVIN HARVICK 12
DENNY HAMLIN 12
KURT BUSCH 20
TONY STEWART 5
DALE EARNHARDT JR 30
GREG BIFFLE 15
KASEY KAHNE 15
CLINT BOWYER 15
RYAN NEWMAN 20
BRAD KESELOWSKI 20
JOEY LOGANO 60
MARTIN TRUEX JR 50
DAVID RAGAN 60
JUAN MONTOYA 60
MARK MARTIN 40
JEFF BURTON 60
JAMIE McMURRAY 60
BRIAN VICKERS 100
DAVID REUTIMANN 100
PAUL MENARD 60
AJ ALLMENDINGER 60
MARCOS AMBROSE 100
REGAN SMITH 300
BOBBY LABONTE 1000
FIELD 500
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