Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Auto Club 400
Auto Club (California) Speedway
Sunday, March 25, 2012 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Matt Kenseth 8/1 11th 15th 2nd 7th
Three-time winner, the last coming in ’09 following a Daytona 500 win; using Texas fall chassis.
2. Tony Stewart 7/1 14th 9th 4th 10th
2010 winner with a 14.1 average finish; using new chassis, a clone to winning Las Vegas car.
3. Denny Hamlin 20/1 5th 1st 1st 1st
By far the best car in all practice sessions, but downgraded due to 19.1 average finish in 11 starts.
4. Kevin Harvick 10/1 15th 7th 5th 7th
2011 winner and runner-up in 2010; the Bakersfield, CA native is using a new chassis this week.
5. Jimmie Johnson 6/1 9th 10th 9th 6th
Five-time winner with track record 5.1 average finish; third or better in eight of last nine starts.
6. Kyle Busch 7/1 12th 2nd 6th 5th
2005 winner, his first career Cup win, with nine top-10 finishes in 14 starts; strong practices.
7. Greg Biffle 12/1 8th 4th 14th 20th
2005 winner; using new chassis he claims “the best car to ever come out of Roush-Fenway shop.”
8. Jeff Gordon 8/1 23rd 21st 17th 2nd
Three-time winner, the last coming in 2004. Practiced very well in the sun, but slow under clouds.
9. Clint Bowyer 30/1 1st 11th 11th 3rd
2010 fall runner-up with a 10.6 average in 11 starts. MWR driver will soon break through with win.
10. Ryan Newman 30/1 7th 6th 3rd 18th
Two consecutive fifth-place finishes; strong practice 2 long runs. Using ‘11 Michigan chassis.
Note: Although different in size, results the March 11 Las Vegas race can be used as a barometer to help determine what drivers may have an edge this week at California.
Odds courtesy of the LVH Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Betting Notes: Boy, this is a tough one. Denny Hamlin is just giving us all kinds of reasons to bet him to win and play him in every match-up. During practice he was fast in the shade, fast in the sun, fast in qualifying trim and fast in race trim. The guy should run away with the race, but the only problem is that we’ve never seen it before.
He won at Fontana’s sister-track of Michigan last year, but at California he has a less than flattering 19.2 average finish with only one top-5. The biggest variable from now to all his past races is his new crew chief, Darian Grubb. Grubb was able to set-up a car for Tony Stewart to get his first career win on the track in 2010, 11 years after Stewart began his career. Grubb was also behind most of Jimmie Johnson’s California success as part of the Lowe’s team.
The Grubb angle is a huge one, especially since they’ve already won this season. The only problem I have personally is being gun shy about the sexiest in practice. The last three weeks Kasey Kahne has looked the best only to see his day cut short by an assortment of issues, mostly operator error.
What’s funny is that I am not betting Kahne at all this week and he has a car good enough to compete for a win or top-5, but I’m tired of beating a dead horse. He will win soon, though.
I’m sticking with the meat-and-potatoes this week and will hope for Kenseth, Stewart, Harvick or Biffle to get the win. If some juicy odds come about on Bowyer or Newman, I may be tempted as well.
Match-up of the week: Michael Watrip Racing drivers vs. anyone, almost anyone
The MWR drivers are on a major upward trend. Clint Boywer, Martin Truex Jr and Mark Martin all have stout cars capable of finishing within the top-10, yet they’ll be paired up with lesser drivers.
Showing posts with label race predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label race predictions. Show all posts
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
2012 California Auto Club 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
It will be interesting to see what kind crowd shows up for this weekends NASCAR race at Auto Club (California) Speedway after witnessing the rapid attendance decline at Bristol Sunday. Once the hardest ticket to get in sports, it was disappointing to see a 160,000 seat beast like Bristol only have about 90,000 in attendance. The type of racing Bristol produces on their new surface may contribute to the demise, but there is something more to it.
Does NASCAR cost to much for a family to attend in this still depressed economic climate and is the sport in a decline after seeing monster growth at the end of the 1990’s? The answer to both is Yes.
California seats only 80,000, but because of declining attendance they had one of their two dates stripped from them before the start of the 2011 season. Last season with only one date, the Fontana, CA track was relatively full for the first time in nearly five years. But the problem with a track in Southern California is that there is so much to do on a weekend that always has perfect weather. NASCAR is low on the list that includes beaches, Hollywood and just the overall LA vibe. The people that attend the Fontana races usually aren’t from the area and require folks from elsewhere to fill the seats.
This weeks race is the fifth of the season, but yet west coast fans have already been treated to events in Las Vegas and Phoenix. Fontana will lose out to those two facilities on just about every traveling NASCAR fans' bucket-list. Not even Danica Patrick driving (which she isn’t this week) can change NASCAR’s appeal in SoCal.
But even if we don’t want to go to the race there, we’ll still be watching it on television and betting it at the sports books. The first four races have been fantastic with four different winners, won by four different manufacturers, on four different tracks and not even a hint on who is going to be the driver beat during the Chase. The favorites of Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson both look like they’re still in the midst of working out some issues while longer shots like Greg Biffle and last weeks winner, Brad Keselowski, create some intrigue.
The driver that no one seems to be talking about that has quietly gone about his business is Kevin Harvick who is currently second in points, nine points behind Biffle. Harvick captured his first win at what is deemed his home track last year in this race. He fiished runner-up in this race in 2010. Just because of those two runs he has to be considered a candidate to win.
“I just enjoy how the track has really spread out and the groove you can run from the bottom to the top," said Harvick who will be using a brand new chassis this week. "It’s also fun to race in front of a lot of your fans and friends that get to come to the race track from close to where we used to live.”
With only four races run and not having any track that is similar to go off of, we have to use last seasons race as a barometer along with past history there. We can also use a little bit of the Las Vegas results because both require lots of horse power even though the tracks run completely different.
Having established Las Vegas as part of the equation, we have to include Tony Stewart into all talk about who might win this week. Stewart had never won at Fontana until taking the checkers in 2010. Since 2009, a span of five races, Stewart has finished 13th or better with two top-5 finishes.
Fontana’s all-time leader in wins is Jimmie Johnson with five, including his first Cup win in 2002 during his rookie season. He has a sick 5.1 average in 17 starts that includes five runner-up finishes. Last season was one of those occasions when Harvick passed him late for the win. To take Johnson’s amazing feat even further on a recent basis, he’s finished in the top-3 in eight of his last nine starts there. So what makes him so good there?
“I’ve been really successful at Auto Club Speedway," Johnson said earlier this week. "It’s my home track. We got our first Sprint Cup career win there in ’02, so it’s a special track to me. I definitely always see some friends and family while we are out there. I remember last year, we were very close to victory lane, about three-quarters of a mile away from the trophy, but Kevin Harvick found a way around the outside. So, I know we’ll go there and be very competitive this time."
Johnson should be very competitive, not only because of his past record, but also because of the car he's bringing this week. He'll be using the same chassis that led 197 laps en route to a win at Kansas last season.
Whenever Johnson isn’t winning there, it’s a good probability that Matt Kenseth is. Kenseth is a three-time winner with an average finish of 9.9. We also have some similarities this year from the last time he won in 2009. It was also the same season he won the Daytona 500. Not that the two tracks correlate, but it is unique nonetheless.
“Fontana has always has been a track that I really enjoy racing at but it has changed a lot the last few years," said Kenseth. "It seems like we used to have a better handle on it before it got really rough, the cracks got wide, it wore out and the groove moved up so much. It is a really fun track and really challenging because of the huge cracks in the corners you have to drive around combined with the seams in the pavement. In order to have a good car, you have to get through the corners faster than everybody else. Everyone thinks it is a big horsepower track because it is a two-mile track, but it gets so slick and there is not a lot of grip in the corners as the run goes on. You just need to really have your car balanced well and have that momentum through the corners.”
Kenseth will be driving the same chassis that finished fourth in the fall Texas race last season.
Drivers we can also expect to do well include Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Biffle and maybe Edwards. No one is more scared of how Edwards season has gone thus far than him, except for maybe a bettor who took him to win the championship.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
2) #14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
4) #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
VegasInsider.com
 |
| Bristol is no longer the toughest ticket in sports |
Does NASCAR cost to much for a family to attend in this still depressed economic climate and is the sport in a decline after seeing monster growth at the end of the 1990’s? The answer to both is Yes.
California seats only 80,000, but because of declining attendance they had one of their two dates stripped from them before the start of the 2011 season. Last season with only one date, the Fontana, CA track was relatively full for the first time in nearly five years. But the problem with a track in Southern California is that there is so much to do on a weekend that always has perfect weather. NASCAR is low on the list that includes beaches, Hollywood and just the overall LA vibe. The people that attend the Fontana races usually aren’t from the area and require folks from elsewhere to fill the seats.
This weeks race is the fifth of the season, but yet west coast fans have already been treated to events in Las Vegas and Phoenix. Fontana will lose out to those two facilities on just about every traveling NASCAR fans' bucket-list. Not even Danica Patrick driving (which she isn’t this week) can change NASCAR’s appeal in SoCal.
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| Championship looks up for grabs in 2012 (Getty) |
The driver that no one seems to be talking about that has quietly gone about his business is Kevin Harvick who is currently second in points, nine points behind Biffle. Harvick captured his first win at what is deemed his home track last year in this race. He fiished runner-up in this race in 2010. Just because of those two runs he has to be considered a candidate to win.
“I just enjoy how the track has really spread out and the groove you can run from the bottom to the top," said Harvick who will be using a brand new chassis this week. "It’s also fun to race in front of a lot of your fans and friends that get to come to the race track from close to where we used to live.”
With only four races run and not having any track that is similar to go off of, we have to use last seasons race as a barometer along with past history there. We can also use a little bit of the Las Vegas results because both require lots of horse power even though the tracks run completely different.
Having established Las Vegas as part of the equation, we have to include Tony Stewart into all talk about who might win this week. Stewart had never won at Fontana until taking the checkers in 2010. Since 2009, a span of five races, Stewart has finished 13th or better with two top-5 finishes.
Fontana’s all-time leader in wins is Jimmie Johnson with five, including his first Cup win in 2002 during his rookie season. He has a sick 5.1 average in 17 starts that includes five runner-up finishes. Last season was one of those occasions when Harvick passed him late for the win. To take Johnson’s amazing feat even further on a recent basis, he’s finished in the top-3 in eight of his last nine starts there. So what makes him so good there?
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| Johnson and Harvick have dueled last 2 years at Fontana |
Johnson should be very competitive, not only because of his past record, but also because of the car he's bringing this week. He'll be using the same chassis that led 197 laps en route to a win at Kansas last season.
Whenever Johnson isn’t winning there, it’s a good probability that Matt Kenseth is. Kenseth is a three-time winner with an average finish of 9.9. We also have some similarities this year from the last time he won in 2009. It was also the same season he won the Daytona 500. Not that the two tracks correlate, but it is unique nonetheless.
“Fontana has always has been a track that I really enjoy racing at but it has changed a lot the last few years," said Kenseth. "It seems like we used to have a better handle on it before it got really rough, the cracks got wide, it wore out and the groove moved up so much. It is a really fun track and really challenging because of the huge cracks in the corners you have to drive around combined with the seams in the pavement. In order to have a good car, you have to get through the corners faster than everybody else. Everyone thinks it is a big horsepower track because it is a two-mile track, but it gets so slick and there is not a lot of grip in the corners as the run goes on. You just need to really have your car balanced well and have that momentum through the corners.”
Kenseth will be driving the same chassis that finished fourth in the fall Texas race last season.
Drivers we can also expect to do well include Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Biffle and maybe Edwards. No one is more scared of how Edwards season has gone thus far than him, except for maybe a bettor who took him to win the championship.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
2) #14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
4) #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Final 2012 Bristol Food City 500 Driver Ratings Following All Practices
Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 18, 2012 - 10:16 am (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Kyle Busch 5/1 10th 13th 2nd 2nd
Five time winner, including ‘11 spring race and four of his last six starts; new chassis this week.
2. Brad Keselowski 15/1 23rd 5th 21st 4th
2011 fall winner; had a great final practice on long runs, using new chassis this week.
3. Kasey Kahne 12/1 21st 10th 6th 5th
2007 runner-up; best average speeds in practice 3, best 10 consecutive lap average in practice 2.
4. Jeff Gordon 10/1 6th 4th 14th 9th
Five-time winner, the last coming in 2002; five top-5 finishes in last 11 starts
5. Ryan Newman 25/1 5th 3rd 3rd 1st
2004 runner-up, his last top-5 finish. Stellar final practice with best 10 consecutive lap average.
6. Greg Biffle 12/1 11th 1st 4th 15th
11.8 average finish in 18 starts with no career short track wins; team is in a groove right now.
7. A.J. Allmendinger 50/1 2nd 2nd 1st 17th
Outstanding two days of practices with fast average speeds; using new chassis this week.
8. Martin Truex Jr. 25/1 9th 15th 5th 8th
2011 fall runner-up; had third fastest average speeds in final practice.
9. Matt Kenseth 12/1 17th 21st 9th 9th
Two time winner with 6.2 average finish in last four starts; using new chassis this week.
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1 15th 18th 12th 12th
2004 winner with 11.7 average finish; second fastest average speeds in final practice.
Note: Kahne, Earnhardt Jr and Truex Jr’s fastest average speeds are based among all drivers that ran at least 60 laps in final practice. Jeff Burton ran a session high 108 laps, Jimmie Johnson 102.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Betting Notes:
Kasey Kahne has been driving me nuts the last three weeks with his practices. His car has looked the best at Phoenix, Las Vegas and now Bristol. He didn’t fare well in either of the two previous races, but I still have to take a shot on him to win.
Kyle Busch is the driver to beat not only because of his five wins at Bristol, but also because of his speed in Saturday’s practice. He’s got some power, especially on short runs, and if it comes down to Busch on re-start with 10 laps to go, he won’t be beat.
Because Busch’s odds are so low (5/1), it makes the betting equation a little more difficult. You can’t leave him out, but you also can’t deny how good some of the others like Kahne looked. In addition to Kahne, Brad Keselowski, A.J. Allmendinger and Martin Truex Jr look great and all of them have great prices. Ryan Newman and Dale Earnhardt Jr are even worth pondering a play.
Match-up of the week: Anyone against Tony Stewart
For some reason, this just isn’t one of Stewart’s best tracks. He’s only had three top-5 finishes in his last 20 starts and his only win came in 2001. His last three starts have seen him finish 28th, 19th and 27th.
Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 18, 2012 - 10:16 am (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Kyle Busch 5/1 10th 13th 2nd 2nd
Five time winner, including ‘11 spring race and four of his last six starts; new chassis this week.
2. Brad Keselowski 15/1 23rd 5th 21st 4th
2011 fall winner; had a great final practice on long runs, using new chassis this week.
3. Kasey Kahne 12/1 21st 10th 6th 5th
2007 runner-up; best average speeds in practice 3, best 10 consecutive lap average in practice 2.
4. Jeff Gordon 10/1 6th 4th 14th 9th
Five-time winner, the last coming in 2002; five top-5 finishes in last 11 starts
5. Ryan Newman 25/1 5th 3rd 3rd 1st
2004 runner-up, his last top-5 finish. Stellar final practice with best 10 consecutive lap average.
6. Greg Biffle 12/1 11th 1st 4th 15th
11.8 average finish in 18 starts with no career short track wins; team is in a groove right now.
7. A.J. Allmendinger 50/1 2nd 2nd 1st 17th
Outstanding two days of practices with fast average speeds; using new chassis this week.
8. Martin Truex Jr. 25/1 9th 15th 5th 8th
2011 fall runner-up; had third fastest average speeds in final practice.
9. Matt Kenseth 12/1 17th 21st 9th 9th
Two time winner with 6.2 average finish in last four starts; using new chassis this week.
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1 15th 18th 12th 12th
2004 winner with 11.7 average finish; second fastest average speeds in final practice.
Note: Kahne, Earnhardt Jr and Truex Jr’s fastest average speeds are based among all drivers that ran at least 60 laps in final practice. Jeff Burton ran a session high 108 laps, Jimmie Johnson 102.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Betting Notes:
Kasey Kahne has been driving me nuts the last three weeks with his practices. His car has looked the best at Phoenix, Las Vegas and now Bristol. He didn’t fare well in either of the two previous races, but I still have to take a shot on him to win.
Kyle Busch is the driver to beat not only because of his five wins at Bristol, but also because of his speed in Saturday’s practice. He’s got some power, especially on short runs, and if it comes down to Busch on re-start with 10 laps to go, he won’t be beat.
Because Busch’s odds are so low (5/1), it makes the betting equation a little more difficult. You can’t leave him out, but you also can’t deny how good some of the others like Kahne looked. In addition to Kahne, Brad Keselowski, A.J. Allmendinger and Martin Truex Jr look great and all of them have great prices. Ryan Newman and Dale Earnhardt Jr are even worth pondering a play.
Match-up of the week: Anyone against Tony Stewart
For some reason, this just isn’t one of Stewart’s best tracks. He’s only had three top-5 finishes in his last 20 starts and his only win came in 2001. His last three starts have seen him finish 28th, 19th and 27th.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
2012 Bristol Food City 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Last week in Las Vegas we got to see some major horsepower displayed, but not a lot of drivers were mixing it up while running in single file for most of the day. This week at Bristol we get some side-by-side short track racing which usually brings and the best and worst of drivers. The drama created on the track translates into must-see TV throughout the race.
“Racing at Bristol is like fighter jets in a gymnasium," said Carl Edwards earlier this week. "The banking is so high, you drive down in the corner and the forces pushing the car into the track seem so much greater than anywhere else we go. The rate at which the car is changing direction is very fast. It always takes me a few laps in the race, 10-15 laps in, to get comfortable with the pace of it because things are happening so quickly there.
Bristol is a high banked half-mile track that has multiple grooves allowing drivers to pass either high or low. We don’t see the type of love taps or punts we used to under the old layout where drivers fought for the bottom line, but the best thing about Bristol stills remains: it’s tight and cramped with all 43 drivers trying to create their own space when very little is available.
The favorite coming into this weeks race is Kyle Busch due to winning four of the last six races run there. He has five wins in 14 starts and it would seem appropriate that a driver with the nickname “Rowdy” would be the driver to beat on a track like Bristol.
“I’m not exactly sure what makes me so good at Bristol," said Busch when asked about his Bristol success. "I’ve just had a lot of success there, but I’ve also had some misfortune there, too. Ever since I got through my rookie year, I’ve just taken a liking to the place. Of course, I’ve been able to get some help from my brother (Kurt). He’s always been really, really good there. But, when they changed the track to this current surface, I just really took to it right away. I really liked it and I’ve been fast there, but also I’ve had great racecars from Joe Gibbs Racing."
The timing for Bristol couldn’t have come at a better time for Busch because he’s still searching for a good run that meets his standards. He’s had only one top-10 finish in the three races run thus far and currently sits 12th in points. The one positive out of Busch so far is that despite not having great cars, he’s been able take the finish allowed by the car and not try and push it more than it was capable of. The fact that he’s 12th right now could be a sign of maturity and finally understanding big picture racing.
Busch will be using a brand new chassis this week with hopes of getting his sixth career Bristol win and make him the active leader among drivers. He'll be half way to the track record of 12 held by Darrell Waltrip.
Carl Edwards is a two-time winner at Bristol that probably feels very fortunate to be where he’s at right now. In the last two races, Edwards did not have a good car, but what they did last week was amazing. After looking terrible in Saturday’s final practices, Edwards crew had to make the car better during the race. Edwards was not a contender throughout running outside the top-15, but during each pit stop, they got progressively better until ultimately finishing in fifth-place. That is the sign of championship team. Edwards best finish over the last six Bristol races was runner-up in this race last season.
Edwards will be using a chassis that saw action last season at Chicago (fourth-place) and Dover (third-place).
Sitting atop the leader board in points is Edwards’ teammate Greg Biffle. After three races, he’s the only driver to finish in the top-5 in all three. Bristol has been one of Biffle’s better tracks over his career. Although he’s never won a Cup race there, he does have an 11.8 average finish position that includes six top-5 finishes. This team is really clicking right now and although it’s early, he might be a driver to take an early shot with to win the championship. The LVH Super Book updated their future odds with Biffle at 12-to-1.
The favorites to win the championship are currently Edwards and Jimmie Johnson at 5-to-1. Just like Edwards, Johnson’s team showed why they are five-time champs. After wrecking their primary car in final practice, the No. 48 team got their back-up off the hauler and set-up in time for Johnson to run the final 20 minutes of practice. They worked on their car making it better in each pit stop and went on to contend for the win until ultimately settling for a runner-up finish.
Bristol had not been one of Johnson’s best tracks, but when they changed to the variable banking it made the track run like a mini-Dover and Johnson excelled. He captured a win in 2010 and has finished no worse than eighth in five of his last six starts.
Johnson has a pretty good car this week as well. In five 2011 starts, the chassis never finished worse than ninth and included runner-up finishes at California and Atlanta.
Matt Kenseth is a two-time Bristol winner, doing so on the old layout. He’s finished in the top-10 in each of his last five Bristol starts with a best of fourth in this race last season. He'll be using a brand new car this week.
Jeff Gordon is a five-time Bristol winner, the last coming in 2002. He’s been competitive on the new layout with three top-5 finishes, including a best of third in the fall race last season.
Tony Stewart has an even larger gap in time from his last win than Gordon does. Stewart thought Bristol was easy after winning in 2001, but since then he’s managed only three top-5 finishes in 20 starts. He was runner-up in 2010, but his last three starts have seen him finish 19th or worse.
Brad Keselowski charged hard for the win last fall and just like Kyle Busch, this track suits his attitude perfect. With all the heat on Kyle Busch from NASCAR and his sponsors, we don’t get to see the true “Rowdy” come out to play anymore, but Keselowski could be that type of villain we like to love and hate at the same time. Here’s to hoping Keselwoski picks a fight Sunday afternoon and shakes some things up in the series.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
2) #16 Greg Biffle (14/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
4) #17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
5) # 2 Brad Keselowski (18/1)
VegasInsider.com
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| Kyle Busch has been king of the concrete (Getty) |
“Racing at Bristol is like fighter jets in a gymnasium," said Carl Edwards earlier this week. "The banking is so high, you drive down in the corner and the forces pushing the car into the track seem so much greater than anywhere else we go. The rate at which the car is changing direction is very fast. It always takes me a few laps in the race, 10-15 laps in, to get comfortable with the pace of it because things are happening so quickly there.
Bristol is a high banked half-mile track that has multiple grooves allowing drivers to pass either high or low. We don’t see the type of love taps or punts we used to under the old layout where drivers fought for the bottom line, but the best thing about Bristol stills remains: it’s tight and cramped with all 43 drivers trying to create their own space when very little is available.
The favorite coming into this weeks race is Kyle Busch due to winning four of the last six races run there. He has five wins in 14 starts and it would seem appropriate that a driver with the nickname “Rowdy” would be the driver to beat on a track like Bristol.
“I’m not exactly sure what makes me so good at Bristol," said Busch when asked about his Bristol success. "I’ve just had a lot of success there, but I’ve also had some misfortune there, too. Ever since I got through my rookie year, I’ve just taken a liking to the place. Of course, I’ve been able to get some help from my brother (Kurt). He’s always been really, really good there. But, when they changed the track to this current surface, I just really took to it right away. I really liked it and I’ve been fast there, but also I’ve had great racecars from Joe Gibbs Racing."
The timing for Bristol couldn’t have come at a better time for Busch because he’s still searching for a good run that meets his standards. He’s had only one top-10 finish in the three races run thus far and currently sits 12th in points. The one positive out of Busch so far is that despite not having great cars, he’s been able take the finish allowed by the car and not try and push it more than it was capable of. The fact that he’s 12th right now could be a sign of maturity and finally understanding big picture racing.
Busch will be using a brand new chassis this week with hopes of getting his sixth career Bristol win and make him the active leader among drivers. He'll be half way to the track record of 12 held by Darrell Waltrip.
Carl Edwards is a two-time winner at Bristol that probably feels very fortunate to be where he’s at right now. In the last two races, Edwards did not have a good car, but what they did last week was amazing. After looking terrible in Saturday’s final practices, Edwards crew had to make the car better during the race. Edwards was not a contender throughout running outside the top-15, but during each pit stop, they got progressively better until ultimately finishing in fifth-place. That is the sign of championship team. Edwards best finish over the last six Bristol races was runner-up in this race last season.
Edwards will be using a chassis that saw action last season at Chicago (fourth-place) and Dover (third-place).
Sitting atop the leader board in points is Edwards’ teammate Greg Biffle. After three races, he’s the only driver to finish in the top-5 in all three. Bristol has been one of Biffle’s better tracks over his career. Although he’s never won a Cup race there, he does have an 11.8 average finish position that includes six top-5 finishes. This team is really clicking right now and although it’s early, he might be a driver to take an early shot with to win the championship. The LVH Super Book updated their future odds with Biffle at 12-to-1.
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| Johnson has adapted well to Bristol's new surface (Getty) |
Bristol had not been one of Johnson’s best tracks, but when they changed to the variable banking it made the track run like a mini-Dover and Johnson excelled. He captured a win in 2010 and has finished no worse than eighth in five of his last six starts.
Johnson has a pretty good car this week as well. In five 2011 starts, the chassis never finished worse than ninth and included runner-up finishes at California and Atlanta.
Matt Kenseth is a two-time Bristol winner, doing so on the old layout. He’s finished in the top-10 in each of his last five Bristol starts with a best of fourth in this race last season. He'll be using a brand new car this week.
Jeff Gordon is a five-time Bristol winner, the last coming in 2002. He’s been competitive on the new layout with three top-5 finishes, including a best of third in the fall race last season.
Tony Stewart has an even larger gap in time from his last win than Gordon does. Stewart thought Bristol was easy after winning in 2001, but since then he’s managed only three top-5 finishes in 20 starts. He was runner-up in 2010, but his last three starts have seen him finish 19th or worse.
Brad Keselowski charged hard for the win last fall and just like Kyle Busch, this track suits his attitude perfect. With all the heat on Kyle Busch from NASCAR and his sponsors, we don’t get to see the true “Rowdy” come out to play anymore, but Keselowski could be that type of villain we like to love and hate at the same time. Here’s to hoping Keselwoski picks a fight Sunday afternoon and shakes some things up in the series.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
2) #16 Greg Biffle (14/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
4) #17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
5) # 2 Brad Keselowski (18/1)
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Final 2012 Las Vegas Kobalt Tools 400 Driver Ratings Following All Practices
Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Kobalt Tools 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Kasey Kahne 10/1 8th 1st 2nd 8th
2004 runner-up with 14.9 average finish in 8 starts; had strongest overall practices.
2. Tony Stewart 8/1 3rd 7th 10th 13th
Two-time runner-up, one of only three tracks yet to win at; using winning ‘11 Chicago chassis.
3. Kevin Harvick 10/1 10th 3rd 12th 2nd
2010 runner-up with a 13.2 average finish in 11 starts. Fastest average speeds in final practice.
4. Matt Kenseth 7/1 11th 11th 24th 7th
Two-time winner with 11.7 average finish in 12 starts; using ‘11 chassis that won two races.
5. Jimmie Johnson 8/1 1st 6th 4th 24th
Four-time winner with track best 10.6 average finish; using back-up car after wreck in practice.
6. Mark Martin 30/1 9th 13th 21st 3rd
1998 inaugural winner with 13.1 average finish; one of only four drivers to start every Vegas race.
7. Kyle Busch 8/1 20th 2nd 5th 19th
Won in 2009 starting from the rear (engine change); using back-up car and again starts from rear.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr 30/1 6th 4th 1st 17th
Two-time runner-up with 16.8 average finish in 12 starts; using ‘11 Homestead chassis.
9. Marcos Ambrose 50/1 4th 15th 16th 4th
Using same chassis that finished fourth at Vegas and fifth at Charlotte; looked good in practice.
10. Greg Biffle 12/1 5th 9th 7th 15th
Best finish of third in 2008 with a 14.8 average finish; using Texas chassis that ran as No. 6 in ‘11.
Note: Two-time winner Carl Edwards was one of the favorites to win coming into the weekend, but poor practices revealed that he might struggle again like he did last week at Phoenix.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Practice Notes:
I’m a little gun shy with Kasey Kahne after taking a beating in backing him last week in Phoenix. It’s almost the exact same circumstances this week as Kahne comes in with the most impressive practice sessions. He’ll be starting from the pole and should contend for the win, but he’ll have to be careful carrying all that speed around turn four. Several drivers have found themselves in trouble there this weekend.
Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick haven’t been talked about much during the week, but they both have the look of a winner this week. A win at Las Vegas would be a first for each and also a first for Richard Childress Racing.
Dale Earnhardt Jr is an interesting look at 30-to-1 because he was so solid in all of the practices. It’s been quite a while since we saw Junior look so good during a practice on these kind of tracks, but he’s on par with all the other Hendrick drivers that should fare well Sunday.
Match-up of the week:
Matt Kenseth -110 vs. Carl Edwards: Based on what I saw in practice, Edwards looks to be a driver that will be 20th or worse all race. Kenseth should have a top-5 car and could contend for the win.
Final Practice Speeds - 10 Consecutive Lap Averages
Kobalt Tools 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Kasey Kahne 10/1 8th 1st 2nd 8th
2004 runner-up with 14.9 average finish in 8 starts; had strongest overall practices.
2. Tony Stewart 8/1 3rd 7th 10th 13th
Two-time runner-up, one of only three tracks yet to win at; using winning ‘11 Chicago chassis.
3. Kevin Harvick 10/1 10th 3rd 12th 2nd
2010 runner-up with a 13.2 average finish in 11 starts. Fastest average speeds in final practice.
4. Matt Kenseth 7/1 11th 11th 24th 7th
Two-time winner with 11.7 average finish in 12 starts; using ‘11 chassis that won two races.
5. Jimmie Johnson 8/1 1st 6th 4th 24th
Four-time winner with track best 10.6 average finish; using back-up car after wreck in practice.
6. Mark Martin 30/1 9th 13th 21st 3rd
1998 inaugural winner with 13.1 average finish; one of only four drivers to start every Vegas race.
7. Kyle Busch 8/1 20th 2nd 5th 19th
Won in 2009 starting from the rear (engine change); using back-up car and again starts from rear.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr 30/1 6th 4th 1st 17th
Two-time runner-up with 16.8 average finish in 12 starts; using ‘11 Homestead chassis.
9. Marcos Ambrose 50/1 4th 15th 16th 4th
Using same chassis that finished fourth at Vegas and fifth at Charlotte; looked good in practice.
10. Greg Biffle 12/1 5th 9th 7th 15th
Best finish of third in 2008 with a 14.8 average finish; using Texas chassis that ran as No. 6 in ‘11.
Note: Two-time winner Carl Edwards was one of the favorites to win coming into the weekend, but poor practices revealed that he might struggle again like he did last week at Phoenix.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Practice Notes:
I’m a little gun shy with Kasey Kahne after taking a beating in backing him last week in Phoenix. It’s almost the exact same circumstances this week as Kahne comes in with the most impressive practice sessions. He’ll be starting from the pole and should contend for the win, but he’ll have to be careful carrying all that speed around turn four. Several drivers have found themselves in trouble there this weekend.
Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick haven’t been talked about much during the week, but they both have the look of a winner this week. A win at Las Vegas would be a first for each and also a first for Richard Childress Racing.
Dale Earnhardt Jr is an interesting look at 30-to-1 because he was so solid in all of the practices. It’s been quite a while since we saw Junior look so good during a practice on these kind of tracks, but he’s on par with all the other Hendrick drivers that should fare well Sunday.
Match-up of the week:
Matt Kenseth -110 vs. Carl Edwards: Based on what I saw in practice, Edwards looks to be a driver that will be 20th or worse all race. Kenseth should have a top-5 car and could contend for the win.
Final Practice Speeds - 10 Consecutive Lap Averages
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
2012 Las Vegas Kobalt Tools 400 Preview: Stewart Looking for First Vegas Win
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
I’ve been to NASCAR races across the country with the sole purpose of being entertained, not so much by the race itself, but by the environment a race creates and I can say -- without any hint of hometown bias -- that Las Vegas tops them all.
When you look at all the elements that make a trip fun, Las Vegas is hard to top against any city in the world even without a NASCAR race.
There are places like Daytona and Bristol that capture more of a NASCAR feel, or historical places like Richmond, Darlington or Charlotte where you can almost feel the roots of the sport creeping into your soul, but after that, what are you going to do?
Are there hundreds of restaurants catering to all ends of a budget? Is there dozens of places that your kids can have the time of their life at? Or how about just a quality hotel to stay at with little fear of bed bugs invading your NASCAR weekend? Unlike anywhere else, Las Vegas answers all those questions with a resounding YES
It doesn’t matter whether you come with your family, buddies or by yourself, there is always something for everyone which is why over 150,000 people cram into the Las Vegas Motor Speedway every March while other tracks are seeing declines. Fans want to maximize their dollar on the few vacations they get over a year and Vegas gives them all an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
We have another amenity here in Las Vegas that appeals to some. Gambling.
Casino tables with be jumping all night long with little fear of losing this type crowd to the plush clubs where the new generation seems to spend all their money and time at in Las Vegas. Gambling isn’t a new experience to people from all over the country with all the Indian casinos sprouting up, but there’s no place you can roll the dice in such style and luxury as Vegas.
The one gambling equation that is purely unique to Las Vegas alone is actually being able to bet on the race. Sports books around town appeal to the masses by offering propositions on the race in Super Bowl-style propositions.
Most sports books offer odds to win on the weekly races with a small few offering head-head matchups. But when the Vegas race comes around, every book works diligently to put up as much as they can because the demand far outweighs the supply compared to the other races.
Las Vegas sports books can expect to do 95% more volume for this weekend’s Nationwide and Sprint Cup races than they’ll do for any other race this season, minus the Daytona 500. The only reason the Daytona 500 has so much volume is that the betting is open for almost six weeks before the green flags drops and they capture all the new daily visitors over that time.
Jimmie Johnson comes into this weekend’s Kobalt Tools 400 as the 7-to-1 favorite not just because he’s won at Las Vegas four times in the last seven years, but because his top competitor doesn’t look to be as strong.
Carl Edwards won at Las Vegas last year for the second time, but struggled last week at Phoenix, a track he had the best car at for three straight races prior. It’s not an indication that Edwards will do poorly, but it is a sign that his program might not be as good for the next few weeks which is why he is 10-to-1 and not the favorite.
However, this week Edwards is bringing a chassis to Las Vegas that makes it hard to believe it will run poorly like he ran last week when he ran a brand new car. Some of the great history includes runner-up finishes at Homestead and Texas along with a third-place finish at Charlotte. This car is a stud and should contend for the win.
“Last year was a huge weekend for us and I’m excited to go back," said Edwards. "I love racing at Vegas and it’s a fun place to go for the fans. This will be our first opportunity of the year to run on a 1.5-mile track and to try the things Bob Osborne and everyone at RFR have been working on over the winter. It’s a huge event for us strategically on the schedule to build our intermediate program, which is obviously very important in our quest for the championship.”
The fortunate part for bettors this week is that he did run poorly last week giving perhaps the best value on Edwards on this type of track in two years. Granted, his last win on the series was exactly a year ago at Las Vegas, but 10-to-1 is too hard to pass up. He should be included in all wagering equations this week.
Matt Kenseth is a two-time Las Vegas winner and finally might be able to take a breath of fresh air and enjoy his Daytona 500 victory after being paraded around the county on a publicity tour last week. He’s a great candidate this week just because of his success last season on these type of tracks where he won at Texas and Charlotte, the 1.5-mile sister tracks of Las Vegas. It's also a nice attraction with Kenseth that he's brought the exact same chassis that won both of those races.
“Las Vegas has been a good track for this team and organization, so I’m looking forward to racing there this weekend," said Kenseth's crew chief Jimmy Fennig. "It’s a racetrack I enjoy every year because I always look forward to having a fast race car there, and Matt (Kenseth) has had a lot of successful races at Las Vegas as well. We’re bringing a car that was a multiple race-winning car last year for us, so we’re hoping to have similar results out of it starting this weekend for our Zest team.”
Las Vegas remains one of the few tracks Tony Stewart has never won at, but he’s been real close with as runner-up twice. Last season he had the victory snatched out of his hand late with a lengthy final pit stop in car that was head and shoulders above everyone else. He won five races in last seasons Chase after not winning any in the first 26 and three of those wins came on 1.5-mile tracks.
It’s an entirely new season with changes to the car, electronic fuel injection and changes to Stewart's team with Steve Addington taking over as crew chief, but Stewart should be in goods hands this week. It was Addington who lead the way for Kyle Busch to win his Cup race in his home town in 2009.
Kevin Harvick has a 13.2 average finish in his 11 Vegas starts, the first of which was his very first Cup start after taking the ride over for Dale Earnhardt. The city is also a special place for the Bakersfield, CA native because it is where he and his wife Delana got married. The couple is expecting their first child this season with hopes adding to the excitement by finishing the year off with Harvick's first championship.
In order to get that championship it starts with tracks like this that dominate the schedule. Whoever does well in Las Vegas sets the tone to who will be good for the remainder of the season. Stewart and Edwards finished in the top-2 at Vegas last season as well as season points. In three of Johnson’s Vegas wins, he went on to win the Championship.
Other drivers we should expect to do well this week include Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle. Kahne looked to have the best car last week at Phoenix, but hit the wall early on to ruin a great opportunity at a win.
Enjoy the race weekend everyone and good luck with all your bets. Most of all, enjoy the city to it’s fullest and let it all hang out. Remember, there’s no last call in Las Vegas.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
#14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
#48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
#99 Carl Edwards (10/1)
#18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
#17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
Be sure to check back later during the week as I'll be posting some notes on how the cars performed in Friday and Saturday practices.
VegasInsider.com
 |
| Bad final pit stop cost Tony Stewart the Vegas win in 2011 (Getty) |
When you look at all the elements that make a trip fun, Las Vegas is hard to top against any city in the world even without a NASCAR race.
There are places like Daytona and Bristol that capture more of a NASCAR feel, or historical places like Richmond, Darlington or Charlotte where you can almost feel the roots of the sport creeping into your soul, but after that, what are you going to do?
Are there hundreds of restaurants catering to all ends of a budget? Is there dozens of places that your kids can have the time of their life at? Or how about just a quality hotel to stay at with little fear of bed bugs invading your NASCAR weekend? Unlike anywhere else, Las Vegas answers all those questions with a resounding YES
It doesn’t matter whether you come with your family, buddies or by yourself, there is always something for everyone which is why over 150,000 people cram into the Las Vegas Motor Speedway every March while other tracks are seeing declines. Fans want to maximize their dollar on the few vacations they get over a year and Vegas gives them all an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
We have another amenity here in Las Vegas that appeals to some. Gambling.
Casino tables with be jumping all night long with little fear of losing this type crowd to the plush clubs where the new generation seems to spend all their money and time at in Las Vegas. Gambling isn’t a new experience to people from all over the country with all the Indian casinos sprouting up, but there’s no place you can roll the dice in such style and luxury as Vegas.
The one gambling equation that is purely unique to Las Vegas alone is actually being able to bet on the race. Sports books around town appeal to the masses by offering propositions on the race in Super Bowl-style propositions.
Most sports books offer odds to win on the weekly races with a small few offering head-head matchups. But when the Vegas race comes around, every book works diligently to put up as much as they can because the demand far outweighs the supply compared to the other races.
Las Vegas sports books can expect to do 95% more volume for this weekend’s Nationwide and Sprint Cup races than they’ll do for any other race this season, minus the Daytona 500. The only reason the Daytona 500 has so much volume is that the betting is open for almost six weeks before the green flags drops and they capture all the new daily visitors over that time.
Jimmie Johnson comes into this weekend’s Kobalt Tools 400 as the 7-to-1 favorite not just because he’s won at Las Vegas four times in the last seven years, but because his top competitor doesn’t look to be as strong.
 |
| Carl Edwards has brought a strong chassis this week (Getty) |
However, this week Edwards is bringing a chassis to Las Vegas that makes it hard to believe it will run poorly like he ran last week when he ran a brand new car. Some of the great history includes runner-up finishes at Homestead and Texas along with a third-place finish at Charlotte. This car is a stud and should contend for the win.
“Last year was a huge weekend for us and I’m excited to go back," said Edwards. "I love racing at Vegas and it’s a fun place to go for the fans. This will be our first opportunity of the year to run on a 1.5-mile track and to try the things Bob Osborne and everyone at RFR have been working on over the winter. It’s a huge event for us strategically on the schedule to build our intermediate program, which is obviously very important in our quest for the championship.”
The fortunate part for bettors this week is that he did run poorly last week giving perhaps the best value on Edwards on this type of track in two years. Granted, his last win on the series was exactly a year ago at Las Vegas, but 10-to-1 is too hard to pass up. He should be included in all wagering equations this week.
 |
| Kenseth is using winning car from Texas and Charlotte |
“Las Vegas has been a good track for this team and organization, so I’m looking forward to racing there this weekend," said Kenseth's crew chief Jimmy Fennig. "It’s a racetrack I enjoy every year because I always look forward to having a fast race car there, and Matt (Kenseth) has had a lot of successful races at Las Vegas as well. We’re bringing a car that was a multiple race-winning car last year for us, so we’re hoping to have similar results out of it starting this weekend for our Zest team.”
Las Vegas remains one of the few tracks Tony Stewart has never won at, but he’s been real close with as runner-up twice. Last season he had the victory snatched out of his hand late with a lengthy final pit stop in car that was head and shoulders above everyone else. He won five races in last seasons Chase after not winning any in the first 26 and three of those wins came on 1.5-mile tracks.
It’s an entirely new season with changes to the car, electronic fuel injection and changes to Stewart's team with Steve Addington taking over as crew chief, but Stewart should be in goods hands this week. It was Addington who lead the way for Kyle Busch to win his Cup race in his home town in 2009.
Kevin Harvick has a 13.2 average finish in his 11 Vegas starts, the first of which was his very first Cup start after taking the ride over for Dale Earnhardt. The city is also a special place for the Bakersfield, CA native because it is where he and his wife Delana got married. The couple is expecting their first child this season with hopes adding to the excitement by finishing the year off with Harvick's first championship.
In order to get that championship it starts with tracks like this that dominate the schedule. Whoever does well in Las Vegas sets the tone to who will be good for the remainder of the season. Stewart and Edwards finished in the top-2 at Vegas last season as well as season points. In three of Johnson’s Vegas wins, he went on to win the Championship.
Other drivers we should expect to do well this week include Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle. Kahne looked to have the best car last week at Phoenix, but hit the wall early on to ruin a great opportunity at a win.
Enjoy the race weekend everyone and good luck with all your bets. Most of all, enjoy the city to it’s fullest and let it all hang out. Remember, there’s no last call in Las Vegas.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
#14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
#48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
#99 Carl Edwards (10/1)
#18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
#17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
Be sure to check back later during the week as I'll be posting some notes on how the cars performed in Friday and Saturday practices.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Homestead-Miami Ford 400 Preview: Everything Points to Edwards
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The dream race match-up is set!
Carl Edwards vs. Tony Stewart in Miami for all the marbles, trophies and accolades that come with winning a NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship. Edwards maintained his 3-point lead over Stewart with a runner-up finish last week at Phoenix while Stewart led the most laps and finished third.
This is the closest any two drivers have been heading into the final race of the season since the Chase format was implemented in 2004.
Tony Stewart has won two Championships while Edwards is searching for his first. Stewart has won four of the last nine races coming in while Edwards hasn’t won since Las Vegas in March.
While Stewart is emulating the wild card fever we’ve seen with recent champions in football like the Packers, and in baseball like Cardinals, Edwards has been the steadiest of all drivers with 18 top-five finishes to Stewart’s eight.
If we’re looking for who has the hot hand right now, it’s got to be Stewart. But if we look at who has the historical edge since the Homestead-Miami track has been reconfigured, it’s Edwards all day long.
No one in the history of Cup racing at Homestead-Miami has come close to what Edwards has done on the track, which is average a finish of 5.7 in seven starts. He’s won two of the last three races there and is the favorite not only to win the Championship, but the clinching race itself, which would be a rare feat.
The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book posted Edwards as the -155 favorite to win the title over Stewart (+135). The Hilton had the two drivers pick ‘em last week and with Stewart not gaining at Phoenix and Edwards history on the track, a 3-point edge in this race is huge.
Stewart has had success on this track winning the first two races ever held on it, but that was under the old flat layout. In 2003, the track made the banking much steeper with speeds similar to what we see at Las Vegas. Since then a Roush driver has won six of the last seven Homestead races, including both of Edwards‘.
While the Roush drivers have been winning all of these races, Stewart has kind of been an also-ran with no top-five finishes in his last six starts there. Of course this is a complete different scenario for Stewart. No one is hotter than him right now and we also have to consider that Stewart didn’t have race hard in the 2005 race because he was winning the championship.
Last season we saw the mental game play a part and get to Denny Hamlin and in the last few weeks we’ve seen Tony Stewart be very vocal about telling Edwards how hard he's coming.
"We're going to make him sweat it out," Stewart said. "As far as I'm concerned, it's a dead heat going in there. I'm pumped. I wish I was going to Homestead tomorrow."
It remains to be seen if Edwards can be rattled mentally, but just based on his past success on the track it seems doubtful. If anything, the pressure of the moment could be what gets him like it would any athlete in any sport going for their first big championship. But he's taking it all in stride and not giving Stewart any bulletin board material.
"This is going to be a battle. I truly believe it's going to be a good race," Edwards said. "That place is magical for us. I really enjoy going there.
"I hope it comes down to the fastest guy winning the race."
Look for Edwards to race for the win and not chance anything by simply following Stewart around. He’ll have a good enough car to do it and if he can stay out of the way of jalopies and hobo's like Brian Vickers, he should have a car to get him there. His closest competitor in the race will likely be Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick.
Like Stewart in 2005, Jimmie Johnson hasn’t had to really compete at a high level in the last five Homestead races just because he was cautiously racing for a clinching finish to seal the deal on his championships. It would be nice to see the five-time champ reverse rolls with Edwards like last year when they both did celebratory burn-outs at the end of the race, kind of like a passing of the torch.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #99 Carl Edwards (6/1)
2) #17 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
4) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
5) #14 Tony Stewart (10/1)
VegasInsider.com
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| Edwards last won in Vegas and is -155 favorite to win title at sports books |
Carl Edwards vs. Tony Stewart in Miami for all the marbles, trophies and accolades that come with winning a NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship. Edwards maintained his 3-point lead over Stewart with a runner-up finish last week at Phoenix while Stewart led the most laps and finished third.
This is the closest any two drivers have been heading into the final race of the season since the Chase format was implemented in 2004.
Tony Stewart has won two Championships while Edwards is searching for his first. Stewart has won four of the last nine races coming in while Edwards hasn’t won since Las Vegas in March.
While Stewart is emulating the wild card fever we’ve seen with recent champions in football like the Packers, and in baseball like Cardinals, Edwards has been the steadiest of all drivers with 18 top-five finishes to Stewart’s eight.
If we’re looking for who has the hot hand right now, it’s got to be Stewart. But if we look at who has the historical edge since the Homestead-Miami track has been reconfigured, it’s Edwards all day long.
No one in the history of Cup racing at Homestead-Miami has come close to what Edwards has done on the track, which is average a finish of 5.7 in seven starts. He’s won two of the last three races there and is the favorite not only to win the Championship, but the clinching race itself, which would be a rare feat.
The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book posted Edwards as the -155 favorite to win the title over Stewart (+135). The Hilton had the two drivers pick ‘em last week and with Stewart not gaining at Phoenix and Edwards history on the track, a 3-point edge in this race is huge.
 |
| Roush drivers have won six of the last seven at Homestead |
While the Roush drivers have been winning all of these races, Stewart has kind of been an also-ran with no top-five finishes in his last six starts there. Of course this is a complete different scenario for Stewart. No one is hotter than him right now and we also have to consider that Stewart didn’t have race hard in the 2005 race because he was winning the championship.
Last season we saw the mental game play a part and get to Denny Hamlin and in the last few weeks we’ve seen Tony Stewart be very vocal about telling Edwards how hard he's coming.
"We're going to make him sweat it out," Stewart said. "As far as I'm concerned, it's a dead heat going in there. I'm pumped. I wish I was going to Homestead tomorrow."
 |
| Stewart has been playing Jedi mind tricks through reporters |
"This is going to be a battle. I truly believe it's going to be a good race," Edwards said. "That place is magical for us. I really enjoy going there.
"I hope it comes down to the fastest guy winning the race."
Look for Edwards to race for the win and not chance anything by simply following Stewart around. He’ll have a good enough car to do it and if he can stay out of the way of jalopies and hobo's like Brian Vickers, he should have a car to get him there. His closest competitor in the race will likely be Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick.
Like Stewart in 2005, Jimmie Johnson hasn’t had to really compete at a high level in the last five Homestead races just because he was cautiously racing for a clinching finish to seal the deal on his championships. It would be nice to see the five-time champ reverse rolls with Edwards like last year when they both did celebratory burn-outs at the end of the race, kind of like a passing of the torch.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #99 Carl Edwards (6/1)
2) #17 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
4) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
5) #14 Tony Stewart (10/1)
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Final Phoenix Driver Ratings Following All Practice and Q Sessions
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Kobalt Tools 500
Phoenix International Raceway (PIR)
Sunday, November 13, 2011 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Phoenix*
1. Carl Edwards 6/1 34th 2nd 9th 28th
2010 winner with average finish of 13th in 14 starts; using eighth-place Loudon chassis.
2. Tony Stewart 5/1 11th 36th 8th 7th
1999 winner, his first PIR Cup start, no wins since; using winning Loudon car from September.
3. Kevin Harvick 12/1 23rd 10th 27th 4th
Swept 2006 season, has 13.8 average finish in 17 starts; using winning Charlotte chassis.
4. Jeff Gordon 7/1 38th 13th 23rd 1st
Two-time winner with an average finish of 10th in 25 starts that includes 10 top-5 finishes.
5. Jimmie Johnson 8/1 33rd 12th 16th 3rd
Four-time winner, has finished fifth or better in 10 straight PIR races; using Loudon chassis.
6. Kyle Busch 8/1 40th 5th 34th 2nd
2005 winner with an average finish of 12.9 in 13 starts; only one top-5 since his win.
7. Matt Kenseth 12/1 2nd 38th 1st 12th
2002 winner, looked to have one of the best cars in Friday’s practice; using Loudon chassis.
8. Ryan Newman 20/1 5th 30th 30th 5th
2010 winner which started a current run of three straight top-5s; great Friday practice sessions.
9. Kasey Kahne 15/1 8th 31st 10th 6th
Career best of fifth in his first PIR Cup start in 2004; best 10 consecutive lap average in practice.
10. Paul Menard 60/1 4th 1st 11th 17th
Had an excellent Friday practice making him a solid contender; using Las Vegas chassis.
* Results from the first Phoenix race of the season held on February 27, 2011.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Kobalt Tools 500
Phoenix International Raceway (PIR)
Sunday, November 13, 2011 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Phoenix*
1. Carl Edwards 6/1 34th 2nd 9th 28th
2010 winner with average finish of 13th in 14 starts; using eighth-place Loudon chassis.
2. Tony Stewart 5/1 11th 36th 8th 7th
1999 winner, his first PIR Cup start, no wins since; using winning Loudon car from September.
3. Kevin Harvick 12/1 23rd 10th 27th 4th
Swept 2006 season, has 13.8 average finish in 17 starts; using winning Charlotte chassis.
4. Jeff Gordon 7/1 38th 13th 23rd 1st
Two-time winner with an average finish of 10th in 25 starts that includes 10 top-5 finishes.
5. Jimmie Johnson 8/1 33rd 12th 16th 3rd
Four-time winner, has finished fifth or better in 10 straight PIR races; using Loudon chassis.
6. Kyle Busch 8/1 40th 5th 34th 2nd
2005 winner with an average finish of 12.9 in 13 starts; only one top-5 since his win.
7. Matt Kenseth 12/1 2nd 38th 1st 12th
2002 winner, looked to have one of the best cars in Friday’s practice; using Loudon chassis.
8. Ryan Newman 20/1 5th 30th 30th 5th
2010 winner which started a current run of three straight top-5s; great Friday practice sessions.
9. Kasey Kahne 15/1 8th 31st 10th 6th
Career best of fifth in his first PIR Cup start in 2004; best 10 consecutive lap average in practice.
10. Paul Menard 60/1 4th 1st 11th 17th
Had an excellent Friday practice making him a solid contender; using Las Vegas chassis.
* Results from the first Phoenix race of the season held on February 27, 2011.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Final AAA Texas 500 Driver Ratings Following All Practices
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
AAA Texas 500
Texas Motor Speedway
Sunday, November 6, 2011 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Lineup Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Matt Kenseth 7/1 9th 3rd 14th 7th
Two-time winner with track best 10-year average finish of 6.9; using same winning car from April.
2. Carl Edwards 7/1 2nd 7th 1st 8th
Three-time winner, best 10-consecutive average laps in final practice; using Charlotte chassis.
3. Tony Stewart 7/1 3rd 5th 8th 9th
2006 winner; last Texas top-five came five races ago; using Las Vegas-Atlanta-Kansas chassis.
4. Kevin Harvick 12/1 23rd 21st 13th 18th
12.9 average finish in 17 starts, good average speeds in practice; using brand new chassis.
5. Jimmie Johnson 7/1 21st 11th 12th 16th
2007 winner and runner-up in three races since; using winning Kansas chassis this week.
6. Jeff Gordon 8/1 28th 23rd 3rd 14th
2009 winner with no top-10s since (four starts); had a great early practice session Saturday.
7. Kasey Kahne 20/1 14th 9th 4th 1st
2006 winner with only one top-five finish since; practiced like he was in one of the Roush cars.
8. Greg Biffle 15/1 1st 1st 2nd 10th
2005 Texas winner; eighth or better in five of last six starts on track. Finished fourth in spring race.
9. Brad Keselowski 20/1 17th 8th 6th 28th
No top-10 finishes in six starts, but had fastest 10-consecutive lap average of day in practices.
10. Kurt Busch 20/1 10th 14th 11th 24th
2009 winner, struggled in practice, but is using proven chassis from Pocono (3rd) and Dover (1st).
Note: This is the second race of the season at Texas Motor Speedway. Matt Kenseth led 169 of 334 laps to win in the first race held April 9, 2011 beating Clint Bowyer by a whopping 8.315 seconds. Kenseth’s teammates, Biffle and Edwards, came in third and fourth respectively.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
AAA Texas 500
Texas Motor Speedway
Sunday, November 6, 2011 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Lineup Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Matt Kenseth 7/1 9th 3rd 14th 7th
Two-time winner with track best 10-year average finish of 6.9; using same winning car from April.
2. Carl Edwards 7/1 2nd 7th 1st 8th
Three-time winner, best 10-consecutive average laps in final practice; using Charlotte chassis.
3. Tony Stewart 7/1 3rd 5th 8th 9th
2006 winner; last Texas top-five came five races ago; using Las Vegas-Atlanta-Kansas chassis.
4. Kevin Harvick 12/1 23rd 21st 13th 18th
12.9 average finish in 17 starts, good average speeds in practice; using brand new chassis.
5. Jimmie Johnson 7/1 21st 11th 12th 16th
2007 winner and runner-up in three races since; using winning Kansas chassis this week.
6. Jeff Gordon 8/1 28th 23rd 3rd 14th
2009 winner with no top-10s since (four starts); had a great early practice session Saturday.
7. Kasey Kahne 20/1 14th 9th 4th 1st
2006 winner with only one top-five finish since; practiced like he was in one of the Roush cars.
8. Greg Biffle 15/1 1st 1st 2nd 10th
2005 Texas winner; eighth or better in five of last six starts on track. Finished fourth in spring race.
9. Brad Keselowski 20/1 17th 8th 6th 28th
No top-10 finishes in six starts, but had fastest 10-consecutive lap average of day in practices.
10. Kurt Busch 20/1 10th 14th 11th 24th
2009 winner, struggled in practice, but is using proven chassis from Pocono (3rd) and Dover (1st).
Note: This is the second race of the season at Texas Motor Speedway. Matt Kenseth led 169 of 334 laps to win in the first race held April 9, 2011 beating Clint Bowyer by a whopping 8.315 seconds. Kenseth’s teammates, Biffle and Edwards, came in third and fourth respectively.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Friday, November 4, 2011
AAA Texas 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
We’ve got three races to go in NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship with Carl Edwards holding an 8-point lead over Tony Stewart. Martinsville became almost the type of wild card Talladega was with Brad Keselowski (-27 points) and Matt Kenseth (-36) getting shuffled back due to poor finishes despite running well throughout.
The big winner in the entire deal last week was Stewart who won his third race of the Chase, his only three wins of the entire season. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book made a massive adjustment on Stewart going from 9-to-2 following Talladega to now being even money to win the title. Edwards went from a-160 favorite to -120 following Stewart’s win.
The big winner in all of this may have been Edwards, who finished ninth at Martinsville despite it not being one of his favorite tracks. Not only does he have an 8-point lead, but the final three races of the season are all tracks that he does exceptionally well at.
Beginning with this week’s race at Texas, Edwards has three wins there in 13 starts and finished third in the first race held there in April. To close the season out, all Edwards will have to do is run well at Phoenix and Homestead, two tracks that he won at to close the year out last season.
After getting his third win of the Chase and getting nearer to Edwards in points, Stewart laid down the gauntlet.
"He'd better be worried," Stewart said of Edwards, "that's all I can say. He's not going to have an easy three weeks."
Stewart finished 12th in the first Texas race, but it might be wiser to look at what he’s done more recently on the 1.5-mile tracks, preferably the high banked sister tracks of Atlanta and Charlotte. While winning on the flatter Chicago track to start the Chase, Stewart also finished eighth at Charlotte and third at Atlanta in the last two months.
Edwards was able to better Stewart on average just a little on the two sister tracks getting a third and fifth-place finish respectively.
Edwards also has his Las Vegas win from early in the season to go off which runs similar to Texas. Ironically, Edwards got that win due to some back luck in the pits on Stewart’s final stop. Stewart had that race thoroughly dominated and is using the same car this week.
“Texas is one of our strong points," said Edwards. "I feel really good about going there, especially the way our Roush Fenway Fords run there.Texas is different than any track we go to just because of the atmosphere. It’s one of the biggest races of the year. The fans, sponsors and drivers all know it, there is a lot on the line and there is a lot of pride in winning a race there.”
The winner of the first Texas race this season, who also won at Charlotte three weeks ago, was Matt Kenseth. Despite his chances of winning a second championship appearing to be gone, Kenseth should run as one of the favorites this week based on his recent and past history at Texas, not to mention he's using the same winning chassis from Charlotte.
No one has more consistent at Texas than Kenseth. Along with his two wins, he also has four runner-up finishes keeping in line with a long standing tradition of Jack Roush cars running well in the Lone Star state. A Roush driver won the first two races ever held there and since then has visited the winner’s circle with three other drivers.
Denny Hamlin swept both Texas races last season, but he hasn’t been a real contender in any 1.5-mile tracks this season. Jimmie Johnson got his only Texas win in 2007 and has had three runner-up finishes since, but hasn’t finished better than eighth in his last two starts. he's be using his winning Kansas chassi this week. Look for Jeff Gordon to well on the basis of his Atlanta win.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #17 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
2) #99 Carl Edwards (6/1)
3) #14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
5) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
VegasInsider.com
 |
| Only three races to go until we see someone new hoisting the trophy (Getty) |
The big winner in the entire deal last week was Stewart who won his third race of the Chase, his only three wins of the entire season. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book made a massive adjustment on Stewart going from 9-to-2 following Talladega to now being even money to win the title. Edwards went from a-160 favorite to -120 following Stewart’s win.
The big winner in all of this may have been Edwards, who finished ninth at Martinsville despite it not being one of his favorite tracks. Not only does he have an 8-point lead, but the final three races of the season are all tracks that he does exceptionally well at.
Beginning with this week’s race at Texas, Edwards has three wins there in 13 starts and finished third in the first race held there in April. To close the season out, all Edwards will have to do is run well at Phoenix and Homestead, two tracks that he won at to close the year out last season.
After getting his third win of the Chase and getting nearer to Edwards in points, Stewart laid down the gauntlet.
"He'd better be worried," Stewart said of Edwards, "that's all I can say. He's not going to have an easy three weeks."
 |
| Stewart's charging hard and has a great car this week (Getty) |
Edwards was able to better Stewart on average just a little on the two sister tracks getting a third and fifth-place finish respectively.
Edwards also has his Las Vegas win from early in the season to go off which runs similar to Texas. Ironically, Edwards got that win due to some back luck in the pits on Stewart’s final stop. Stewart had that race thoroughly dominated and is using the same car this week.
“Texas is one of our strong points," said Edwards. "I feel really good about going there, especially the way our Roush Fenway Fords run there.Texas is different than any track we go to just because of the atmosphere. It’s one of the biggest races of the year. The fans, sponsors and drivers all know it, there is a lot on the line and there is a lot of pride in winning a race there.”
The winner of the first Texas race this season, who also won at Charlotte three weeks ago, was Matt Kenseth. Despite his chances of winning a second championship appearing to be gone, Kenseth should run as one of the favorites this week based on his recent and past history at Texas, not to mention he's using the same winning chassis from Charlotte.
No one has more consistent at Texas than Kenseth. Along with his two wins, he also has four runner-up finishes keeping in line with a long standing tradition of Jack Roush cars running well in the Lone Star state. A Roush driver won the first two races ever held there and since then has visited the winner’s circle with three other drivers.
Denny Hamlin swept both Texas races last season, but he hasn’t been a real contender in any 1.5-mile tracks this season. Jimmie Johnson got his only Texas win in 2007 and has had three runner-up finishes since, but hasn’t finished better than eighth in his last two starts. he's be using his winning Kansas chassi this week. Look for Jeff Gordon to well on the basis of his Atlanta win.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #17 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
2) #99 Carl Edwards (6/1)
3) #14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
5) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Final Driver Ratings for Martinsville Tums Relief 500
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Tums Fast Relief 500
Martinsville Speedway
Sunday, October 30, 2011 - 11:16 am (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Lineup* Practice 1 2010** 2011**
1. Jimmie Johnson 5/1 7th 3rd 5th 11th
Six-time winner, the last coming in 2009; using same chassis from spring race.
2. Jeff Gordon 6/1 10th 9th 20th 5th
Seven-time winner, the last coming in 2005; has 30 top-10 finishes in 37 starts.
3. Kevin Harvick 6/1 5th 25th 3rd 1st
Using same car this week that won in spring race; the car also won at Richmond.
4. Clint Bowyer 18/1 13th 2nd 38th 9th
Excellent practice Saturday; using New Hampshire chassis that ran out of fuel leading late.
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 18/1 9th 10th 7th 2nd
Nine top-five finishes in 23 starts; using same chassis that finished runner-up in spring.
6. Kyle Busch 7/1 6th 15th 4th 3rd
Six top-five finishes in 13 starts; using winning Michigan chassis from August.
7. Denny Hamlin 6/1 11th 14th 1st 12th
Five-time winner on his home state track; finished sixth or better in last 9 of 10 races.
8. Kurt Busch 30/1 8th 11th 16th 16th
2002 winner with only one top-five since; using Keselowski chassis from Atlanta race.
9. Juan Montoya 40/1 20th 8th 19th 4th
Finished fourth or better in two of last four starts; using New Hampshire chassis.
10. Tony Stewart 7/1 4th 32nd 24th 34th
Two-time winner, the last coming in 2006; using chassis from both New Hampshire races.
* The starting lineup was set by points.
** Results from the last two Sprint Cup races run at Martinsville Speedway, October 24, 2010 and April 3, 2011.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Tums Fast Relief 500
Martinsville Speedway
Sunday, October 30, 2011 - 11:16 am (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Lineup* Practice 1 2010** 2011**
1. Jimmie Johnson 5/1 7th 3rd 5th 11th
Six-time winner, the last coming in 2009; using same chassis from spring race.
2. Jeff Gordon 6/1 10th 9th 20th 5th
Seven-time winner, the last coming in 2005; has 30 top-10 finishes in 37 starts.
3. Kevin Harvick 6/1 5th 25th 3rd 1st
Using same car this week that won in spring race; the car also won at Richmond.
4. Clint Bowyer 18/1 13th 2nd 38th 9th
Excellent practice Saturday; using New Hampshire chassis that ran out of fuel leading late.
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 18/1 9th 10th 7th 2nd
Nine top-five finishes in 23 starts; using same chassis that finished runner-up in spring.
6. Kyle Busch 7/1 6th 15th 4th 3rd
Six top-five finishes in 13 starts; using winning Michigan chassis from August.
7. Denny Hamlin 6/1 11th 14th 1st 12th
Five-time winner on his home state track; finished sixth or better in last 9 of 10 races.
8. Kurt Busch 30/1 8th 11th 16th 16th
2002 winner with only one top-five since; using Keselowski chassis from Atlanta race.
9. Juan Montoya 40/1 20th 8th 19th 4th
Finished fourth or better in two of last four starts; using New Hampshire chassis.
10. Tony Stewart 7/1 4th 32nd 24th 34th
Two-time winner, the last coming in 2006; using chassis from both New Hampshire races.
* The starting lineup was set by points.
** Results from the last two Sprint Cup races run at Martinsville Speedway, October 24, 2010 and April 3, 2011.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Martinsville Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Last week's race at Talladega was every bit the wild card anticipated of the Chase and more. Only four races remain and the picture has become much clearer with some of the top names like Jimmie Johnson (-50 pts), Kevin Harvick (-26) and Kyle Busch (-40) tumbling backwards with poor finishes.
Johnson, who is attempting to expand upon his never done before five championships, was the biggest mystery of last Sunday. His tandem partner for the race was Dale Earnhardt Jr and between them, they had the fastest two cars. Add in their plate racing excellence and you should have the make-up a duo that should have finished in the top five.
But for some reason they got cute and outsmarted themselves. They thought by waiting in the back of the pack for the entire race they could avoid trouble and then make their move with five to six laps to go. What they didn’t figure out in their whole master plan is that a few cautions in the final laps would hurt their chances of getting up to speed quicker and being better than everyone.
At the end of the day Johnson finished 26th and fell 50-points behind leader Carl Edwards, who used a similar cautious tactic, but made his move earlier. The end results was an 11th-place finish for Edwards, a result he considers like a win. Matt Kenseth finished 18th, but still put a separation between he and his closest competitors, other than his teammate Edwards.
The two of them have a nice head start going into Martinsville this week and they’re going to need it because it hasn’t been their best track. Kenseth is currently 14 points behind while Brad Keselowski is 18 behind with Tony Stewart 19 back.
Jeff Gordon had his season, one that needed a top-3 finish to get back into the Chase race, smacked away by a kid a helped win the Daytona 500 for. Trevor Bayne was taught how to run the draft by Gordon in the Gatorade Duels. Gordon took the rookie under his wing and the kid goes on to win the 500 the following week using all the insights gained from Gordon.
On the Final restart, Gordon had been shuffled away from his partner, Mark Martin, and Bayne had lost his too. Bayne and Gordon formed an immediate alliance through the radio and with the way Gordon was racing on the final laps, he looked to have the car to beat with Bayne‘s help. He was as intense and daring as I’ve seen in a while and he was moving up. There’s no doubt in my mind that he would have caught and passed the leaders.
But then Bayne got team orders on the radio that he was to run with Kenseth, who had lost his partner, and not Gordon who he agreed to run with. Roush Racing helps build the Wood Brothers car that Bayne drives, cars that are both Ford’s while Gordon drives a Chevy.
With no one pushing him, Gordon fell back all the way to 27th and essentially slammed the door on his season. Bayne was distraught afterwards and tweeted several apologies, but the damage was done. The teacher got taken by the student which will probably make Gordon rethink who he shares his wealth of wisdom with in the future.
It may sound as though the Chase is down to just a few drivers, but because Edwards and Kenseth have run so poorly at Martinsville over the years, this almost becomes as big a wild card race for them as Talladega was for everyone else.
Kenseth only has two top-5 finishes in 23 starts at Martinsville, but has maintained a steady 15.2 average finish position, something he'd like to better in this race, but knows he has to stay patient.
“Probably the most challenging part for me at Martinsville is being calm, thinking through things, and not doing something because you are mad," said Kenseth who finished sixth in the April race. "I don’t like getting run into and I don’t like running into other people and it’s bound to happen there since it’s such a small track. There is no room to move and there is not an outside groove where you have another choice to pass. It is one of the tracks that takes all the patience that I have usually. The first thing is getting the car to go fast all the time, be smooth and drive it like I am supposed to there. After that, it’s being patient and using your head to get the best finish you can.”
Edwards is now the 5-to-8 (-160) favorites to win the Championship at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book now that Johnson has slid to depths that not even a Superman like him can get out of. But if you do believe in miracles, odds on Johnson winning the title are at a never before seen price of 40-to-1 with four races to go.
Martinsville is not Edwards' best track by any means. He finished 18th in the April race and has a 16.9 average finish in 14 starts with his only top-5 being third-place in 2008. He's bringing a new chassis with him to the track, but still isn't very confident coming in.
“I am a little nervous about Martinsville," admitted Edwards. "I think if we can pick up just a tiny bit of speed there we will be good. Otherwise, that will be one of the tracks we go to and just fight and claw for a top 10 and that is how it usually is for me there. I would like to be surprised and would love to run better but I am a little nervous about that one to be honest.”
Kevin Harvick won this race in the spring and could shave off all kinds of points before heading into the final three races. He has a major edge coming into this race and there could be some value with his Championship odds at 8-to-1. Although Harvick grew up racing on these type of small flat tracks, his win in April was his first in 20 races and only his second top-5.
However, unlike Kenseth and Edwards, he is very comfortable on the track and does have other wins there in the Truck and Nationwide series.
“I think because it’s a short track and when you go back to the roots of where we all grew up racing it was on the short tracks," said Harvick earlier this week. "Over the first several years we didn’t get a lot of the finishes that we probably deserved, whether it was from a mistake on the race track or just dumb luck. The last couple of years we’ve gotten good finishes and our cars have run fast. To finally get that check mark in the win box was important for us.”
Harvick also has an edge this week because of the car he's bringing. Not only is did the chassis slated to run this week win the April Martinsville race, but it also won at Richmond.
Brad Keselowski sits strong in third-place and is 6-to-1 to win the title and knows this is a place where he can make some ground up because of Edwards and Kenseth's past history at Martinsville.
“That was exactly how we needed to leave Talladega, with a strong finish," said Keselowski who debuts a new chassis this week. "We gained points on the leader and gained points on really all the Chase cars. I’m very proud of the effort that everyone on this Miller Lite Dodge team has put forth thus far. We’re still in contention and we have a damn good shot at winning this championship. This weekend’s race at Martinsville is one that I’ve been looking forward to for a while. There is no part or piece of equipment that can substitute for just getting a bunch of laps under your belt there. I’ve learned a lot in my three races, and I know Paul (Wolfe) has as well. This is a race where I think we can really pick up some points on Carl (Edwards) and Matt (Kenseth).”
While the leaders all play the points game, it's more than likely that we see the Martinsville cream rise to the top, no matter where they're at in points. Johnson, Gordon and Denny Hamlin have combined to win 14 of the last 17 Martinsville races. Prior to April's race, Hamlin had won three straight and has four wins overall running in his home state.
“I have raced at Martinsville more than I have raced at any other track when you consider total laps," Hamlin said when asked about why he's so strong at Martinsville. "Growing up in Virginia I had the chance to race here in some other series and all that track time definitely gave me a comfort level at Martinsville. That carried over to trucks and Nationwide Series and now to the Cup Series. I feel really confident at this track and I know we bring great cars – those things together usually lead to success. It’s also a lot of pressure because this is a race we circle as one where we expect to be really competitive.”
Jeff Gordon has sevens wins on the track and Johnson has six throughout their great careers and it looks like they'll be battling it out again this week.
As for the Championship, that may be the most exciting part of the race; watching how the two Roush drivers do against Harvick and Keselowski and the urgency they place on each position -- no matter where they're at --during the late stages.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
3) #29 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
VegasInsider.com
Johnson, who is attempting to expand upon his never done before five championships, was the biggest mystery of last Sunday. His tandem partner for the race was Dale Earnhardt Jr and between them, they had the fastest two cars. Add in their plate racing excellence and you should have the make-up a duo that should have finished in the top five.
But for some reason they got cute and outsmarted themselves. They thought by waiting in the back of the pack for the entire race they could avoid trouble and then make their move with five to six laps to go. What they didn’t figure out in their whole master plan is that a few cautions in the final laps would hurt their chances of getting up to speed quicker and being better than everyone.
At the end of the day Johnson finished 26th and fell 50-points behind leader Carl Edwards, who used a similar cautious tactic, but made his move earlier. The end results was an 11th-place finish for Edwards, a result he considers like a win. Matt Kenseth finished 18th, but still put a separation between he and his closest competitors, other than his teammate Edwards.
The two of them have a nice head start going into Martinsville this week and they’re going to need it because it hasn’t been their best track. Kenseth is currently 14 points behind while Brad Keselowski is 18 behind with Tony Stewart 19 back.
Jeff Gordon had his season, one that needed a top-3 finish to get back into the Chase race, smacked away by a kid a helped win the Daytona 500 for. Trevor Bayne was taught how to run the draft by Gordon in the Gatorade Duels. Gordon took the rookie under his wing and the kid goes on to win the 500 the following week using all the insights gained from Gordon.
On the Final restart, Gordon had been shuffled away from his partner, Mark Martin, and Bayne had lost his too. Bayne and Gordon formed an immediate alliance through the radio and with the way Gordon was racing on the final laps, he looked to have the car to beat with Bayne‘s help. He was as intense and daring as I’ve seen in a while and he was moving up. There’s no doubt in my mind that he would have caught and passed the leaders.
But then Bayne got team orders on the radio that he was to run with Kenseth, who had lost his partner, and not Gordon who he agreed to run with. Roush Racing helps build the Wood Brothers car that Bayne drives, cars that are both Ford’s while Gordon drives a Chevy.
With no one pushing him, Gordon fell back all the way to 27th and essentially slammed the door on his season. Bayne was distraught afterwards and tweeted several apologies, but the damage was done. The teacher got taken by the student which will probably make Gordon rethink who he shares his wealth of wisdom with in the future.
Kenseth only has two top-5 finishes in 23 starts at Martinsville, but has maintained a steady 15.2 average finish position, something he'd like to better in this race, but knows he has to stay patient.
“Probably the most challenging part for me at Martinsville is being calm, thinking through things, and not doing something because you are mad," said Kenseth who finished sixth in the April race. "I don’t like getting run into and I don’t like running into other people and it’s bound to happen there since it’s such a small track. There is no room to move and there is not an outside groove where you have another choice to pass. It is one of the tracks that takes all the patience that I have usually. The first thing is getting the car to go fast all the time, be smooth and drive it like I am supposed to there. After that, it’s being patient and using your head to get the best finish you can.”
Edwards is now the 5-to-8 (-160) favorites to win the Championship at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book now that Johnson has slid to depths that not even a Superman like him can get out of. But if you do believe in miracles, odds on Johnson winning the title are at a never before seen price of 40-to-1 with four races to go.
Martinsville is not Edwards' best track by any means. He finished 18th in the April race and has a 16.9 average finish in 14 starts with his only top-5 being third-place in 2008. He's bringing a new chassis with him to the track, but still isn't very confident coming in.
“I am a little nervous about Martinsville," admitted Edwards. "I think if we can pick up just a tiny bit of speed there we will be good. Otherwise, that will be one of the tracks we go to and just fight and claw for a top 10 and that is how it usually is for me there. I would like to be surprised and would love to run better but I am a little nervous about that one to be honest.”
However, unlike Kenseth and Edwards, he is very comfortable on the track and does have other wins there in the Truck and Nationwide series.
“I think because it’s a short track and when you go back to the roots of where we all grew up racing it was on the short tracks," said Harvick earlier this week. "Over the first several years we didn’t get a lot of the finishes that we probably deserved, whether it was from a mistake on the race track or just dumb luck. The last couple of years we’ve gotten good finishes and our cars have run fast. To finally get that check mark in the win box was important for us.”
Harvick also has an edge this week because of the car he's bringing. Not only is did the chassis slated to run this week win the April Martinsville race, but it also won at Richmond.
Brad Keselowski sits strong in third-place and is 6-to-1 to win the title and knows this is a place where he can make some ground up because of Edwards and Kenseth's past history at Martinsville.
“That was exactly how we needed to leave Talladega, with a strong finish," said Keselowski who debuts a new chassis this week. "We gained points on the leader and gained points on really all the Chase cars. I’m very proud of the effort that everyone on this Miller Lite Dodge team has put forth thus far. We’re still in contention and we have a damn good shot at winning this championship. This weekend’s race at Martinsville is one that I’ve been looking forward to for a while. There is no part or piece of equipment that can substitute for just getting a bunch of laps under your belt there. I’ve learned a lot in my three races, and I know Paul (Wolfe) has as well. This is a race where I think we can really pick up some points on Carl (Edwards) and Matt (Kenseth).”
While the leaders all play the points game, it's more than likely that we see the Martinsville cream rise to the top, no matter where they're at in points. Johnson, Gordon and Denny Hamlin have combined to win 14 of the last 17 Martinsville races. Prior to April's race, Hamlin had won three straight and has four wins overall running in his home state.
“I have raced at Martinsville more than I have raced at any other track when you consider total laps," Hamlin said when asked about why he's so strong at Martinsville. "Growing up in Virginia I had the chance to race here in some other series and all that track time definitely gave me a comfort level at Martinsville. That carried over to trucks and Nationwide Series and now to the Cup Series. I feel really confident at this track and I know we bring great cars – those things together usually lead to success. It’s also a lot of pressure because this is a race we circle as one where we expect to be really competitive.”
Jeff Gordon has sevens wins on the track and Johnson has six throughout their great careers and it looks like they'll be battling it out again this week.
As for the Championship, that may be the most exciting part of the race; watching how the two Roush drivers do against Harvick and Keselowski and the urgency they place on each position -- no matter where they're at --during the late stages.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
3) #29 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Final Talladega Driver Ratings Following All Practice & Qualifying Sessions
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Good Sam Club 500
Talladega Superspeedway
Sunday, October 23, 2011 - 11:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Talladega 1*
1. Kevin Harvick 10/1 17th DNP 13th 5th
2010 winner with two additional plate race wins at Daytona; tandem racing w/Paul Menard
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1 21st 6th 6th 4th
Five-time winner, the last time in 2004, runner-up in 2009; tandem racing w/Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon 12/1 4th 10th 5th 3rd
Six-time winner, the last in 2007, inches away from winning in April; tandem racing w/Mark Martin
4. Jimmie Johnson 12/1 22nd 5th 2nd 1st
Two-time winner, has never been so desperate for points in fall race; using winning car from April.
5. Clint Bowyer 20/1 13th DNP 3rd 2nd
2010 fall winner will be using teammate Paul Menard’s chassis; tandem racing w/Jeff Burton
6. Kurt Busch 12/1 12th 15th 14th 18th
No wins in any point plate races. Using winning Bud Shootout car; tandem racing w/Regan Smith.
7. Kyle Busch 12/1 26th 4th 34th 35th
2008 winner, his only top-five finish. Debuts new chassis; tandem racing w/Joey Logano.
8. Mark Martin 30/1 3rd 9th 1st 8th
Two-time winner, the last coming in 1997. Solid candidate because of owner and tandem partner.
9. David Ragan 20/1 15th 12th 8th 39th
Using winning Daytona chassis from July, also will have same driver (Kenseth) pushing him again.
10. Matt Kenseth 20/1 16th 11th 11th 36th
No top-10s since 2006, but is using same chassis that pushed Ragan to win at Daytona
* Results from the season’s first race held at Talladega on April 17, 2011. This is the fourth and final restrictor-plate race of the season.
Note: The fastest way around restrictor-plate races this season has been with drivers teaming up together forming a two-car draft train. Most drivers already know who they’ll be tandem racing with on Sunday.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Good Sam Club 500
Talladega Superspeedway
Sunday, October 23, 2011 - 11:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Talladega 1*
1. Kevin Harvick 10/1 17th DNP 13th 5th
2010 winner with two additional plate race wins at Daytona; tandem racing w/Paul Menard
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1 21st 6th 6th 4th
Five-time winner, the last time in 2004, runner-up in 2009; tandem racing w/Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon 12/1 4th 10th 5th 3rd
Six-time winner, the last in 2007, inches away from winning in April; tandem racing w/Mark Martin
4. Jimmie Johnson 12/1 22nd 5th 2nd 1st
Two-time winner, has never been so desperate for points in fall race; using winning car from April.
5. Clint Bowyer 20/1 13th DNP 3rd 2nd
2010 fall winner will be using teammate Paul Menard’s chassis; tandem racing w/Jeff Burton
6. Kurt Busch 12/1 12th 15th 14th 18th
No wins in any point plate races. Using winning Bud Shootout car; tandem racing w/Regan Smith.
7. Kyle Busch 12/1 26th 4th 34th 35th
2008 winner, his only top-five finish. Debuts new chassis; tandem racing w/Joey Logano.
8. Mark Martin 30/1 3rd 9th 1st 8th
Two-time winner, the last coming in 1997. Solid candidate because of owner and tandem partner.
9. David Ragan 20/1 15th 12th 8th 39th
Using winning Daytona chassis from July, also will have same driver (Kenseth) pushing him again.
10. Matt Kenseth 20/1 16th 11th 11th 36th
No top-10s since 2006, but is using same chassis that pushed Ragan to win at Daytona
* Results from the season’s first race held at Talladega on April 17, 2011. This is the fourth and final restrictor-plate race of the season.
Note: The fastest way around restrictor-plate races this season has been with drivers teaming up together forming a two-car draft train. Most drivers already know who they’ll be tandem racing with on Sunday.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Talladega Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
As if last weeks race at Charlotte didn’t shuffle things up enough in NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship, we get the ultimate wild card race at Talladega this week. Every driver has a chance to win and each has also the same chance at finishing 30th or worse. Only five races are left and after Sunday’s race, things should be a lot clearer.
One of the greatest things I like about this years restrictor-plate racing, beyond cars going close to 200 mph, is the tandem racing. I like seeing teammates working together, or drivers who don’t really like each other learning to trust one another as they create an impromptu alliance because they have to in the moment. It’s a nice change of pace and adds some spice to the 36 race season.
What we have seen for the most part is teammates finding each other regardless if it means losing a few positions while waiting for their partner to catch up. The Hendrick drivers all figure to pair-up, as will Roush and RCR. Where it gets fun is when a driver’s partner has fallen out of the race and now they have to see who finds them attractive and is willing to give up on their current alliance.
It’s all about who is fastest paired up. Some drivers are better as pushers than pullers in the draft and after three races in this type of format, most teams have their plan B and C options knowing who will be the best option for them when plan A goes crashing, and it usually does.
The restrictor-plates for this weeks race will be a little larger than what we have seen in the first three plate races which will makes the speeds be a little bit higher, but most drivers still expect tandem racing to be the fastest way around the track.
The big story last week was Jimmie Johnson crashing late in the Charlotte race giving him a 34th-place finish and dropping him five positions to eighth in points, 35 points behind Carl Edwards. We can never count him out, but he’s in a position unlike any we’ve seen him in over the last five years of winning championships. He comes to Talladega this week hoping to match his victory from the first race there in April and is using the same car from that race this week.
For Edwards, he can probably taste the victory champagne already as he continues to have excellent finishes week after week. He has Las Vegas as his only victory on the season, but his consistency is what has gotten him to the top. He currently leads all drivers in top-five (16) and Top-10 finishes (22).
Roush drivers have proven to be better in the restrictor-plate races over the last two seasons, but Edwards looks to have a slim chance at finishing well. In 14 career races at Talladega he has only one to-five finish there, fifth-place in 2005. If he can duplicate his sixth-place finish from April, he will consider it a victory and be in prime position to capture the championship with four races to go.
The driver currently five points back in second-place that no one seems to be talking about is Kevin Harvick. He’s tied with Kyle Busch for the most wins on the season with four, but hasn’t garnered the attention deserved for such an outstanding season. This week at Talladega, he’ll be one of the favorites because he’s shown to be one of the more consistent drivers over his last three races there. He won and finished runner-up in 2010 and then finished fifth in this years race.
“Restrictor plate stuff has been great for us, you never know how it is going to go at Talladega, but we have been pretty good there in the past," Harvick said earlier this week. "I don’t anticipate the restrictor plate change doing anything. I think the speeds will be a little bit higher. I think the pop-off valve will probably be a bigger change than the restrictor plate for sure. I don’t think it’s going to change the two-car tandem other than you’re going to have to switch spots a lot more to keep the engine cool. For whatever reason, we’ve just always had a good plate program at RCR and when you have good cars, it makes it a lot easier to have success. We’ll stick with our teammates and see where we fall at the end.
Jeff Gordon is a six-time Talladega winner and finished third in the April race as three cars came to the finish line simulataneously. He knows he's got good stuff, but he's still not quite sure what his strategy will be for Sunday.
“My strategy is to race whatever way gives us the best chance to win," said Gordon. "I think the bonus ($100k to the driver who leads the most laps, provided there are 100 or more lead changes during the race) is a cool thing that the track is doing, and 100 might be reachable. Our plan is to be there at the end battling for the win. That could mean battling lap-after-lap for the lead, or it could mean staying a safe distance back and watching the race unfold. It could also be a mixture of the two. We’ll just have to wait and see once the green flag is waved."
The driver sneaking up on everyone is 2003 NASCAR Champion Matt Kenseth who won last week’s race, his third of the season. He’s only seven points behind and has put together four straight races coming in that has seen him finish sixth or better. He’s in the same boat as his teammate, Edwards, in that he hasn’t had a lot of success at Talladega, but if he could muster a top-10 finish it would go along way for the stretch run. His last top-10 at Talladega came in 2006. This week he'll be using the same chassis that finished runner-up at Daytona in July, the car that pushed David Ragan to victory.
“It’s kind of different doing a team-style race because you can’t do it by yourself at these superspeedway tracks anymore, you need a partner in order to have a good race," said Kenseth. "If you win or finish second, you know the other guy was just as responsible for your finish as you were in a way, so it’s definitely different. We had a great finish last weekend so we’ll take the momentum and just try to keep getting the best finishes we can in these final five weekends of the season for our No. 17 team.”
Just a side note on Kenseth's teammate David Ragan: He'll be using that same winning car that Kenseth pushed to victory at Daytona this week at Talladega. Of all the types of tracks on the circuit, Ragan has always looked his most comfortable in plate races.
Dale Earnhardt Jr, becomes a player this week because of the plates, even though he says he hates them, especially with having the tendem racing. But nevertheless, he's a five-time winner at Talladega and can run with the best of them. Despite not winning at Talladega since 2004, he has shown some consistency. This type of racing is in his blood. He finished fourth in the April race and was runner-up in 2009. This could be the ideal situation for him to end several winless streaks all at once.
As is the case for any restrictor-plate race, be careful of laying too much in any driver match-up no matter who the driver is. By the same token, you can almost take any driver at plus-money because anything can, and usually does happen. A long shot probably has a better chance of hitting at any one of the plate race tracks than any other type. There aren't many odds-to-win bets that anyone could say, "that driver has no shot this week."
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (10/1)
2) #29 Kevin Harvick (8/1)
3) #33 Clint Bowyer (10/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (10/1)
5) #2 Kurt Busch (12/1)
VegasInsider.com
One of the greatest things I like about this years restrictor-plate racing, beyond cars going close to 200 mph, is the tandem racing. I like seeing teammates working together, or drivers who don’t really like each other learning to trust one another as they create an impromptu alliance because they have to in the moment. It’s a nice change of pace and adds some spice to the 36 race season.
What we have seen for the most part is teammates finding each other regardless if it means losing a few positions while waiting for their partner to catch up. The Hendrick drivers all figure to pair-up, as will Roush and RCR. Where it gets fun is when a driver’s partner has fallen out of the race and now they have to see who finds them attractive and is willing to give up on their current alliance.
It’s all about who is fastest paired up. Some drivers are better as pushers than pullers in the draft and after three races in this type of format, most teams have their plan B and C options knowing who will be the best option for them when plan A goes crashing, and it usually does.
The restrictor-plates for this weeks race will be a little larger than what we have seen in the first three plate races which will makes the speeds be a little bit higher, but most drivers still expect tandem racing to be the fastest way around the track.
For Edwards, he can probably taste the victory champagne already as he continues to have excellent finishes week after week. He has Las Vegas as his only victory on the season, but his consistency is what has gotten him to the top. He currently leads all drivers in top-five (16) and Top-10 finishes (22).
Roush drivers have proven to be better in the restrictor-plate races over the last two seasons, but Edwards looks to have a slim chance at finishing well. In 14 career races at Talladega he has only one to-five finish there, fifth-place in 2005. If he can duplicate his sixth-place finish from April, he will consider it a victory and be in prime position to capture the championship with four races to go.
The driver currently five points back in second-place that no one seems to be talking about is Kevin Harvick. He’s tied with Kyle Busch for the most wins on the season with four, but hasn’t garnered the attention deserved for such an outstanding season. This week at Talladega, he’ll be one of the favorites because he’s shown to be one of the more consistent drivers over his last three races there. He won and finished runner-up in 2010 and then finished fifth in this years race.
“Restrictor plate stuff has been great for us, you never know how it is going to go at Talladega, but we have been pretty good there in the past," Harvick said earlier this week. "I don’t anticipate the restrictor plate change doing anything. I think the speeds will be a little bit higher. I think the pop-off valve will probably be a bigger change than the restrictor plate for sure. I don’t think it’s going to change the two-car tandem other than you’re going to have to switch spots a lot more to keep the engine cool. For whatever reason, we’ve just always had a good plate program at RCR and when you have good cars, it makes it a lot easier to have success. We’ll stick with our teammates and see where we fall at the end.
Jeff Gordon is a six-time Talladega winner and finished third in the April race as three cars came to the finish line simulataneously. He knows he's got good stuff, but he's still not quite sure what his strategy will be for Sunday.
“My strategy is to race whatever way gives us the best chance to win," said Gordon. "I think the bonus ($100k to the driver who leads the most laps, provided there are 100 or more lead changes during the race) is a cool thing that the track is doing, and 100 might be reachable. Our plan is to be there at the end battling for the win. That could mean battling lap-after-lap for the lead, or it could mean staying a safe distance back and watching the race unfold. It could also be a mixture of the two. We’ll just have to wait and see once the green flag is waved."
“It’s kind of different doing a team-style race because you can’t do it by yourself at these superspeedway tracks anymore, you need a partner in order to have a good race," said Kenseth. "If you win or finish second, you know the other guy was just as responsible for your finish as you were in a way, so it’s definitely different. We had a great finish last weekend so we’ll take the momentum and just try to keep getting the best finishes we can in these final five weekends of the season for our No. 17 team.”
Just a side note on Kenseth's teammate David Ragan: He'll be using that same winning car that Kenseth pushed to victory at Daytona this week at Talladega. Of all the types of tracks on the circuit, Ragan has always looked his most comfortable in plate races.
Dale Earnhardt Jr, becomes a player this week because of the plates, even though he says he hates them, especially with having the tendem racing. But nevertheless, he's a five-time winner at Talladega and can run with the best of them. Despite not winning at Talladega since 2004, he has shown some consistency. This type of racing is in his blood. He finished fourth in the April race and was runner-up in 2009. This could be the ideal situation for him to end several winless streaks all at once.
As is the case for any restrictor-plate race, be careful of laying too much in any driver match-up no matter who the driver is. By the same token, you can almost take any driver at plus-money because anything can, and usually does happen. A long shot probably has a better chance of hitting at any one of the plate race tracks than any other type. There aren't many odds-to-win bets that anyone could say, "that driver has no shot this week."
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (10/1)
2) #29 Kevin Harvick (8/1)
3) #33 Clint Bowyer (10/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (10/1)
5) #2 Kurt Busch (12/1)
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