Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Auto Club 400
Auto Club (California) Speedway
Sunday, March 25, 2012 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Matt Kenseth 8/1 11th 15th 2nd 7th
Three-time winner, the last coming in ’09 following a Daytona 500 win; using Texas fall chassis.
2. Tony Stewart 7/1 14th 9th 4th 10th
2010 winner with a 14.1 average finish; using new chassis, a clone to winning Las Vegas car.
3. Denny Hamlin 20/1 5th 1st 1st 1st
By far the best car in all practice sessions, but downgraded due to 19.1 average finish in 11 starts.
4. Kevin Harvick 10/1 15th 7th 5th 7th
2011 winner and runner-up in 2010; the Bakersfield, CA native is using a new chassis this week.
5. Jimmie Johnson 6/1 9th 10th 9th 6th
Five-time winner with track record 5.1 average finish; third or better in eight of last nine starts.
6. Kyle Busch 7/1 12th 2nd 6th 5th
2005 winner, his first career Cup win, with nine top-10 finishes in 14 starts; strong practices.
7. Greg Biffle 12/1 8th 4th 14th 20th
2005 winner; using new chassis he claims “the best car to ever come out of Roush-Fenway shop.”
8. Jeff Gordon 8/1 23rd 21st 17th 2nd
Three-time winner, the last coming in 2004. Practiced very well in the sun, but slow under clouds.
9. Clint Bowyer 30/1 1st 11th 11th 3rd
2010 fall runner-up with a 10.6 average in 11 starts. MWR driver will soon break through with win.
10. Ryan Newman 30/1 7th 6th 3rd 18th
Two consecutive fifth-place finishes; strong practice 2 long runs. Using ‘11 Michigan chassis.
Note: Although different in size, results the March 11 Las Vegas race can be used as a barometer to help determine what drivers may have an edge this week at California.
Odds courtesy of the LVH Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Betting Notes: Boy, this is a tough one. Denny Hamlin is just giving us all kinds of reasons to bet him to win and play him in every match-up. During practice he was fast in the shade, fast in the sun, fast in qualifying trim and fast in race trim. The guy should run away with the race, but the only problem is that we’ve never seen it before.
He won at Fontana’s sister-track of Michigan last year, but at California he has a less than flattering 19.2 average finish with only one top-5. The biggest variable from now to all his past races is his new crew chief, Darian Grubb. Grubb was able to set-up a car for Tony Stewart to get his first career win on the track in 2010, 11 years after Stewart began his career. Grubb was also behind most of Jimmie Johnson’s California success as part of the Lowe’s team.
The Grubb angle is a huge one, especially since they’ve already won this season. The only problem I have personally is being gun shy about the sexiest in practice. The last three weeks Kasey Kahne has looked the best only to see his day cut short by an assortment of issues, mostly operator error.
What’s funny is that I am not betting Kahne at all this week and he has a car good enough to compete for a win or top-5, but I’m tired of beating a dead horse. He will win soon, though.
I’m sticking with the meat-and-potatoes this week and will hope for Kenseth, Stewart, Harvick or Biffle to get the win. If some juicy odds come about on Bowyer or Newman, I may be tempted as well.
Match-up of the week: Michael Watrip Racing drivers vs. anyone, almost anyone
The MWR drivers are on a major upward trend. Clint Boywer, Martin Truex Jr and Mark Martin all have stout cars capable of finishing within the top-10, yet they’ll be paired up with lesser drivers.
Showing posts with label las vegas betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label las vegas betting. Show all posts
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
2012 California Auto Club 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
It will be interesting to see what kind crowd shows up for this weekends NASCAR race at Auto Club (California) Speedway after witnessing the rapid attendance decline at Bristol Sunday. Once the hardest ticket to get in sports, it was disappointing to see a 160,000 seat beast like Bristol only have about 90,000 in attendance. The type of racing Bristol produces on their new surface may contribute to the demise, but there is something more to it.
Does NASCAR cost to much for a family to attend in this still depressed economic climate and is the sport in a decline after seeing monster growth at the end of the 1990’s? The answer to both is Yes.
California seats only 80,000, but because of declining attendance they had one of their two dates stripped from them before the start of the 2011 season. Last season with only one date, the Fontana, CA track was relatively full for the first time in nearly five years. But the problem with a track in Southern California is that there is so much to do on a weekend that always has perfect weather. NASCAR is low on the list that includes beaches, Hollywood and just the overall LA vibe. The people that attend the Fontana races usually aren’t from the area and require folks from elsewhere to fill the seats.
This weeks race is the fifth of the season, but yet west coast fans have already been treated to events in Las Vegas and Phoenix. Fontana will lose out to those two facilities on just about every traveling NASCAR fans' bucket-list. Not even Danica Patrick driving (which she isn’t this week) can change NASCAR’s appeal in SoCal.
But even if we don’t want to go to the race there, we’ll still be watching it on television and betting it at the sports books. The first four races have been fantastic with four different winners, won by four different manufacturers, on four different tracks and not even a hint on who is going to be the driver beat during the Chase. The favorites of Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson both look like they’re still in the midst of working out some issues while longer shots like Greg Biffle and last weeks winner, Brad Keselowski, create some intrigue.
The driver that no one seems to be talking about that has quietly gone about his business is Kevin Harvick who is currently second in points, nine points behind Biffle. Harvick captured his first win at what is deemed his home track last year in this race. He fiished runner-up in this race in 2010. Just because of those two runs he has to be considered a candidate to win.
“I just enjoy how the track has really spread out and the groove you can run from the bottom to the top," said Harvick who will be using a brand new chassis this week. "It’s also fun to race in front of a lot of your fans and friends that get to come to the race track from close to where we used to live.”
With only four races run and not having any track that is similar to go off of, we have to use last seasons race as a barometer along with past history there. We can also use a little bit of the Las Vegas results because both require lots of horse power even though the tracks run completely different.
Having established Las Vegas as part of the equation, we have to include Tony Stewart into all talk about who might win this week. Stewart had never won at Fontana until taking the checkers in 2010. Since 2009, a span of five races, Stewart has finished 13th or better with two top-5 finishes.
Fontana’s all-time leader in wins is Jimmie Johnson with five, including his first Cup win in 2002 during his rookie season. He has a sick 5.1 average in 17 starts that includes five runner-up finishes. Last season was one of those occasions when Harvick passed him late for the win. To take Johnson’s amazing feat even further on a recent basis, he’s finished in the top-3 in eight of his last nine starts there. So what makes him so good there?
“I’ve been really successful at Auto Club Speedway," Johnson said earlier this week. "It’s my home track. We got our first Sprint Cup career win there in ’02, so it’s a special track to me. I definitely always see some friends and family while we are out there. I remember last year, we were very close to victory lane, about three-quarters of a mile away from the trophy, but Kevin Harvick found a way around the outside. So, I know we’ll go there and be very competitive this time."
Johnson should be very competitive, not only because of his past record, but also because of the car he's bringing this week. He'll be using the same chassis that led 197 laps en route to a win at Kansas last season.
Whenever Johnson isn’t winning there, it’s a good probability that Matt Kenseth is. Kenseth is a three-time winner with an average finish of 9.9. We also have some similarities this year from the last time he won in 2009. It was also the same season he won the Daytona 500. Not that the two tracks correlate, but it is unique nonetheless.
“Fontana has always has been a track that I really enjoy racing at but it has changed a lot the last few years," said Kenseth. "It seems like we used to have a better handle on it before it got really rough, the cracks got wide, it wore out and the groove moved up so much. It is a really fun track and really challenging because of the huge cracks in the corners you have to drive around combined with the seams in the pavement. In order to have a good car, you have to get through the corners faster than everybody else. Everyone thinks it is a big horsepower track because it is a two-mile track, but it gets so slick and there is not a lot of grip in the corners as the run goes on. You just need to really have your car balanced well and have that momentum through the corners.”
Kenseth will be driving the same chassis that finished fourth in the fall Texas race last season.
Drivers we can also expect to do well include Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Biffle and maybe Edwards. No one is more scared of how Edwards season has gone thus far than him, except for maybe a bettor who took him to win the championship.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
2) #14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
4) #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
VegasInsider.com
 |
| Bristol is no longer the toughest ticket in sports |
Does NASCAR cost to much for a family to attend in this still depressed economic climate and is the sport in a decline after seeing monster growth at the end of the 1990’s? The answer to both is Yes.
California seats only 80,000, but because of declining attendance they had one of their two dates stripped from them before the start of the 2011 season. Last season with only one date, the Fontana, CA track was relatively full for the first time in nearly five years. But the problem with a track in Southern California is that there is so much to do on a weekend that always has perfect weather. NASCAR is low on the list that includes beaches, Hollywood and just the overall LA vibe. The people that attend the Fontana races usually aren’t from the area and require folks from elsewhere to fill the seats.
This weeks race is the fifth of the season, but yet west coast fans have already been treated to events in Las Vegas and Phoenix. Fontana will lose out to those two facilities on just about every traveling NASCAR fans' bucket-list. Not even Danica Patrick driving (which she isn’t this week) can change NASCAR’s appeal in SoCal.
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| Championship looks up for grabs in 2012 (Getty) |
The driver that no one seems to be talking about that has quietly gone about his business is Kevin Harvick who is currently second in points, nine points behind Biffle. Harvick captured his first win at what is deemed his home track last year in this race. He fiished runner-up in this race in 2010. Just because of those two runs he has to be considered a candidate to win.
“I just enjoy how the track has really spread out and the groove you can run from the bottom to the top," said Harvick who will be using a brand new chassis this week. "It’s also fun to race in front of a lot of your fans and friends that get to come to the race track from close to where we used to live.”
With only four races run and not having any track that is similar to go off of, we have to use last seasons race as a barometer along with past history there. We can also use a little bit of the Las Vegas results because both require lots of horse power even though the tracks run completely different.
Having established Las Vegas as part of the equation, we have to include Tony Stewart into all talk about who might win this week. Stewart had never won at Fontana until taking the checkers in 2010. Since 2009, a span of five races, Stewart has finished 13th or better with two top-5 finishes.
Fontana’s all-time leader in wins is Jimmie Johnson with five, including his first Cup win in 2002 during his rookie season. He has a sick 5.1 average in 17 starts that includes five runner-up finishes. Last season was one of those occasions when Harvick passed him late for the win. To take Johnson’s amazing feat even further on a recent basis, he’s finished in the top-3 in eight of his last nine starts there. So what makes him so good there?
 |
| Johnson and Harvick have dueled last 2 years at Fontana |
Johnson should be very competitive, not only because of his past record, but also because of the car he's bringing this week. He'll be using the same chassis that led 197 laps en route to a win at Kansas last season.
Whenever Johnson isn’t winning there, it’s a good probability that Matt Kenseth is. Kenseth is a three-time winner with an average finish of 9.9. We also have some similarities this year from the last time he won in 2009. It was also the same season he won the Daytona 500. Not that the two tracks correlate, but it is unique nonetheless.
“Fontana has always has been a track that I really enjoy racing at but it has changed a lot the last few years," said Kenseth. "It seems like we used to have a better handle on it before it got really rough, the cracks got wide, it wore out and the groove moved up so much. It is a really fun track and really challenging because of the huge cracks in the corners you have to drive around combined with the seams in the pavement. In order to have a good car, you have to get through the corners faster than everybody else. Everyone thinks it is a big horsepower track because it is a two-mile track, but it gets so slick and there is not a lot of grip in the corners as the run goes on. You just need to really have your car balanced well and have that momentum through the corners.”
Kenseth will be driving the same chassis that finished fourth in the fall Texas race last season.
Drivers we can also expect to do well include Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Biffle and maybe Edwards. No one is more scared of how Edwards season has gone thus far than him, except for maybe a bettor who took him to win the championship.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
2) #14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
4) #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
LVH Super Book Odds to Win 2012 California Auto Club 400
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| California Boys: Harvick nipped Johnson late in last years race (Getty) |
AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, MARCH 25, 2012
JIMMIE JOHNSON 6
CARL EDWARDS 8
KYLE BUSCH 7
MATT KENSETH 8
JEFF GORDON 8
TONY STEWART 7
KEVIN HARVICK 10
KASEY KAHNE 12
DENNY HAMLIN 20
GREG BIFFLE 12
BRAD KESELOWSKI 12
DALE EARNHARDT JR 20
CLINT BOWYER 30
RYAN NEWMAN 30
AJ ALLMENDINGER 30
MARTIN TRUEX JR 35
MARK MARTIN 35
JEFF BURTON 50
JOEY LOGANO 60
JUAN MONTOYA 60
JAMIE McMURRAY 60
KURT BUSCH 60
PAUL MENARD 60
MARCOS AMBROSE 60
ARIC ALMIROLA 100
REGAN SMITH 100
BRENDAN GAUGHAN 500
BOBBY LABONTE 500
DAVID RAGAN 500
FIELD 300
AUTO CLUB 400 MATCHUPS
AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, MARCH 25, 2012
JIMMIE JOHNSON -130
MATT KENSETH +110
JIMMIE JOHNSON -130
TONY STEWART +110
CARL EDWARDS -110
TONY STEWART -110
CARL EDWARDS -130
KYLE BUSCH +110
KYLE BUSCH -130
KEVIN HARVICK +110
KEVIN HARVICK -130
JEFF GORDON +110
JEFF GORDON -110
GREG BIFFLE -110
KASEY KAHNE -110
BRAD KESELOWSK -110
KASEY KAHNE +130
GREG BIFFLE -150
BRAD KESELOWSKI -140
DENNY HAMLIN +120
DALE EARNHARDT JR -110
CLINT BOWYER -110
DALE EARNHARDT JR -110
RYAN NEWMAN -110
RYAN NEWMAN -110
CLINT BOWYER -110
MARK MARTIN -120
MARTIN TRUEX JR EVEN
JOEY LOGANO -110
AJ ALLMENDINGER -110
JEFF BURTON -110
AJ ALLMENDINGER -110
JEFF BURTON -110
JAMIE McMURRAY -110
JUAN MONTOYA -110
JAMIE McMURRAY -110
PAUL MENARD EVEN
JUAN MONTOYA -120
MARCOS AMBROSE +120
PAUL MENARD -140
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Final 2012 Bristol Food City 500 Driver Ratings Following All Practices
Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 18, 2012 - 10:16 am (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Kyle Busch 5/1 10th 13th 2nd 2nd
Five time winner, including ‘11 spring race and four of his last six starts; new chassis this week.
2. Brad Keselowski 15/1 23rd 5th 21st 4th
2011 fall winner; had a great final practice on long runs, using new chassis this week.
3. Kasey Kahne 12/1 21st 10th 6th 5th
2007 runner-up; best average speeds in practice 3, best 10 consecutive lap average in practice 2.
4. Jeff Gordon 10/1 6th 4th 14th 9th
Five-time winner, the last coming in 2002; five top-5 finishes in last 11 starts
5. Ryan Newman 25/1 5th 3rd 3rd 1st
2004 runner-up, his last top-5 finish. Stellar final practice with best 10 consecutive lap average.
6. Greg Biffle 12/1 11th 1st 4th 15th
11.8 average finish in 18 starts with no career short track wins; team is in a groove right now.
7. A.J. Allmendinger 50/1 2nd 2nd 1st 17th
Outstanding two days of practices with fast average speeds; using new chassis this week.
8. Martin Truex Jr. 25/1 9th 15th 5th 8th
2011 fall runner-up; had third fastest average speeds in final practice.
9. Matt Kenseth 12/1 17th 21st 9th 9th
Two time winner with 6.2 average finish in last four starts; using new chassis this week.
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1 15th 18th 12th 12th
2004 winner with 11.7 average finish; second fastest average speeds in final practice.
Note: Kahne, Earnhardt Jr and Truex Jr’s fastest average speeds are based among all drivers that ran at least 60 laps in final practice. Jeff Burton ran a session high 108 laps, Jimmie Johnson 102.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Betting Notes:
Kasey Kahne has been driving me nuts the last three weeks with his practices. His car has looked the best at Phoenix, Las Vegas and now Bristol. He didn’t fare well in either of the two previous races, but I still have to take a shot on him to win.
Kyle Busch is the driver to beat not only because of his five wins at Bristol, but also because of his speed in Saturday’s practice. He’s got some power, especially on short runs, and if it comes down to Busch on re-start with 10 laps to go, he won’t be beat.
Because Busch’s odds are so low (5/1), it makes the betting equation a little more difficult. You can’t leave him out, but you also can’t deny how good some of the others like Kahne looked. In addition to Kahne, Brad Keselowski, A.J. Allmendinger and Martin Truex Jr look great and all of them have great prices. Ryan Newman and Dale Earnhardt Jr are even worth pondering a play.
Match-up of the week: Anyone against Tony Stewart
For some reason, this just isn’t one of Stewart’s best tracks. He’s only had three top-5 finishes in his last 20 starts and his only win came in 2001. His last three starts have seen him finish 28th, 19th and 27th.
Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 18, 2012 - 10:16 am (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Kyle Busch 5/1 10th 13th 2nd 2nd
Five time winner, including ‘11 spring race and four of his last six starts; new chassis this week.
2. Brad Keselowski 15/1 23rd 5th 21st 4th
2011 fall winner; had a great final practice on long runs, using new chassis this week.
3. Kasey Kahne 12/1 21st 10th 6th 5th
2007 runner-up; best average speeds in practice 3, best 10 consecutive lap average in practice 2.
4. Jeff Gordon 10/1 6th 4th 14th 9th
Five-time winner, the last coming in 2002; five top-5 finishes in last 11 starts
5. Ryan Newman 25/1 5th 3rd 3rd 1st
2004 runner-up, his last top-5 finish. Stellar final practice with best 10 consecutive lap average.
6. Greg Biffle 12/1 11th 1st 4th 15th
11.8 average finish in 18 starts with no career short track wins; team is in a groove right now.
7. A.J. Allmendinger 50/1 2nd 2nd 1st 17th
Outstanding two days of practices with fast average speeds; using new chassis this week.
8. Martin Truex Jr. 25/1 9th 15th 5th 8th
2011 fall runner-up; had third fastest average speeds in final practice.
9. Matt Kenseth 12/1 17th 21st 9th 9th
Two time winner with 6.2 average finish in last four starts; using new chassis this week.
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1 15th 18th 12th 12th
2004 winner with 11.7 average finish; second fastest average speeds in final practice.
Note: Kahne, Earnhardt Jr and Truex Jr’s fastest average speeds are based among all drivers that ran at least 60 laps in final practice. Jeff Burton ran a session high 108 laps, Jimmie Johnson 102.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Betting Notes:
Kasey Kahne has been driving me nuts the last three weeks with his practices. His car has looked the best at Phoenix, Las Vegas and now Bristol. He didn’t fare well in either of the two previous races, but I still have to take a shot on him to win.
Kyle Busch is the driver to beat not only because of his five wins at Bristol, but also because of his speed in Saturday’s practice. He’s got some power, especially on short runs, and if it comes down to Busch on re-start with 10 laps to go, he won’t be beat.
Because Busch’s odds are so low (5/1), it makes the betting equation a little more difficult. You can’t leave him out, but you also can’t deny how good some of the others like Kahne looked. In addition to Kahne, Brad Keselowski, A.J. Allmendinger and Martin Truex Jr look great and all of them have great prices. Ryan Newman and Dale Earnhardt Jr are even worth pondering a play.
Match-up of the week: Anyone against Tony Stewart
For some reason, this just isn’t one of Stewart’s best tracks. He’s only had three top-5 finishes in his last 20 starts and his only win came in 2001. His last three starts have seen him finish 28th, 19th and 27th.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
2012 Bristol Food City 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Last week in Las Vegas we got to see some major horsepower displayed, but not a lot of drivers were mixing it up while running in single file for most of the day. This week at Bristol we get some side-by-side short track racing which usually brings and the best and worst of drivers. The drama created on the track translates into must-see TV throughout the race.
“Racing at Bristol is like fighter jets in a gymnasium," said Carl Edwards earlier this week. "The banking is so high, you drive down in the corner and the forces pushing the car into the track seem so much greater than anywhere else we go. The rate at which the car is changing direction is very fast. It always takes me a few laps in the race, 10-15 laps in, to get comfortable with the pace of it because things are happening so quickly there.
Bristol is a high banked half-mile track that has multiple grooves allowing drivers to pass either high or low. We don’t see the type of love taps or punts we used to under the old layout where drivers fought for the bottom line, but the best thing about Bristol stills remains: it’s tight and cramped with all 43 drivers trying to create their own space when very little is available.
The favorite coming into this weeks race is Kyle Busch due to winning four of the last six races run there. He has five wins in 14 starts and it would seem appropriate that a driver with the nickname “Rowdy” would be the driver to beat on a track like Bristol.
“I’m not exactly sure what makes me so good at Bristol," said Busch when asked about his Bristol success. "I’ve just had a lot of success there, but I’ve also had some misfortune there, too. Ever since I got through my rookie year, I’ve just taken a liking to the place. Of course, I’ve been able to get some help from my brother (Kurt). He’s always been really, really good there. But, when they changed the track to this current surface, I just really took to it right away. I really liked it and I’ve been fast there, but also I’ve had great racecars from Joe Gibbs Racing."
The timing for Bristol couldn’t have come at a better time for Busch because he’s still searching for a good run that meets his standards. He’s had only one top-10 finish in the three races run thus far and currently sits 12th in points. The one positive out of Busch so far is that despite not having great cars, he’s been able take the finish allowed by the car and not try and push it more than it was capable of. The fact that he’s 12th right now could be a sign of maturity and finally understanding big picture racing.
Busch will be using a brand new chassis this week with hopes of getting his sixth career Bristol win and make him the active leader among drivers. He'll be half way to the track record of 12 held by Darrell Waltrip.
Carl Edwards is a two-time winner at Bristol that probably feels very fortunate to be where he’s at right now. In the last two races, Edwards did not have a good car, but what they did last week was amazing. After looking terrible in Saturday’s final practices, Edwards crew had to make the car better during the race. Edwards was not a contender throughout running outside the top-15, but during each pit stop, they got progressively better until ultimately finishing in fifth-place. That is the sign of championship team. Edwards best finish over the last six Bristol races was runner-up in this race last season.
Edwards will be using a chassis that saw action last season at Chicago (fourth-place) and Dover (third-place).
Sitting atop the leader board in points is Edwards’ teammate Greg Biffle. After three races, he’s the only driver to finish in the top-5 in all three. Bristol has been one of Biffle’s better tracks over his career. Although he’s never won a Cup race there, he does have an 11.8 average finish position that includes six top-5 finishes. This team is really clicking right now and although it’s early, he might be a driver to take an early shot with to win the championship. The LVH Super Book updated their future odds with Biffle at 12-to-1.
The favorites to win the championship are currently Edwards and Jimmie Johnson at 5-to-1. Just like Edwards, Johnson’s team showed why they are five-time champs. After wrecking their primary car in final practice, the No. 48 team got their back-up off the hauler and set-up in time for Johnson to run the final 20 minutes of practice. They worked on their car making it better in each pit stop and went on to contend for the win until ultimately settling for a runner-up finish.
Bristol had not been one of Johnson’s best tracks, but when they changed to the variable banking it made the track run like a mini-Dover and Johnson excelled. He captured a win in 2010 and has finished no worse than eighth in five of his last six starts.
Johnson has a pretty good car this week as well. In five 2011 starts, the chassis never finished worse than ninth and included runner-up finishes at California and Atlanta.
Matt Kenseth is a two-time Bristol winner, doing so on the old layout. He’s finished in the top-10 in each of his last five Bristol starts with a best of fourth in this race last season. He'll be using a brand new car this week.
Jeff Gordon is a five-time Bristol winner, the last coming in 2002. He’s been competitive on the new layout with three top-5 finishes, including a best of third in the fall race last season.
Tony Stewart has an even larger gap in time from his last win than Gordon does. Stewart thought Bristol was easy after winning in 2001, but since then he’s managed only three top-5 finishes in 20 starts. He was runner-up in 2010, but his last three starts have seen him finish 19th or worse.
Brad Keselowski charged hard for the win last fall and just like Kyle Busch, this track suits his attitude perfect. With all the heat on Kyle Busch from NASCAR and his sponsors, we don’t get to see the true “Rowdy” come out to play anymore, but Keselowski could be that type of villain we like to love and hate at the same time. Here’s to hoping Keselwoski picks a fight Sunday afternoon and shakes some things up in the series.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
2) #16 Greg Biffle (14/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
4) #17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
5) # 2 Brad Keselowski (18/1)
VegasInsider.com
 |
| Kyle Busch has been king of the concrete (Getty) |
“Racing at Bristol is like fighter jets in a gymnasium," said Carl Edwards earlier this week. "The banking is so high, you drive down in the corner and the forces pushing the car into the track seem so much greater than anywhere else we go. The rate at which the car is changing direction is very fast. It always takes me a few laps in the race, 10-15 laps in, to get comfortable with the pace of it because things are happening so quickly there.
Bristol is a high banked half-mile track that has multiple grooves allowing drivers to pass either high or low. We don’t see the type of love taps or punts we used to under the old layout where drivers fought for the bottom line, but the best thing about Bristol stills remains: it’s tight and cramped with all 43 drivers trying to create their own space when very little is available.
The favorite coming into this weeks race is Kyle Busch due to winning four of the last six races run there. He has five wins in 14 starts and it would seem appropriate that a driver with the nickname “Rowdy” would be the driver to beat on a track like Bristol.
“I’m not exactly sure what makes me so good at Bristol," said Busch when asked about his Bristol success. "I’ve just had a lot of success there, but I’ve also had some misfortune there, too. Ever since I got through my rookie year, I’ve just taken a liking to the place. Of course, I’ve been able to get some help from my brother (Kurt). He’s always been really, really good there. But, when they changed the track to this current surface, I just really took to it right away. I really liked it and I’ve been fast there, but also I’ve had great racecars from Joe Gibbs Racing."
The timing for Bristol couldn’t have come at a better time for Busch because he’s still searching for a good run that meets his standards. He’s had only one top-10 finish in the three races run thus far and currently sits 12th in points. The one positive out of Busch so far is that despite not having great cars, he’s been able take the finish allowed by the car and not try and push it more than it was capable of. The fact that he’s 12th right now could be a sign of maturity and finally understanding big picture racing.
Busch will be using a brand new chassis this week with hopes of getting his sixth career Bristol win and make him the active leader among drivers. He'll be half way to the track record of 12 held by Darrell Waltrip.
Carl Edwards is a two-time winner at Bristol that probably feels very fortunate to be where he’s at right now. In the last two races, Edwards did not have a good car, but what they did last week was amazing. After looking terrible in Saturday’s final practices, Edwards crew had to make the car better during the race. Edwards was not a contender throughout running outside the top-15, but during each pit stop, they got progressively better until ultimately finishing in fifth-place. That is the sign of championship team. Edwards best finish over the last six Bristol races was runner-up in this race last season.
Edwards will be using a chassis that saw action last season at Chicago (fourth-place) and Dover (third-place).
Sitting atop the leader board in points is Edwards’ teammate Greg Biffle. After three races, he’s the only driver to finish in the top-5 in all three. Bristol has been one of Biffle’s better tracks over his career. Although he’s never won a Cup race there, he does have an 11.8 average finish position that includes six top-5 finishes. This team is really clicking right now and although it’s early, he might be a driver to take an early shot with to win the championship. The LVH Super Book updated their future odds with Biffle at 12-to-1.
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| Johnson has adapted well to Bristol's new surface (Getty) |
Bristol had not been one of Johnson’s best tracks, but when they changed to the variable banking it made the track run like a mini-Dover and Johnson excelled. He captured a win in 2010 and has finished no worse than eighth in five of his last six starts.
Johnson has a pretty good car this week as well. In five 2011 starts, the chassis never finished worse than ninth and included runner-up finishes at California and Atlanta.
Matt Kenseth is a two-time Bristol winner, doing so on the old layout. He’s finished in the top-10 in each of his last five Bristol starts with a best of fourth in this race last season. He'll be using a brand new car this week.
Jeff Gordon is a five-time Bristol winner, the last coming in 2002. He’s been competitive on the new layout with three top-5 finishes, including a best of third in the fall race last season.
Tony Stewart has an even larger gap in time from his last win than Gordon does. Stewart thought Bristol was easy after winning in 2001, but since then he’s managed only three top-5 finishes in 20 starts. He was runner-up in 2010, but his last three starts have seen him finish 19th or worse.
Brad Keselowski charged hard for the win last fall and just like Kyle Busch, this track suits his attitude perfect. With all the heat on Kyle Busch from NASCAR and his sponsors, we don’t get to see the true “Rowdy” come out to play anymore, but Keselowski could be that type of villain we like to love and hate at the same time. Here’s to hoping Keselwoski picks a fight Sunday afternoon and shakes some things up in the series.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
2) #16 Greg Biffle (14/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
4) #17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
5) # 2 Brad Keselowski (18/1)
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
LVH Super Book Odds to Win 2012 Bristol Food City 500
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| Kyle Busch is the 5-to-1 favorite to win Sunday at Bristol (Getty) |
BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, MARCH 18, 2012
JIMMIE JOHNSON 7
CARL EDWARDS 8
KYLE BUSCH 5
MATT KENSETH 12
JEFF GORDON 10
TONY STEWART 8
KEVIN HARVICK 10
KASEY KAHNE 12
DENNY HAMLIN 12
GREG BIFFLE 12
BRAD KESELOWSKI 15
DALE EARNHARDT JR 25
CLINT BOWYER 25
RYAN NEWMAN 25
AJ ALLMENDINGER 50
MARTIN TRUEX JR 25
JEFF BURTON 40
JOEY LOGANO 50
JUAN MONTOYA 40
JAMIE McMURRAY 30
KURT BUSCH 30
PAUL MENARD 60
MARCOS AMBROSE 60
BRIAN VICKERS 100
ARIC ALMIROLA 100
REGAN SMITH 100
BRENDAN GAUGHAN 300
BOBBY LABONTE 500
DAVID RAGAN 500
FIELD 100
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Final 2012 Las Vegas Kobalt Tools 400 Driver Ratings Following All Practices
Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Kobalt Tools 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Kasey Kahne 10/1 8th 1st 2nd 8th
2004 runner-up with 14.9 average finish in 8 starts; had strongest overall practices.
2. Tony Stewart 8/1 3rd 7th 10th 13th
Two-time runner-up, one of only three tracks yet to win at; using winning ‘11 Chicago chassis.
3. Kevin Harvick 10/1 10th 3rd 12th 2nd
2010 runner-up with a 13.2 average finish in 11 starts. Fastest average speeds in final practice.
4. Matt Kenseth 7/1 11th 11th 24th 7th
Two-time winner with 11.7 average finish in 12 starts; using ‘11 chassis that won two races.
5. Jimmie Johnson 8/1 1st 6th 4th 24th
Four-time winner with track best 10.6 average finish; using back-up car after wreck in practice.
6. Mark Martin 30/1 9th 13th 21st 3rd
1998 inaugural winner with 13.1 average finish; one of only four drivers to start every Vegas race.
7. Kyle Busch 8/1 20th 2nd 5th 19th
Won in 2009 starting from the rear (engine change); using back-up car and again starts from rear.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr 30/1 6th 4th 1st 17th
Two-time runner-up with 16.8 average finish in 12 starts; using ‘11 Homestead chassis.
9. Marcos Ambrose 50/1 4th 15th 16th 4th
Using same chassis that finished fourth at Vegas and fifth at Charlotte; looked good in practice.
10. Greg Biffle 12/1 5th 9th 7th 15th
Best finish of third in 2008 with a 14.8 average finish; using Texas chassis that ran as No. 6 in ‘11.
Note: Two-time winner Carl Edwards was one of the favorites to win coming into the weekend, but poor practices revealed that he might struggle again like he did last week at Phoenix.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Practice Notes:
I’m a little gun shy with Kasey Kahne after taking a beating in backing him last week in Phoenix. It’s almost the exact same circumstances this week as Kahne comes in with the most impressive practice sessions. He’ll be starting from the pole and should contend for the win, but he’ll have to be careful carrying all that speed around turn four. Several drivers have found themselves in trouble there this weekend.
Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick haven’t been talked about much during the week, but they both have the look of a winner this week. A win at Las Vegas would be a first for each and also a first for Richard Childress Racing.
Dale Earnhardt Jr is an interesting look at 30-to-1 because he was so solid in all of the practices. It’s been quite a while since we saw Junior look so good during a practice on these kind of tracks, but he’s on par with all the other Hendrick drivers that should fare well Sunday.
Match-up of the week:
Matt Kenseth -110 vs. Carl Edwards: Based on what I saw in practice, Edwards looks to be a driver that will be 20th or worse all race. Kenseth should have a top-5 car and could contend for the win.
Final Practice Speeds - 10 Consecutive Lap Averages
Kobalt Tools 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Kasey Kahne 10/1 8th 1st 2nd 8th
2004 runner-up with 14.9 average finish in 8 starts; had strongest overall practices.
2. Tony Stewart 8/1 3rd 7th 10th 13th
Two-time runner-up, one of only three tracks yet to win at; using winning ‘11 Chicago chassis.
3. Kevin Harvick 10/1 10th 3rd 12th 2nd
2010 runner-up with a 13.2 average finish in 11 starts. Fastest average speeds in final practice.
4. Matt Kenseth 7/1 11th 11th 24th 7th
Two-time winner with 11.7 average finish in 12 starts; using ‘11 chassis that won two races.
5. Jimmie Johnson 8/1 1st 6th 4th 24th
Four-time winner with track best 10.6 average finish; using back-up car after wreck in practice.
6. Mark Martin 30/1 9th 13th 21st 3rd
1998 inaugural winner with 13.1 average finish; one of only four drivers to start every Vegas race.
7. Kyle Busch 8/1 20th 2nd 5th 19th
Won in 2009 starting from the rear (engine change); using back-up car and again starts from rear.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr 30/1 6th 4th 1st 17th
Two-time runner-up with 16.8 average finish in 12 starts; using ‘11 Homestead chassis.
9. Marcos Ambrose 50/1 4th 15th 16th 4th
Using same chassis that finished fourth at Vegas and fifth at Charlotte; looked good in practice.
10. Greg Biffle 12/1 5th 9th 7th 15th
Best finish of third in 2008 with a 14.8 average finish; using Texas chassis that ran as No. 6 in ‘11.
Note: Two-time winner Carl Edwards was one of the favorites to win coming into the weekend, but poor practices revealed that he might struggle again like he did last week at Phoenix.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Practice Notes:
I’m a little gun shy with Kasey Kahne after taking a beating in backing him last week in Phoenix. It’s almost the exact same circumstances this week as Kahne comes in with the most impressive practice sessions. He’ll be starting from the pole and should contend for the win, but he’ll have to be careful carrying all that speed around turn four. Several drivers have found themselves in trouble there this weekend.
Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick haven’t been talked about much during the week, but they both have the look of a winner this week. A win at Las Vegas would be a first for each and also a first for Richard Childress Racing.
Dale Earnhardt Jr is an interesting look at 30-to-1 because he was so solid in all of the practices. It’s been quite a while since we saw Junior look so good during a practice on these kind of tracks, but he’s on par with all the other Hendrick drivers that should fare well Sunday.
Match-up of the week:
Matt Kenseth -110 vs. Carl Edwards: Based on what I saw in practice, Edwards looks to be a driver that will be 20th or worse all race. Kenseth should have a top-5 car and could contend for the win.
Final Practice Speeds - 10 Consecutive Lap Averages
Las Vegas Practice Notes: Logano Fastest in Happy Hour, Johnson Wrecks
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| Kasey Kahne, again, looks the best in practice. (Getty) |
Mark Martin, Kevin Harvick, Marcos Ambrose and Martin Truex Jr. rounded out the top-five. Harvick led all drivers with the fastest average speeds. Ambrose spun off of turn 4 in the middle of practice, but was able to save the car with no damage.
Kurt Busch showed his No. 51 has found some speed with the sixth fastest lap. Matt Kenseth was able to improve upon the days first practice by finishing with the seventh fast single lap and Kasey Kahne continued his strong weekend with the eighth best lap. Kahne also had the second fastest average speeds while running 35 laps.
The big news of the day was Jimmie Johnson wrecking his awesome primary car at the beginning of the session forcing him into a back-up car. It may not all be bad news, though. Of course he would have loved to take the fast car into the race, but the back-up car actually has a better past history than the primary.
In four 2011 starts with Chassis No. 669, Johnson never finished worse than seventh. He was runner-up at Dover and Michigan, third at Kentucky and seventh at Kansas. The big question is how quickly they can transfer over all their great set-up notes from the wrecked car into the back-up.
Johnson got about 20 minutes of practice with the back-up and finished with the 24th fastest lap. Chances are he'll be just fine.
Other drivers that looked good were Aric Almirola, 11th fastest, and Regan Smith, 10th fastest. A.J. Allmendinger continued to look sharp as he ran 49 laps for an average speed of 178.769. Tony Stewart said his car was "good" after running a session high 52 laps and finishing with the 13th fastest lap.
The mystery on the day continues to be Carl Edwards showing no speed in either of Saturday's practices. Edwards was 29th fastest on the day in what looks very similar to what we saw last week at Phoenix.
Overall, the most impressive on the day looks to be Kahne. He is doing just about anything he wants on the track and is fast running high or low. He was in a similar situation last week at Phoenix, but that race didn't turn out so well.
Top-5 Practice Speeds from Saturday's Final Practice Session:
1. Joey Logano 182.970 mph (38 laps for 173.855 average)
2. Mark Martin 182.698 mph (41 laps for 178.976 average)
3. Kevin Harvick 182.698 mph (39 laps for 179.724 average - fastest overall)
4. Marcos Ambrose 182.618 mph (29 laps for 169.337 average)
5. Martin Truex Jr 182.618 mph (40 laps for 175.480 average
Notes: Johnson wrecked primary car, Kyle Busch ran practice in a back-up car and Greg Biffle’s team was working on an engine problem that occurred at the end of practice that might force them into an engine change. Juan Pablo Montoya will also join Busch and Johnson starting in the back of the field because they made an engine change on the No. 42.
Practice 3
Every Hendrick Car Makes Top-10 in Early Saturday Practice
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| Johnson had fastest 10 consecutive lap average (Getty) |
Dale Earnhardt, Jr., with a lap speed of 184.957 mph, posted the fastest lap Saturday afternoon during the second Kobalt Tools 400 practice session at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Sunday’s pole-sitter, Kasey Kahne, was second fastest with a lap speed of 184.754 mph, followed by AJ Allmendinger (184.666 mph), Jimmie Johnson (184.489) and Kyle Busch (184.187). Allmendinger and Kahne had the fastest average speeds among all drivers and Johnson finished with the best 10 consecutive lap average.
Rounding out the top-ten fastest during practice was Aric Almirola (184.099), Greg Biffle (184.049), Brad Keselowski (184.030), Jeff Gordon (183.886) and Tony Stewart (183.817).
Some surprises from the session was seeing Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards not finish with better speeds. We’ll see if they can make the necessary changes needed in the final practice scheduled to go off at 12:20 pm (PDT). One thing is for sure, the Hendrick cars are dialed in.
Top 5 Practice Speeds from Saturtday's early session:
1. Dale Earnhardt Jr 184.957 mph (27 laps for 181.656 mph average)
2. Kasey Kahne 184.754 mph (27 laps for 182.224 average)
3. A.J. Allmendinger 184.666 mph (25 laps for 182.266 average - fastest overall)
4. Jimmie Johnson 184.489 mph (31 laps for 181.503 average)
5. Kyle Busch 184.187 mph (45 laps for 181.892 average)
Note: Kyle Busch will have to use a back-up car this week due to banging his car hard against the wall in turn 4 during practice.
Jimmie Johnson had the fastest 10 consecutive lap average during the session followed by Kevin Harvick.
Practice 2
Practice 1
Friday, March 9, 2012
Kenseth Should be Considered Favorite Sunday
By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal
Betting for Sunday's Sprint Cup Kobalt Tools 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway will double the handle of the season-opening Daytona 500, NASCAR's biggest race of the year and one that was on the board for more than six weeks.
Here's a look at the top drivers expected to contend, with odds posted by the LVH:
■ Matt Kenseth (12-1): Although Kenseth's two Las Vegas wins came in 2003 and 2004 with a flatter configuration, he proved to be one of the series' toughest drivers on high-banked, 1.5-mile tracks last season, winning at Texas and Charlotte. He'll be using the same chassis from those races this week and should be considered the driver to beat.
■ Carl Edwards (10-1): He finished 17th Sunday at Phoenix International Raceway, a track at which he had dominant cars in his previous three starts, but he gets a mulligan because it was a new chassis.
He hasn't won a race since last year in Las Vegas, but the car he'll drive this week suggests he'll be fine. He used it in last year's Sprint Cup Chase to finish second at Homestead and Texas and third at Charlotte, tracks that translate well to LVMS.
■ Jimmie Johnson (7-1): He struggled on the high-banked, 1.5-mile tracks last season -- tracks at which he used to dominate -- and it cost him a sixth straight title. They have the best crew chief, driver and money in the series to make a quick turnaround, but it might be wise to see how Johnson fares in a few races before laying a favorite's price on him.
■ Tony Stewart (7-1): He didn't win in his first 26 races last year, then took five of the 10 Chase races, with three on 1.5-mile tracks. This week he'll be using the winning chassis from Chicago that got his great Chase run started. His practice times aren't always telling, so don't discount him should he run outside the top 15.
■ Kyle Busch (8-1): He didn't fare well on this type of track last season, but he's always a wild card. He has won at Las Vegas (2009), but also has lows of 41st (2004) and 38th (2011) for an average finish of 15th in eight starts. He'll be running a new chassis this week, which could offer some optimism for a new beginning on the 1.5-mile tracks.
■ Kurt Busch (60-1): This will be a major test for the Phoenix Racing program. Busch can use his driving skills to the fullest in plate races or short tracks with an underfunded team, but without great horsepower on these type of tracks, half the field will pass him by. The hope here is that there is more Hendrick Motorsports influence in 2012 than in previous years.
■ Jeff Gordon (8-1): His drive for five championships starts this week in Las Vegas. His last title came in 2001, the same year he won his only Vegas race. At the last two 1.5-mile tracks Gordon raced on in 2011, he finished strong (fifth and sixth), which should carry some momentum this week.
A few drivers that could fare well with longer odds include Greg Biffle (20-1), Martin Truex Jr. (30-1) and, surprisingly, Marcos Ambrose (75-1). Ambrose had one of his five top-5 finishes last season at LVMS and will be using the same chassis this week.
After the race, take what you saw at LVMS and make a wager on a driver or two to win the championship. The betting equation should include a good Saturday practice that translated into a great run Sunday.
In the previous 14 races in Las Vegas, five of the winning drivers -- Johnson (three times), Kenseth and Gordon -- went on to win the Cup championship. So if you bet Sunday's winner, you'll have a 36 percent chance of cashing your ticket at the end of the season.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Las Vegas Review-Journal
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| Kenseth has a lot going for him coming into Vegas (Getty) |
Here's a look at the top drivers expected to contend, with odds posted by the LVH:
■ Matt Kenseth (12-1): Although Kenseth's two Las Vegas wins came in 2003 and 2004 with a flatter configuration, he proved to be one of the series' toughest drivers on high-banked, 1.5-mile tracks last season, winning at Texas and Charlotte. He'll be using the same chassis from those races this week and should be considered the driver to beat.
■ Carl Edwards (10-1): He finished 17th Sunday at Phoenix International Raceway, a track at which he had dominant cars in his previous three starts, but he gets a mulligan because it was a new chassis.
He hasn't won a race since last year in Las Vegas, but the car he'll drive this week suggests he'll be fine. He used it in last year's Sprint Cup Chase to finish second at Homestead and Texas and third at Charlotte, tracks that translate well to LVMS.
■ Jimmie Johnson (7-1): He struggled on the high-banked, 1.5-mile tracks last season -- tracks at which he used to dominate -- and it cost him a sixth straight title. They have the best crew chief, driver and money in the series to make a quick turnaround, but it might be wise to see how Johnson fares in a few races before laying a favorite's price on him.
■ Tony Stewart (7-1): He didn't win in his first 26 races last year, then took five of the 10 Chase races, with three on 1.5-mile tracks. This week he'll be using the winning chassis from Chicago that got his great Chase run started. His practice times aren't always telling, so don't discount him should he run outside the top 15.
■ Kyle Busch (8-1): He didn't fare well on this type of track last season, but he's always a wild card. He has won at Las Vegas (2009), but also has lows of 41st (2004) and 38th (2011) for an average finish of 15th in eight starts. He'll be running a new chassis this week, which could offer some optimism for a new beginning on the 1.5-mile tracks.
■ Kurt Busch (60-1): This will be a major test for the Phoenix Racing program. Busch can use his driving skills to the fullest in plate races or short tracks with an underfunded team, but without great horsepower on these type of tracks, half the field will pass him by. The hope here is that there is more Hendrick Motorsports influence in 2012 than in previous years.
■ Jeff Gordon (8-1): His drive for five championships starts this week in Las Vegas. His last title came in 2001, the same year he won his only Vegas race. At the last two 1.5-mile tracks Gordon raced on in 2011, he finished strong (fifth and sixth), which should carry some momentum this week.
A few drivers that could fare well with longer odds include Greg Biffle (20-1), Martin Truex Jr. (30-1) and, surprisingly, Marcos Ambrose (75-1). Ambrose had one of his five top-5 finishes last season at LVMS and will be using the same chassis this week.
After the race, take what you saw at LVMS and make a wager on a driver or two to win the championship. The betting equation should include a good Saturday practice that translated into a great run Sunday.
In the previous 14 races in Las Vegas, five of the winning drivers -- Johnson (three times), Kenseth and Gordon -- went on to win the Cup championship. So if you bet Sunday's winner, you'll have a 36 percent chance of cashing your ticket at the end of the season.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Las Vegas Success Parlays into NASCAR Championships
By Micah Roberts
Gaming Today
As with every Las Vegas race, it’s the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams first chance to see what their program on these type of tracks has in store for them. There was no official pre-season testing and the first two races run at Daytona or Phoenix aren’t a good barometer to get a read on what will work here which requires lots of horsepower and great handling.
The teams also have to combat the unknown of the new electronic fuel injection which is a work in progress as crew chiefs try to figure out what to do with all the great data now at their fingertips that they never had before.
Whoever gets the jump on their program this week will have an early head start at winning the championship because it’s this type of track that matters most in the overall equation. Do well in Las Vegas and the quality information gained here will carry over into at least 12 other races.
The perfect example of Las Vegas being a prelude to success is last season where Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart finished 1-2, a race that Stewart gave away in the pits during his final stop. Fast forward to November in Homestead and it was the same two finishing 1-2 for the Championship, except it was Stewart finishing on top to win his third title.
We can take it step further with five other Cup Championships that got their campaign started by winning in Las Vegas. Three of Jimmie Johnson’s four Vegas wins resulted in titles. Matt Kenseth had only one win in 2003, Las Vegas, but did so consistently well on the similar tracks for the remainder of the season that he had accumulated enough points to win it all. Jeff Gordon also managed to parlay his only Vegas win into a Championship in 2001, the final of his four trophies.
So before departing Las Vegas, take what you saw over the weekend and make a wager on a driver or two to win the Cup Championship. The betting equation should include a good Saturday practice that translated into a great run in Sunday’s race. Just going by what has transpired in the previous 14 Las Vegas races, you’ll have a 36% chance of winning by simply betting on whoever wins the race Sunday.
Here's a look at the current odds to win the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship from the LVH Super Book:
2012 SPRINT CUP CHAMPIONSHIP
JIMMIE JOHNSON 5
CARL EDWARDS 5
KYLE BUSCH 7
MATT KENSETH 10
JEFF GORDON 8
KASEY KAHNE 15
TONY STEWART 12
KEVIN HARVICK 6
DENNY HAMLIN 8
GREG BIFFLE 18
BRAD KESELOWSKI 15
CLINT BOWYER 60
DALE EARNHARDT JR 25
RYAN NEWMAN 60
KURT BUSCH 200
MARTIN TRUEX JR 60
JEFF BURTON 60
JOEY LOGANO 60
JUAN MONTOYA 100
JAMIE McMURRAY 100
AJ ALLMENDINGER 60
PAUL MENARD 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 100
FIELD 60
Gaming Today
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| The top-2 finishers at Vegas last year were 1-2 in season points (Getty) |
The teams also have to combat the unknown of the new electronic fuel injection which is a work in progress as crew chiefs try to figure out what to do with all the great data now at their fingertips that they never had before.
Whoever gets the jump on their program this week will have an early head start at winning the championship because it’s this type of track that matters most in the overall equation. Do well in Las Vegas and the quality information gained here will carry over into at least 12 other races.
The perfect example of Las Vegas being a prelude to success is last season where Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart finished 1-2, a race that Stewart gave away in the pits during his final stop. Fast forward to November in Homestead and it was the same two finishing 1-2 for the Championship, except it was Stewart finishing on top to win his third title.
We can take it step further with five other Cup Championships that got their campaign started by winning in Las Vegas. Three of Jimmie Johnson’s four Vegas wins resulted in titles. Matt Kenseth had only one win in 2003, Las Vegas, but did so consistently well on the similar tracks for the remainder of the season that he had accumulated enough points to win it all. Jeff Gordon also managed to parlay his only Vegas win into a Championship in 2001, the final of his four trophies.
So before departing Las Vegas, take what you saw over the weekend and make a wager on a driver or two to win the Cup Championship. The betting equation should include a good Saturday practice that translated into a great run in Sunday’s race. Just going by what has transpired in the previous 14 Las Vegas races, you’ll have a 36% chance of winning by simply betting on whoever wins the race Sunday.
Here's a look at the current odds to win the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship from the LVH Super Book:
2012 SPRINT CUP CHAMPIONSHIP
JIMMIE JOHNSON 5
CARL EDWARDS 5
KYLE BUSCH 7
MATT KENSETH 10
JEFF GORDON 8
KASEY KAHNE 15
TONY STEWART 12
KEVIN HARVICK 6
DENNY HAMLIN 8
GREG BIFFLE 18
BRAD KESELOWSKI 15
CLINT BOWYER 60
DALE EARNHARDT JR 25
RYAN NEWMAN 60
KURT BUSCH 200
MARTIN TRUEX JR 60
JEFF BURTON 60
JOEY LOGANO 60
JUAN MONTOYA 100
JAMIE McMURRAY 100
AJ ALLMENDINGER 60
PAUL MENARD 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 100
FIELD 60
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
2012 Las Vegas Kobalt Tools 400 Preview: Stewart Looking for First Vegas Win
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
I’ve been to NASCAR races across the country with the sole purpose of being entertained, not so much by the race itself, but by the environment a race creates and I can say -- without any hint of hometown bias -- that Las Vegas tops them all.
When you look at all the elements that make a trip fun, Las Vegas is hard to top against any city in the world even without a NASCAR race.
There are places like Daytona and Bristol that capture more of a NASCAR feel, or historical places like Richmond, Darlington or Charlotte where you can almost feel the roots of the sport creeping into your soul, but after that, what are you going to do?
Are there hundreds of restaurants catering to all ends of a budget? Is there dozens of places that your kids can have the time of their life at? Or how about just a quality hotel to stay at with little fear of bed bugs invading your NASCAR weekend? Unlike anywhere else, Las Vegas answers all those questions with a resounding YES
It doesn’t matter whether you come with your family, buddies or by yourself, there is always something for everyone which is why over 150,000 people cram into the Las Vegas Motor Speedway every March while other tracks are seeing declines. Fans want to maximize their dollar on the few vacations they get over a year and Vegas gives them all an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
We have another amenity here in Las Vegas that appeals to some. Gambling.
Casino tables with be jumping all night long with little fear of losing this type crowd to the plush clubs where the new generation seems to spend all their money and time at in Las Vegas. Gambling isn’t a new experience to people from all over the country with all the Indian casinos sprouting up, but there’s no place you can roll the dice in such style and luxury as Vegas.
The one gambling equation that is purely unique to Las Vegas alone is actually being able to bet on the race. Sports books around town appeal to the masses by offering propositions on the race in Super Bowl-style propositions.
Most sports books offer odds to win on the weekly races with a small few offering head-head matchups. But when the Vegas race comes around, every book works diligently to put up as much as they can because the demand far outweighs the supply compared to the other races.
Las Vegas sports books can expect to do 95% more volume for this weekend’s Nationwide and Sprint Cup races than they’ll do for any other race this season, minus the Daytona 500. The only reason the Daytona 500 has so much volume is that the betting is open for almost six weeks before the green flags drops and they capture all the new daily visitors over that time.
Jimmie Johnson comes into this weekend’s Kobalt Tools 400 as the 7-to-1 favorite not just because he’s won at Las Vegas four times in the last seven years, but because his top competitor doesn’t look to be as strong.
Carl Edwards won at Las Vegas last year for the second time, but struggled last week at Phoenix, a track he had the best car at for three straight races prior. It’s not an indication that Edwards will do poorly, but it is a sign that his program might not be as good for the next few weeks which is why he is 10-to-1 and not the favorite.
However, this week Edwards is bringing a chassis to Las Vegas that makes it hard to believe it will run poorly like he ran last week when he ran a brand new car. Some of the great history includes runner-up finishes at Homestead and Texas along with a third-place finish at Charlotte. This car is a stud and should contend for the win.
“Last year was a huge weekend for us and I’m excited to go back," said Edwards. "I love racing at Vegas and it’s a fun place to go for the fans. This will be our first opportunity of the year to run on a 1.5-mile track and to try the things Bob Osborne and everyone at RFR have been working on over the winter. It’s a huge event for us strategically on the schedule to build our intermediate program, which is obviously very important in our quest for the championship.”
The fortunate part for bettors this week is that he did run poorly last week giving perhaps the best value on Edwards on this type of track in two years. Granted, his last win on the series was exactly a year ago at Las Vegas, but 10-to-1 is too hard to pass up. He should be included in all wagering equations this week.
Matt Kenseth is a two-time Las Vegas winner and finally might be able to take a breath of fresh air and enjoy his Daytona 500 victory after being paraded around the county on a publicity tour last week. He’s a great candidate this week just because of his success last season on these type of tracks where he won at Texas and Charlotte, the 1.5-mile sister tracks of Las Vegas. It's also a nice attraction with Kenseth that he's brought the exact same chassis that won both of those races.
“Las Vegas has been a good track for this team and organization, so I’m looking forward to racing there this weekend," said Kenseth's crew chief Jimmy Fennig. "It’s a racetrack I enjoy every year because I always look forward to having a fast race car there, and Matt (Kenseth) has had a lot of successful races at Las Vegas as well. We’re bringing a car that was a multiple race-winning car last year for us, so we’re hoping to have similar results out of it starting this weekend for our Zest team.”
Las Vegas remains one of the few tracks Tony Stewart has never won at, but he’s been real close with as runner-up twice. Last season he had the victory snatched out of his hand late with a lengthy final pit stop in car that was head and shoulders above everyone else. He won five races in last seasons Chase after not winning any in the first 26 and three of those wins came on 1.5-mile tracks.
It’s an entirely new season with changes to the car, electronic fuel injection and changes to Stewart's team with Steve Addington taking over as crew chief, but Stewart should be in goods hands this week. It was Addington who lead the way for Kyle Busch to win his Cup race in his home town in 2009.
Kevin Harvick has a 13.2 average finish in his 11 Vegas starts, the first of which was his very first Cup start after taking the ride over for Dale Earnhardt. The city is also a special place for the Bakersfield, CA native because it is where he and his wife Delana got married. The couple is expecting their first child this season with hopes adding to the excitement by finishing the year off with Harvick's first championship.
In order to get that championship it starts with tracks like this that dominate the schedule. Whoever does well in Las Vegas sets the tone to who will be good for the remainder of the season. Stewart and Edwards finished in the top-2 at Vegas last season as well as season points. In three of Johnson’s Vegas wins, he went on to win the Championship.
Other drivers we should expect to do well this week include Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle. Kahne looked to have the best car last week at Phoenix, but hit the wall early on to ruin a great opportunity at a win.
Enjoy the race weekend everyone and good luck with all your bets. Most of all, enjoy the city to it’s fullest and let it all hang out. Remember, there’s no last call in Las Vegas.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
#14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
#48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
#99 Carl Edwards (10/1)
#18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
#17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
Be sure to check back later during the week as I'll be posting some notes on how the cars performed in Friday and Saturday practices.
VegasInsider.com
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| Bad final pit stop cost Tony Stewart the Vegas win in 2011 (Getty) |
When you look at all the elements that make a trip fun, Las Vegas is hard to top against any city in the world even without a NASCAR race.
There are places like Daytona and Bristol that capture more of a NASCAR feel, or historical places like Richmond, Darlington or Charlotte where you can almost feel the roots of the sport creeping into your soul, but after that, what are you going to do?
Are there hundreds of restaurants catering to all ends of a budget? Is there dozens of places that your kids can have the time of their life at? Or how about just a quality hotel to stay at with little fear of bed bugs invading your NASCAR weekend? Unlike anywhere else, Las Vegas answers all those questions with a resounding YES
It doesn’t matter whether you come with your family, buddies or by yourself, there is always something for everyone which is why over 150,000 people cram into the Las Vegas Motor Speedway every March while other tracks are seeing declines. Fans want to maximize their dollar on the few vacations they get over a year and Vegas gives them all an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
We have another amenity here in Las Vegas that appeals to some. Gambling.
Casino tables with be jumping all night long with little fear of losing this type crowd to the plush clubs where the new generation seems to spend all their money and time at in Las Vegas. Gambling isn’t a new experience to people from all over the country with all the Indian casinos sprouting up, but there’s no place you can roll the dice in such style and luxury as Vegas.
The one gambling equation that is purely unique to Las Vegas alone is actually being able to bet on the race. Sports books around town appeal to the masses by offering propositions on the race in Super Bowl-style propositions.
Most sports books offer odds to win on the weekly races with a small few offering head-head matchups. But when the Vegas race comes around, every book works diligently to put up as much as they can because the demand far outweighs the supply compared to the other races.
Las Vegas sports books can expect to do 95% more volume for this weekend’s Nationwide and Sprint Cup races than they’ll do for any other race this season, minus the Daytona 500. The only reason the Daytona 500 has so much volume is that the betting is open for almost six weeks before the green flags drops and they capture all the new daily visitors over that time.
Jimmie Johnson comes into this weekend’s Kobalt Tools 400 as the 7-to-1 favorite not just because he’s won at Las Vegas four times in the last seven years, but because his top competitor doesn’t look to be as strong.
 |
| Carl Edwards has brought a strong chassis this week (Getty) |
However, this week Edwards is bringing a chassis to Las Vegas that makes it hard to believe it will run poorly like he ran last week when he ran a brand new car. Some of the great history includes runner-up finishes at Homestead and Texas along with a third-place finish at Charlotte. This car is a stud and should contend for the win.
“Last year was a huge weekend for us and I’m excited to go back," said Edwards. "I love racing at Vegas and it’s a fun place to go for the fans. This will be our first opportunity of the year to run on a 1.5-mile track and to try the things Bob Osborne and everyone at RFR have been working on over the winter. It’s a huge event for us strategically on the schedule to build our intermediate program, which is obviously very important in our quest for the championship.”
The fortunate part for bettors this week is that he did run poorly last week giving perhaps the best value on Edwards on this type of track in two years. Granted, his last win on the series was exactly a year ago at Las Vegas, but 10-to-1 is too hard to pass up. He should be included in all wagering equations this week.
 |
| Kenseth is using winning car from Texas and Charlotte |
“Las Vegas has been a good track for this team and organization, so I’m looking forward to racing there this weekend," said Kenseth's crew chief Jimmy Fennig. "It’s a racetrack I enjoy every year because I always look forward to having a fast race car there, and Matt (Kenseth) has had a lot of successful races at Las Vegas as well. We’re bringing a car that was a multiple race-winning car last year for us, so we’re hoping to have similar results out of it starting this weekend for our Zest team.”
Las Vegas remains one of the few tracks Tony Stewart has never won at, but he’s been real close with as runner-up twice. Last season he had the victory snatched out of his hand late with a lengthy final pit stop in car that was head and shoulders above everyone else. He won five races in last seasons Chase after not winning any in the first 26 and three of those wins came on 1.5-mile tracks.
It’s an entirely new season with changes to the car, electronic fuel injection and changes to Stewart's team with Steve Addington taking over as crew chief, but Stewart should be in goods hands this week. It was Addington who lead the way for Kyle Busch to win his Cup race in his home town in 2009.
Kevin Harvick has a 13.2 average finish in his 11 Vegas starts, the first of which was his very first Cup start after taking the ride over for Dale Earnhardt. The city is also a special place for the Bakersfield, CA native because it is where he and his wife Delana got married. The couple is expecting their first child this season with hopes adding to the excitement by finishing the year off with Harvick's first championship.
In order to get that championship it starts with tracks like this that dominate the schedule. Whoever does well in Las Vegas sets the tone to who will be good for the remainder of the season. Stewart and Edwards finished in the top-2 at Vegas last season as well as season points. In three of Johnson’s Vegas wins, he went on to win the Championship.
Other drivers we should expect to do well this week include Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle. Kahne looked to have the best car last week at Phoenix, but hit the wall early on to ruin a great opportunity at a win.
Enjoy the race weekend everyone and good luck with all your bets. Most of all, enjoy the city to it’s fullest and let it all hang out. Remember, there’s no last call in Las Vegas.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
#14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
#48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
#99 Carl Edwards (10/1)
#18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
#17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
Be sure to check back later during the week as I'll be posting some notes on how the cars performed in Friday and Saturday practices.
Monday, March 5, 2012
LVH Super Book Odds To Win 2012 Las Vegas Kobalt Tools 400
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| Johnson, Stewart and Kyle Busch are 7-to-1 favorites to win Sunday |
LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, MARCH 11, 2012
JIMMIE JOHNSON 7
KYLE BUSCH 7
JEFF GORDON 8
TONY STEWART 7
CARL EDWARDS 10
KEVIN HARVICK 10
KASEY KAHNE 10
MATT KENSETH 12
DENNY HAMLIN 12
GREG BIFFLE 20
BRAD KESELOWSKI 20
DALE EARNHARDT JR 20
KURT BUSCH 30
CLINT BOWYER 30
RYAN NEWMAN 30
AJ ALLMENDINGER 30
MARTIN TRUEX JR 30
MARK MARTIN 30
JEFF BURTON 40
JOEY LOGANO 50
JUAN MONTOYA 40
JAMIE McMURRAY 60
PAUL MENARD 60
MARCOS AMBROSE 75
ARIC ALMIROLA 100
REGAN SMITH 100
TREVOR BAYNE 100
BRENDAN GAUGHAN 200
BOBBY LABONTE 300
DAVE BLANEY 300
DAVID RAGAN 300
FIELD 100
KOBALT TOOLS 400 MATCHUPS
LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, MARCH 11, 2012
CARL EDWARDS -135
MATT KENSETH +115
CARL EDWARDS +110
TONY STEWART -130
CARL EDWARDS +110
JIMMIE JOHNSON -130
CARL EDWARDS EVEN
KYLE BUSCH -120
MATT KENSETH +115
JEFF GORDON -135
MATT KENSETH +120
KYLE BUSCH -140
MATT KENSETH +125
JIMMIE JOHSON -145
JIMMIE JOHNSON -110
TONY STEWART -110
JIMMIE JOHNSON -130
JEFF GORDON +110
JEFF GORDON -110
KEVIN HARVICK -110
KYLE BUSCH -110
JEFF GORDON -110
TONY STEWART -130
KYLE BUSCH +110
DENNY HAMLIN +120
KEVIN HARVICK -140
GREG BIFFLE +120
KEVIN HARVICK -140
GREG BIFFLE -110
DENNY HAMLIN -110
BRAD KESELOWSKI +110
GREG BIFFLE -130
KURT BUSCH -110
DENNY HAMLIN -110
BRAD KESELOWSKI +135
KEVIN HARVICK -155
MARTIN TRUEX JR -110
DALE EARNHARDT JR -110
DALE EARNHARDT JR -110
RYAN NEWMAN -110
MARTIN TRUEX JR -110
RYAN NEWMAN -110
CLINT BOWYER -110
DALE EARNHARDT JR -110
AJ ALLMENDINGER +110
CLINT BOWYER -130
MARK MARTIN -110
JUAN MONTOYA -110
JEFF BURTON EVEN
MARK MARTIN -120
JUAN MONTOYA -120
JEFF BURTON EVEN
KURT BUSCH -140
JEFF BURTON +120
JAMIE McMURRAY +110
PAUL MENARD -130
MARCOS AMBROSE -135
JOEY LOGANO +115
JOEY LOGANO -110
PAUL MENARD -110
MARCOS AMBROSE -120
JUAN MONTOYA EVEN
JAMIE McMURRAY -125
REGAN SMITH +105
ARIC ALMIROLA -120
TREVOR BAYNE EVEN
KOBALT TOOLS 400 FINISH POSITIONS
FINISH BY: TONY STEWART
OVER 7.5 -110
UNDER 7.5 -110
FINISH BY: JIMMIE JOHNSON
OVER 7.5 -110
UNDER 7.5 -110
FINISH BY: JEFF GORDON
OVER 8.5 -110
UNDER 8.5 -110
FINISH BY: KYLE BUSCH
OVER 8.5 -110
UNDER 8.5 -110
FINISH BY: KEVIN HARVICK
OVER 8.5 -110
UNDER 8.5 -110
FINISH BY: BRAD KESELOWSKI
OVER 10.5 -110
UNDER 10.5 -110
FINISH BY: DALE EARNHARDT JR
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110
FINISH BY: RYAN NEWMAN
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110
FINISH BY: MARTIN TRUEX JR
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110
WININNG CAR NUMBER WILL BE:
1-23 -140
24-99 +120
TOTAL CAUTIONS IN KOBALT TOOLS 400:
OVER 7.5 +120
UNDER 7.5 -140
**(At least 267 laps must be completed)
WINNING CAR NUMBER WILL BE:
ODD -110
EVEN -110
WINNING MANUFACTURER OF KOBALT TOOLS 400:
CHEVY -175
FORD +300
TOYOTA +400
DODGE +1200
PROP BETTING RULES
**Driver must start race for action
**No Parlays on Props
GROUP MATCHUPS
GROUP 1
CARL EDWARDS +230
MATT KENSETH +245
TONY STEWART +205
JIMMIE JOHSON +205
GROUP 2
GREG BIFFLE +240
KEVIN HARVICK +215
JEFF GORDON +215
KYLE BUSCH +215
GROUP 3
DENNY HAMLIN +210
KASEY KAHNE +195
BRAD KESELOWSKI +215
MARTIN TRUEX JR +270
GROUP 4
RYAN NEWMAN +210
DALE EARNHARDT JR +210
CLINT BOWYER +215
MARCOS AMBROSE +250
GROUP 5
AJ ALLMENDINGER +220
JUAN MONTOYA +220
KURT BUSCH +220
MARK MARTIN +225
GROUP 6
JOEY LOGANO +215
JEFF BURTON +215
PAUL MENARD +215
JAMIE McMURRAY +240
GROUP BETTING RULES
**All 4 Drivers in Group Must Start for action
**Best Finish in Group wins
**PARLAY ALLOWED IN GROUPS 1-6
NASCAR NATIONWIDE SERIES
SAM'S TOWN 300
LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SATURDAY, MARCH 10, 2012
KYLE BUSCH 9-2
BRAD KESELOWSKI 3
MARK MARTIN 9-2
KASEY KAHNE 8
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 9-2
ELLIOTT SADLER 8
TREVOR BAYNE 10
AUSTIN DILLON 12
SAM HORNISH JR 25
JUSTIN ALLGAIER 25
BRENDAN GAUGHAN 30
JAMES BUESCHER 50
COLE WHITT 50
DANICA PATRICK 50
BRIAN SCOTT 75
MICHAEL ANNETT 100
KENNY WALLACE 100
FIELD 15
SAM'S TOWN 300 MATCHUPS
BRAD KESELOWSKI -160
KYLE BUSCH +140
BRAD KESELOWSKI -160
MARK MARTIN +140
KYLE BUSCH -110
MARK MARTIN -110
RICKY STENHOUSE JR -110
MARK MARTIN -110
RICKY STENHOUSE JR -145
ELLIOTT SADLER +125
RICKY STENHOUSE JR -160
KASEY KAHNE +140
KASEY KAHNE -125
TREVOR BAYNE +105
ELLIOTT SADLER -125
KASEY KAHNE +105
KASEY KAHNE -155
AUSTIN DILLON +135
TREVOR BAYNE -140
AUSTIN DILLON +120
RICKY STENHOUSE JR -175
TREVOR BAYNE +155
AUSTIN DILLON -155
SAM HORNISH JR +135
SAM HORNISH JR -110
JUSTIN ALLGAIER -110
COLE WHITT -120
JAMES BUESCHER EVEN
BRIAN SCOTT EVEN
JAMES BUESCHER -120
BRENDAN GAUGHAN -130
COLE WHITT +110
BRIAN SCOTT -140
DANICA PATRICK +120
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Final 2012 Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500 Driver Ratings - Post Q
Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Subway Fresh Fit 500
Phoenix International Raceway
Sunday, March 4, 2012 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Phoenix*
1. Kasey Kahne 12/1 5th 14th 10th 1st
2011 fall winner, sixth in spring; had best 10 consecutive lap average in final practice.
2. Greg Biffle 18/1 3rd 13th 7th 13th
Two-time runner-up; using same third-place New Hampshire chassis from fall of 2011.
3. Jimmie Johnson 7/1 24th 7th 4th 14th
Four-time winner with a track record 5.4 average finish in 17 starts, seventh or better 14 times.
4. Tony Stewart 7/1 1st 23rd 2nd 3rd
1999 winner and three-time runner-up; using winning New Hampshire chassis from 2011 Chase.
5. Jeff Gordon 8/1 17th 5th 30th 32nd
Two-time winner, the last coming in this race last season; 10.9 average finish in 26 starts.
6. Mark Martin 40/1 2nd 15th 1st 16th
Two-time winner, the last coming in 2009; second best average finish of 9.0 in 30 starts.
7. Carl Edwards 7/1 16th 27th 24th 2nd
2010 fall winner and arguably the fastest car of the last three events; debuts new car.
8. Kyle Busch 7/1 7th 25th 12th 36th
2005 winner while driving No. 5 Hendrick car, runner-up last spring; using 2011 Phoenix chassis.
9. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1 31st 11th 29th 24th
Two-time winner, the last coming in 2004. Using new chassis; fast in race trim during practice.
10. Ryan Newman 20/1 4th 9th 6th 5th
2010 winner with four straight top5 finishes; using back-up car after wrecking in first practice.
* Results from the November 13, 2011 race at Phoenix, the last race run on the track and first under new configuration.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Phoenix Betting Notes
Kasey Kahne won me over in the first Phoenix practice session with the top average speeds and the fifth fastest single lap. When he came out in the final practice with the best 10 consecutive lap average, I was all in. Those are the type of valuable categories that all the great cars of the past have had in recent wins at Phoenix, such as Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson.
I still like all the rest of the Hendrick cars to do well, even Johnson despite all the dark clouds hanging over their garage. Playing all of them in match-ups should present some value as long as they aren’t matched up against each other. It wouldn’t be a stretch to see all four cars finish within the top-8.
Tony Stewart was great in qualifying trim and led the single fastest lap in the first session, but I’m looking to down-grade him a bit and shy away completely. When the race trim came on, Stewart wasn’t that good, although he was third behind Kahne in best 10 consecutive lap average.
The top long shots of the race are Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, and Ryan Newman. Even though Newman went to a back-up car, it still ran just as good in the final practice. These type of tracks have been Newman’s best since joining Stewart-Haas.
Match-up of the Week:
Kasey Kahne -105 vs. Denny Hamlin: Needless to say, I like Kahne a lot in this race. I will play him in almost any match-up that doesn’t involve another Hendrick car. Even though I don’t like Stewart as much, I would stay away from that sneaky good driver as well. But everyone else at a reasonable price where I don't have to lay over -135, It’s all Kahne.
Starting Lineup
Subway Fresh Fit 500
Phoenix International Raceway
Sunday, March 4, 2012 - 12:16 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Phoenix*
1. Kasey Kahne 12/1 5th 14th 10th 1st
2011 fall winner, sixth in spring; had best 10 consecutive lap average in final practice.
2. Greg Biffle 18/1 3rd 13th 7th 13th
Two-time runner-up; using same third-place New Hampshire chassis from fall of 2011.
3. Jimmie Johnson 7/1 24th 7th 4th 14th
Four-time winner with a track record 5.4 average finish in 17 starts, seventh or better 14 times.
4. Tony Stewart 7/1 1st 23rd 2nd 3rd
1999 winner and three-time runner-up; using winning New Hampshire chassis from 2011 Chase.
5. Jeff Gordon 8/1 17th 5th 30th 32nd
Two-time winner, the last coming in this race last season; 10.9 average finish in 26 starts.
6. Mark Martin 40/1 2nd 15th 1st 16th
Two-time winner, the last coming in 2009; second best average finish of 9.0 in 30 starts.
7. Carl Edwards 7/1 16th 27th 24th 2nd
2010 fall winner and arguably the fastest car of the last three events; debuts new car.
8. Kyle Busch 7/1 7th 25th 12th 36th
2005 winner while driving No. 5 Hendrick car, runner-up last spring; using 2011 Phoenix chassis.
9. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1 31st 11th 29th 24th
Two-time winner, the last coming in 2004. Using new chassis; fast in race trim during practice.
10. Ryan Newman 20/1 4th 9th 6th 5th
2010 winner with four straight top5 finishes; using back-up car after wrecking in first practice.
* Results from the November 13, 2011 race at Phoenix, the last race run on the track and first under new configuration.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
 |
| Kahne was very strong in practice |
Phoenix Betting Notes
Kasey Kahne won me over in the first Phoenix practice session with the top average speeds and the fifth fastest single lap. When he came out in the final practice with the best 10 consecutive lap average, I was all in. Those are the type of valuable categories that all the great cars of the past have had in recent wins at Phoenix, such as Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson.
I still like all the rest of the Hendrick cars to do well, even Johnson despite all the dark clouds hanging over their garage. Playing all of them in match-ups should present some value as long as they aren’t matched up against each other. It wouldn’t be a stretch to see all four cars finish within the top-8.
Tony Stewart was great in qualifying trim and led the single fastest lap in the first session, but I’m looking to down-grade him a bit and shy away completely. When the race trim came on, Stewart wasn’t that good, although he was third behind Kahne in best 10 consecutive lap average.
The top long shots of the race are Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, and Ryan Newman. Even though Newman went to a back-up car, it still ran just as good in the final practice. These type of tracks have been Newman’s best since joining Stewart-Haas.
Match-up of the Week:
Kasey Kahne -105 vs. Denny Hamlin: Needless to say, I like Kahne a lot in this race. I will play him in almost any match-up that doesn’t involve another Hendrick car. Even though I don’t like Stewart as much, I would stay away from that sneaky good driver as well. But everyone else at a reasonable price where I don't have to lay over -135, It’s all Kahne.
Starting Lineup
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Phoenix Preview: Hendrick Cars Should Have the Edge
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
For the next few weeks we're going to all be learning about what the changes to the the NASCAR Sprint Cup cars mean at differing tracks, most notably how the new electronic fuel injection reacts. The teams that have done the most extensive testing since it was allowed last season would appear to have an edge. Those teams, not surprisingly, are the ones with the most money, such as Hendrick Motorsports.
Last week's restrictor-plate race at Daytona didn't offer the best data with the new EFI system because cars are propelled more by the draft than by themselves. This week at Phoenix it will be every driver for themselves with their crew chief at the computer dissecting every piece of data that comes through their computer in nearly the same fashion they do in Formula-one.
Instead of a crew chief asking their driver "what's wrong" with a driver speculating, the crew chief will now be able to know and pinpoint issues quicker. These next few races will be important for every team to figure out how they're going maximize all that data to their advantage.
Some of the expected bonuses of EFI is less blown engines and a more accurate figure on fuel mileage. Some of the drama of wondering whether a car can make the final few laps will be taken out of the equation, but will also intensify at the same time as teams are sure to push the limits more so than in the past. Is the computer smarter here, or weighing a gas can after each pit stop to see exactly how much fuel got into the car?
Even without speculating that Hendrick may have the advantage here like they did in 2007 when the 'Car of Tomorrow' was introduced, they are collectively pretty stout at Phoenix as is.
Jimmie Johnson has a track best career average of 5.4 in 17 starts that include four wins. He's never finished worse than 15th and has only finished worse than seventh 3 times. Johnson has had a lot of time reflect on not winning his sixth straight title last season and when looking back on 2011, Phoenix is the type of track he knows he can improve upon from last year.
Jeff Gordon is a two-time winner at Phoenix. Unlike most of the other tracks where he did most of his damage during his glory years in the 90's, he captured his only two wins on the track in 2007 and in this race last season.
Kasey Kahne gets to jump into the No. 5 Hendrick car that Mark Martin drove to a Phoenix victory in 2009, a car Kyle Busch also won at Phoenix with in 2005. Kahne looks to be one of the surprises of the 2012 season and this will be our first real opportunity to see what he can do with the Hendrick horsepower under the hood. In the fall race last season, Kahne did the amazing by taking a lame duck Red Bull Racing team to the winners circle. It was Kahne's only win of 2012.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has gone 130 races without a win, but Phoenix could be a place we see the streak end. He's a two-time winner on the track (2003-04) and be the major beneficiary of having the Hendrick edge in his corner.
The top Ford of the race figures to be Carl Edwards who has had the best car in the last three Phoenix races, but has claimed only one victory. The last time NASCAR made some changes, Roush Racing took a long time to catch up. It's debatable whether it will happen again, but it does take some of the shine off of what Edwards has done recently at Phoenix. It's likely odds on Edwards will too low to back as most sports books will use those last three races as a reference when posting their numbers.
Top 5 Finish Position:
1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
3) #99 Carl Edwards (7/1)
4) #5 Kasey Kahne (14/1)
5) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (25/1)
Gaughan to a GREAT Car
While Danica Patrick won't make a Sprint Cup appearance again until May, Las Vegans will make up for the void with their own favorite son, Brendan Gaughan, who will run race No. 2, 3, 4 and 5 beginning this week in Phoenix. Kurt and Kyle Busch are loved in Las Vegas as well, but Brendan has a special relationship with the locals because of his family ties (Father Michael and Grandfather Jackie) that have been so good to Las Vegans over the last six decades.
When Brendan got his first shot at Cup racing, he didn't really have a chance to succeed as an afterthought third-string program run by Roger Penske during lean years. His current run will see him in Richard Childress cars with chassis' leftovers from the departure of Clint Bowyer as well as a cars used by Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick.
His return to the Cup series during the Las Vegas race in two weeks will be one of the bigger underlying stories of the weekend. Here's to hoping, and wishing, Gaughan the best of performances the next few weeks in the spotlight of Cup racing.
VegasInsider.com
 |
| Johnson has four Phoenix wins and the No. 5 has two recent wins (Getty) |
Last week's restrictor-plate race at Daytona didn't offer the best data with the new EFI system because cars are propelled more by the draft than by themselves. This week at Phoenix it will be every driver for themselves with their crew chief at the computer dissecting every piece of data that comes through their computer in nearly the same fashion they do in Formula-one.
Instead of a crew chief asking their driver "what's wrong" with a driver speculating, the crew chief will now be able to know and pinpoint issues quicker. These next few races will be important for every team to figure out how they're going maximize all that data to their advantage.
Some of the expected bonuses of EFI is less blown engines and a more accurate figure on fuel mileage. Some of the drama of wondering whether a car can make the final few laps will be taken out of the equation, but will also intensify at the same time as teams are sure to push the limits more so than in the past. Is the computer smarter here, or weighing a gas can after each pit stop to see exactly how much fuel got into the car?
Even without speculating that Hendrick may have the advantage here like they did in 2007 when the 'Car of Tomorrow' was introduced, they are collectively pretty stout at Phoenix as is.
Jimmie Johnson has a track best career average of 5.4 in 17 starts that include four wins. He's never finished worse than 15th and has only finished worse than seventh 3 times. Johnson has had a lot of time reflect on not winning his sixth straight title last season and when looking back on 2011, Phoenix is the type of track he knows he can improve upon from last year.
Jeff Gordon is a two-time winner at Phoenix. Unlike most of the other tracks where he did most of his damage during his glory years in the 90's, he captured his only two wins on the track in 2007 and in this race last season.
Kasey Kahne gets to jump into the No. 5 Hendrick car that Mark Martin drove to a Phoenix victory in 2009, a car Kyle Busch also won at Phoenix with in 2005. Kahne looks to be one of the surprises of the 2012 season and this will be our first real opportunity to see what he can do with the Hendrick horsepower under the hood. In the fall race last season, Kahne did the amazing by taking a lame duck Red Bull Racing team to the winners circle. It was Kahne's only win of 2012.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has gone 130 races without a win, but Phoenix could be a place we see the streak end. He's a two-time winner on the track (2003-04) and be the major beneficiary of having the Hendrick edge in his corner.
The top Ford of the race figures to be Carl Edwards who has had the best car in the last three Phoenix races, but has claimed only one victory. The last time NASCAR made some changes, Roush Racing took a long time to catch up. It's debatable whether it will happen again, but it does take some of the shine off of what Edwards has done recently at Phoenix. It's likely odds on Edwards will too low to back as most sports books will use those last three races as a reference when posting their numbers.
Top 5 Finish Position:
1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
3) #99 Carl Edwards (7/1)
4) #5 Kasey Kahne (14/1)
5) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (25/1)
Gaughan to a GREAT Car
While Danica Patrick won't make a Sprint Cup appearance again until May, Las Vegans will make up for the void with their own favorite son, Brendan Gaughan, who will run race No. 2, 3, 4 and 5 beginning this week in Phoenix. Kurt and Kyle Busch are loved in Las Vegas as well, but Brendan has a special relationship with the locals because of his family ties (Father Michael and Grandfather Jackie) that have been so good to Las Vegans over the last six decades.
When Brendan got his first shot at Cup racing, he didn't really have a chance to succeed as an afterthought third-string program run by Roger Penske during lean years. His current run will see him in Richard Childress cars with chassis' leftovers from the departure of Clint Bowyer as well as a cars used by Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick.
His return to the Cup series during the Las Vegas race in two weeks will be one of the bigger underlying stories of the weekend. Here's to hoping, and wishing, Gaughan the best of performances the next few weeks in the spotlight of Cup racing.
LVH Super Book Odds to Win Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500
 |
| Four drivers are 7-to-1 favorites to win at Phoenix Sunday (Getty) |
PHOENIX INT'L RACEWAY
SUNDAY, MARCH 4, 2012
JIMMIE JOHNSON 7
CARL EDWARDS 7
KYLE BUSCH 7
MATT KENSETH 12
JEFF GORDON 8
TONY STEWART 7
KEVIN HARVICK 10
KASEY KAHNE 10
DENNY HAMLIN 10
GREG BIFFLE 18
BRAD KESELOWSKI 15
DALE EARNHARDT JR 25
CLINT BOWYER 30
RYAN NEWMAN 20
AJ ALLMENDINGER 30
MARTIN TRUEX JR 30
MARK MARTIN 40
JEFF BURTON 40
JOEY LOGANO 50
JUAN MONTOYA 50
JAMIE McMURRAY 50
KURT BUSCH 50
PAUL MENARD 60
MARCOS AMBROSE 75
REGAN SMITH 100
BOBBY LABONTE 500
DAVID RAGAN 500
FIELD 60
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Daytona 500 Wagerers Back Danica Patrick
By MICAH ROBERTS
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Danica Patrick has yet to make a start in NASCAR's Sprint Cup Series, but if the action in Las Vegas sports books is any indication, she already is the sport's biggest star.
Patrick opened at 100-1 at the LVH SuperBook to win Sunday's Daytona 500, her first Cup start, and currently is 60-1.
"Right now we have the most tickets written on Patrick among all the drivers," LVH SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. "She also has the third-most money wagered on her, behind Las Vegan Kyle Busch and the pole sitter, Carl Edwards."
Looking at public betting patterns in major events like the Daytona 500, as opposed to average events, offers great insight into what the masses are thinking.
"The Daytona 500 attracts more than just race fans, it attracts sports fans," Kornegay said. "Most of the tickets on Patrick are from fans, not gamblers."
The lure of betting on Patrick is far beyond the large odds, her looks or being only the third female to start in the Daytona 500. Although she's still learning how to handle the heavier stock cars, there's no denying Patrick comes into the Cup series with an impressive resume from the IndyCar Series, where she finished third in the 2009 Indianapolis 500.
Recent IndyCar drivers have struggled in their transition to stock cars, but none was given the type of car Patrick will drive in her limited Cup schedule this year. Not only did she jump into a car produced by 2011 Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart, she also has a crew chief, Greg Zipadelli, who won two championships with Stewart at Joe Gibbs Racing.
Another advantage for Patrick is that all the drivers are adjusting to changes designed to stop two-car tandem racing. With less rear downforce because of a smaller spoiler, a smaller radiator to stop cars from being glued to each other's bumper and no radio communication among drivers, it has made them a little less aggressive and put them all on the same learning curve.
The strategy for Patrick will be to stay out of trouble and finish the race. She probably won't learn enough during the race to make the required winning move on the final lap, but she should be able to finish on the lead lap.
The LVH has a proposition on Patrick's finish at 25½ (over-120) that is intriguing because of how safe she will drive in NASCAR's premier event. With her strategy and the volatility all the changes for this race might produce, 18 cars could be wiped out in a few wrecks, leaving her, almost by default, with a finish of 25th.
Betting on Patrick to win is quite a long shot, but one never knows what might happen at Daytona. Last year, Trevor Bayne made his Daytona 500 debut and won at 100-1 odds.
"Would it be a great story if she won? Yes," Kornegay said. "But it wouldn't be a great story for us."
The Daytona 500 is the biggest crapshoot of the year and one of the least-bet races by professional bettors. Following trends and practice tendencies that are helpful at other tracks are thrown out the window here.
The odds reflect the race's history of uncertainty, with no driver listed under 10-1 at LVH. The Fords have looked strong throughout Speedweeks, but the best bet might be to side with a Chevrolet driven by Stewart (10-1), Jeff Gordon (12-1) or Jamie McMurray (18-1). Kurt Busch (25-1) will offer a nice long-shot opportunity driving the same Chevy chassis that Brad Keselowski used to win at Talladega in 2009.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He can be reached at VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or Twitter: @MicahRoberts7.
Daytona 500 Starting Lineup
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
 |
| Patrick has the car and crew to be a success in Cup series |
Patrick opened at 100-1 at the LVH SuperBook to win Sunday's Daytona 500, her first Cup start, and currently is 60-1.
"Right now we have the most tickets written on Patrick among all the drivers," LVH SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. "She also has the third-most money wagered on her, behind Las Vegan Kyle Busch and the pole sitter, Carl Edwards."
Looking at public betting patterns in major events like the Daytona 500, as opposed to average events, offers great insight into what the masses are thinking.
"The Daytona 500 attracts more than just race fans, it attracts sports fans," Kornegay said. "Most of the tickets on Patrick are from fans, not gamblers."
The lure of betting on Patrick is far beyond the large odds, her looks or being only the third female to start in the Daytona 500. Although she's still learning how to handle the heavier stock cars, there's no denying Patrick comes into the Cup series with an impressive resume from the IndyCar Series, where she finished third in the 2009 Indianapolis 500.
Recent IndyCar drivers have struggled in their transition to stock cars, but none was given the type of car Patrick will drive in her limited Cup schedule this year. Not only did she jump into a car produced by 2011 Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart, she also has a crew chief, Greg Zipadelli, who won two championships with Stewart at Joe Gibbs Racing.
Another advantage for Patrick is that all the drivers are adjusting to changes designed to stop two-car tandem racing. With less rear downforce because of a smaller spoiler, a smaller radiator to stop cars from being glued to each other's bumper and no radio communication among drivers, it has made them a little less aggressive and put them all on the same learning curve.
The strategy for Patrick will be to stay out of trouble and finish the race. She probably won't learn enough during the race to make the required winning move on the final lap, but she should be able to finish on the lead lap.
The LVH has a proposition on Patrick's finish at 25½ (over-120) that is intriguing because of how safe she will drive in NASCAR's premier event. With her strategy and the volatility all the changes for this race might produce, 18 cars could be wiped out in a few wrecks, leaving her, almost by default, with a finish of 25th.
Betting on Patrick to win is quite a long shot, but one never knows what might happen at Daytona. Last year, Trevor Bayne made his Daytona 500 debut and won at 100-1 odds.
"Would it be a great story if she won? Yes," Kornegay said. "But it wouldn't be a great story for us."
The Daytona 500 is the biggest crapshoot of the year and one of the least-bet races by professional bettors. Following trends and practice tendencies that are helpful at other tracks are thrown out the window here.
The odds reflect the race's history of uncertainty, with no driver listed under 10-1 at LVH. The Fords have looked strong throughout Speedweeks, but the best bet might be to side with a Chevrolet driven by Stewart (10-1), Jeff Gordon (12-1) or Jamie McMurray (18-1). Kurt Busch (25-1) will offer a nice long-shot opportunity driving the same Chevy chassis that Brad Keselowski used to win at Talladega in 2009.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He can be reached at VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or Twitter: @MicahRoberts7.
Daytona 500 Starting Lineup
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Daytona 500 Preview: Gordon Could Be in Line for Fourth Win
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Coming into last week’s Budweiser Shootout there was a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the garage area to how all of NASCAR’s rule changes would affect restrictor-plate racing as we’ve become to know it. The top priority: stopping two-car tandem racing. Mission accomplished!
In the process of taking away radio communication between drivers, using a smaller radiator and creating less rear down force with a smaller spoiler, the cars looked like they were racing on ice. Any car that got tapped in a bump draft on their right rear bumper, a practice commonly used well before the tandem racing came about, was sent sailing out of control. And with tandem racing gone, cars are now drawn into packs. When one car gets sent flying, it takes five to eight cars with it as well.
Perhaps this is what NASCAR wanted, or maybe not. Most NASCAR fans don’t like to an abundance of crashes, opting for strategy to play out while keeping all the good cars on the track. However, massive wrecks make for good TV and can bring in the fringe fan who might have blown away by the excitement of seeing Jeff Gordon’s car roll over eight times in highlights. Maybe that type of excitement captures a new audience, then TV Ratings go up, sponsorship dollars go up, which ultimately results in NASCAR’s upcoming TV contract going up.
Regardless of NASCAR’s motivation, the Daytona 500 has enough clout to carry itself on it’s own just because of the brand. This is NASCAR’s Super Bowl, the highest paying race of the season where everyone has the same amount points coming in and everyone has a chance to win. It was just last season that a rookie, Trevor Bayne, won and paid out odds at 100-to-1 at Las Vegas sports books.
This years race has another rookie, but not just your average kid coming out of now where rookie. No, this rookie has a massive following already and she’s been the story of speed weeks, even more so than all the changes NASCAR implemented. Danica Patrick makes her Sprint Cup debut this week on NASCAR’s biggest stage.
Patrick is making a bigger splash than when Dale Earnhardt Jr made his full-time Cup debut in the 2000 Daytona 500, and it's hard to remember anyone coming close to each of them in recent history. NASCAR couldn’t have had been handed a better marketing tool for their sport that crosses over into several different markets, age groups and genders. She’s a gorgeous woman who drives fast cars, what more could any regular guy want?
But Patrick isn’t just a pretty faced marketing scheme like we saw with Anna Kournikova in tennis, she’s a good driver who has shown vast improvements in her skills the last two seasons while driving part-time in NASCAR’s Nationwide series. She’s not the gimmick female driver making headlines because she’s the first or second woman to drive in the Daytona 500 -- she’s the third.
No, that‘s not her.
Patrick is as tenacious a driver as there is and as she gets more comfortable, we’ll see her go off on some guys who try to teach her some NASCAR 101. The biggest part of her maturation process comes from the equipment she’ll be driving. Unlike female drivers from the past, Patrick will have a ride and crew comparable to all the top teams. Her boss is last years Sprint Cup Champion Tony Stewart and her crew chief is Greg Zippadelli, who teamed with Stewart at Joe Gibbs racing for two season titles.
Now the question is, where will she finish Sunday? The LVH Super Book has her listed at 50-to-1, down from the opener of 100-to-1, showing just how popular she is already at the bet windows.
We know the magnitude of the race won’t affect her because she finished fourth in her first Indianapolis 500 in 2005 and her tentativeness in the race may work to her advantage. If she stays back out of trouble, she could avoid all the wrecks that are sure to come. In last week’s Bud Shootout, only 10 of the 25 drivers finished on the lead lap. Running three-wide in the lead pack resulted in bad news for most of the drivers.
Because of the equipment and leadership of Zippadelli, she’ll have a chance of staying on the lead lap all race which should result in at least a top-20 finish. What happens in the final 10 laps is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’t count her out like many are quick to say.
That’s kind of the theme for this entire race: it’s anybody’s race to win. In this type of racing, especially with it being a new learning experience for everyone, you really can’t count anyone out which makes it the toughest race of the year to handicap.
Here’s a look at the top contenders:
Kyle Busch (10/1): His legendray status just went up a couple notches with his win in the Budweiser Shootout last week. After getting booed in pre-race ceremonies, even his biggest detractors had to roar with approval after his win, which shows how much he's truly respected. He saved his car on two separate occasions Saturday night that might have resulted in a lost day for other drivers, but to not only finish the race, but then win it? Are you kidding me....this guy is flat out awesome which makes some of us in Las Vegas very proud.
Now the question is whether he can win the Daytona 500. History says no. Only four drivers have won the Budweiser Shootout and Daytona 500 in the same year with the last coming in 2000 by Dale Jarret who was the only driver to do it twice. He had a great pre-season test at Daytona and showed Saturday that he has no problem racing on ice.
Jeff Gordon (12/1): He's one of the four drivers to win the Bud Shootout and Daytona 500 back-to-back, but that came in his glory years back in 1997. The thing Gordon has going for him is that this type of pack racing is a blast from the past where Gordon dominated plate races. No one in NASCAR has the type of restrictor-plate experience, or wins, Gordon has and he should move use that past experience to move in and out of the pack better than most in this one.
Kurt Busch (30/1): He may be from an underfunded team, but don't count him out. He was lurking in fourth position late in the Bud Shootout and looked poise to make a winning move before being taken out by the element of the race. He knows the plate races are his only chance to get a win this season and will do all he can to finally get a points-paying race win at Daytona. With the help of Hendrick powered motors and his experience, he'll be right there near the end.
Jamie McMurray (20/1): He looked to have the strongest car Saturday night with an ability to maneuver in and out of the packs better than everyone else. He's a past winner of the Daytona 500 and has had his best performances in plate races. McMurray may be the best value on the board.
Tony Stewart (12/1): He has 16 wins at Daytona, but still hasn't conquered the Daytona 500. The only thing missing from his racing resume is not winning the 500 which makes us remember the lengthy delay Darrell Waltrip and Dale Earnhardt went through before they finally won. Stewart didn't send Kyle Busch's bold late pass into the wall last week like he did two years ago when the young gun tried to take a points paying race from him, but if the same situation arises again, Stewart will do anything he can to win the race with little consideration of possible fines.
Top-5 Finish Position:
1) #24 Jeff Gordon (12/1)
2) #51 Kurt Busch (30/1)
3) #1 Jamie McMurray (20/1)
4) #14 Tony Stewart (12/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
14) #10 Danica Patrick (50/1)
VegasInsider.com
 |
| Kyle Busch is 10-to-1 co-favorite to win Daytona 500 (Getty) |
In the process of taking away radio communication between drivers, using a smaller radiator and creating less rear down force with a smaller spoiler, the cars looked like they were racing on ice. Any car that got tapped in a bump draft on their right rear bumper, a practice commonly used well before the tandem racing came about, was sent sailing out of control. And with tandem racing gone, cars are now drawn into packs. When one car gets sent flying, it takes five to eight cars with it as well.
Perhaps this is what NASCAR wanted, or maybe not. Most NASCAR fans don’t like to an abundance of crashes, opting for strategy to play out while keeping all the good cars on the track. However, massive wrecks make for good TV and can bring in the fringe fan who might have blown away by the excitement of seeing Jeff Gordon’s car roll over eight times in highlights. Maybe that type of excitement captures a new audience, then TV Ratings go up, sponsorship dollars go up, which ultimately results in NASCAR’s upcoming TV contract going up.
Regardless of NASCAR’s motivation, the Daytona 500 has enough clout to carry itself on it’s own just because of the brand. This is NASCAR’s Super Bowl, the highest paying race of the season where everyone has the same amount points coming in and everyone has a chance to win. It was just last season that a rookie, Trevor Bayne, won and paid out odds at 100-to-1 at Las Vegas sports books.
This years race has another rookie, but not just your average kid coming out of now where rookie. No, this rookie has a massive following already and she’s been the story of speed weeks, even more so than all the changes NASCAR implemented. Danica Patrick makes her Sprint Cup debut this week on NASCAR’s biggest stage.
 |
| Danica Patrick makes Cup debut this week (Getty) |
But Patrick isn’t just a pretty faced marketing scheme like we saw with Anna Kournikova in tennis, she’s a good driver who has shown vast improvements in her skills the last two seasons while driving part-time in NASCAR’s Nationwide series. She’s not the gimmick female driver making headlines because she’s the first or second woman to drive in the Daytona 500 -- she’s the third.
No, that‘s not her.
Patrick is as tenacious a driver as there is and as she gets more comfortable, we’ll see her go off on some guys who try to teach her some NASCAR 101. The biggest part of her maturation process comes from the equipment she’ll be driving. Unlike female drivers from the past, Patrick will have a ride and crew comparable to all the top teams. Her boss is last years Sprint Cup Champion Tony Stewart and her crew chief is Greg Zippadelli, who teamed with Stewart at Joe Gibbs racing for two season titles.
Now the question is, where will she finish Sunday? The LVH Super Book has her listed at 50-to-1, down from the opener of 100-to-1, showing just how popular she is already at the bet windows.
We know the magnitude of the race won’t affect her because she finished fourth in her first Indianapolis 500 in 2005 and her tentativeness in the race may work to her advantage. If she stays back out of trouble, she could avoid all the wrecks that are sure to come. In last week’s Bud Shootout, only 10 of the 25 drivers finished on the lead lap. Running three-wide in the lead pack resulted in bad news for most of the drivers.
Because of the equipment and leadership of Zippadelli, she’ll have a chance of staying on the lead lap all race which should result in at least a top-20 finish. What happens in the final 10 laps is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’t count her out like many are quick to say.
That’s kind of the theme for this entire race: it’s anybody’s race to win. In this type of racing, especially with it being a new learning experience for everyone, you really can’t count anyone out which makes it the toughest race of the year to handicap.
Here’s a look at the top contenders:
Kyle Busch (10/1): His legendray status just went up a couple notches with his win in the Budweiser Shootout last week. After getting booed in pre-race ceremonies, even his biggest detractors had to roar with approval after his win, which shows how much he's truly respected. He saved his car on two separate occasions Saturday night that might have resulted in a lost day for other drivers, but to not only finish the race, but then win it? Are you kidding me....this guy is flat out awesome which makes some of us in Las Vegas very proud.
Now the question is whether he can win the Daytona 500. History says no. Only four drivers have won the Budweiser Shootout and Daytona 500 in the same year with the last coming in 2000 by Dale Jarret who was the only driver to do it twice. He had a great pre-season test at Daytona and showed Saturday that he has no problem racing on ice.
 |
| Gordon has looked strong throughout pre-season (Getty) |
Kurt Busch (30/1): He may be from an underfunded team, but don't count him out. He was lurking in fourth position late in the Bud Shootout and looked poise to make a winning move before being taken out by the element of the race. He knows the plate races are his only chance to get a win this season and will do all he can to finally get a points-paying race win at Daytona. With the help of Hendrick powered motors and his experience, he'll be right there near the end.
Jamie McMurray (20/1): He looked to have the strongest car Saturday night with an ability to maneuver in and out of the packs better than everyone else. He's a past winner of the Daytona 500 and has had his best performances in plate races. McMurray may be the best value on the board.
Tony Stewart (12/1): He has 16 wins at Daytona, but still hasn't conquered the Daytona 500. The only thing missing from his racing resume is not winning the 500 which makes us remember the lengthy delay Darrell Waltrip and Dale Earnhardt went through before they finally won. Stewart didn't send Kyle Busch's bold late pass into the wall last week like he did two years ago when the young gun tried to take a points paying race from him, but if the same situation arises again, Stewart will do anything he can to win the race with little consideration of possible fines.
Top-5 Finish Position:
1) #24 Jeff Gordon (12/1)
2) #51 Kurt Busch (30/1)
3) #1 Jamie McMurray (20/1)
4) #14 Tony Stewart (12/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
14) #10 Danica Patrick (50/1)
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