Final 2012 Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500 Driver Ratings - Post Q

Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Subway Fresh Fit 500
Phoenix International Raceway
Sunday, March 4, 2012 - 12:16 pm (PDT)

Rating    Driver     Odds      Practice 1   Practice 2   Qualified   Phoenix*

 1. Kasey Kahne 12/1             5th              14th            10th         1st
2011 fall winner, sixth in spring; had best 10 consecutive lap average in final practice.
 2. Greg Biffle 18/1                 3rd              13th             7th         13th
Two-time runner-up; using same third-place New Hampshire chassis from fall of 2011.
 3. Jimmie Johnson 7/1         24th               7th             4th         14th
Four-time winner with a track record 5.4 average finish in 17 starts, seventh or better 14 times.
 4. Tony Stewart 7/1               1st              23rd             2nd         3rd
1999 winner and three-time runner-up; using winning New Hampshire chassis from 2011 Chase.
 5. Jeff Gordon 8/1                17th               5th            30th        32nd
Two-time winner, the last coming in this race last season; 10.9 average finish in 26 starts.
 6. Mark Martin 40/1               2nd              15th            1st          16th       
Two-time winner, the last coming in 2009; second best average finish of 9.0 in 30 starts.
 7. Carl Edwards 7/1              16th             27th            24th         2nd
2010 fall winner and arguably the fastest car of the last three events; debuts new car.
 8. Kyle Busch 7/1                   7th              25th            12th        36th
2005 winner while driving No. 5 Hendrick car, runner-up last spring; using 2011 Phoenix chassis.
 9. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1    31st             11th            29th        24th
Two-time winner, the last coming in 2004. Using new chassis; fast in race trim during practice.
10. Ryan Newman 20/1          4th                9th             6th          5th
2010 winner with four straight top5 finishes; using back-up car after wrecking in first practice.

* Results from the November 13, 2011 race at Phoenix, the last race run on the track and first under new configuration.
     
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com, TheLinemakers.com or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.

Kahne was very strong in practice

Phoenix Betting Notes
Kasey Kahne won me over in the first Phoenix practice session with the top average speeds and the fifth fastest single lap. When he came out in the final practice with the best 10 consecutive lap average, I was all in. Those are the type of valuable categories that all the great cars of the past have had in recent wins at Phoenix, such as Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson.

I still like all the rest of the Hendrick cars to do well, even Johnson despite all the dark clouds hanging over their garage. Playing all of them in match-ups should present some value as long as they aren’t matched up against each other. It wouldn’t be a stretch to see all four cars finish within the top-8. 

Tony Stewart was great in qualifying trim and led the single fastest lap in the first session, but I’m looking to down-grade him a bit and shy away completely. When the race trim came on, Stewart wasn’t that good, although he was third behind Kahne in best 10 consecutive lap average.

The top long shots of the race are Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, and Ryan Newman. Even though Newman went to a back-up car, it still ran just as good in the final practice. These type of tracks have been Newman’s best since joining Stewart-Haas.


Match-up of the Week:
Kasey Kahne -105 vs. Denny Hamlin: Needless to say, I like Kahne a lot in this race. I will play him in almost any match-up that doesn’t involve another Hendrick car. Even though I don’t like Stewart as much, I would stay away from that sneaky good driver as well. But everyone else at a reasonable price where I don't have to lay over -135, It’s all Kahne.  

Starting Lineup

Martin Fastest in Final Michigan Practice, But Menard Looks Better

Martin had his best practice of 2011 (Getty)

Mark Martin, with a lap speed of 187.642 mph, was the fastest in Saturday's final practice session for Sunday's Pure Michigan 400. Martin grabbed the top time early in the session and held on to have his best all around practices of any race this season.

Most of the teams spent Friday's session in qualifying trim with only a few making race runs. Between the two sessions, Martin was one of the overall fastest in either set-up. Martin is a five-time Michigan winner with the last coming in 2009.

Kyle Busch was second fastest with a lap speed 187.417 mph, and was followed by Jimmie Johnson (187.407), pole sitter Greg Biffle (187.393) and Jeff Gordon (187.246).

Rounding out the top-ten fastest during final practice were Kurt Busch (187.086), Matt Kenseth (187.003), Ryan Newman (186.916), David Ragan (186.901) and Paul Menard.

Despite Martin's resurgence, the star of the day looked to be Menard who had the fastest average lap times and best 10-consecutive lap average. Menard ran 43 laps and looks to be every bit as good as he was in the first Michigan race back in June where he finished fourth. Menard is using that exact same chassis this week.

Kyle Busch only has two-five finishes at Michigan, the second coming in June. Busch had perhaps the biggest turnaround in performance from qualifying trim to race trim between Friday and Saturday practices. Busch was second best in the 10-consecutive lap average while running 53 laps.

Kenseth ran 50 laps and solidified his place as the favorite after running the second best combined average lap times. Following his qualifying and practice efforts Friday, the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book installed Kenseth as the 6-to-1 favorite win from his opening odds of 12-to-1. Having the car that finished runner-up in June as well as winning at Texas shouldn't hurt his chances Sunday.

Green flag for Pure Michigan 400 is scheduled to drop at 1:20 PM (EDT) on Sunday afternoon.

Final Michigan Practice Speeds

Gordon Hopes To Work With Teammate Martin Again This Week

Gordon has three Firecracker 400 wins at Daytona (Getty)

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (June 28, 2011) – Three-time 400-mile-event winner Jeff Gordon is curious to see if higher temperatures create less grip — and less “stick” — in the annual Fourth of July weekend race at Daytona International Speedway on Saturday night.

Re-pavement of the 2.5-mile track surface in 2010 provided more grip to the competitors during Speedweeks earlier this year, but tracks tend to lose grip in hotter temperatures. Will that be the case this weekend? If so, how will it affect the two-car drafts that have become the norm during restrictor-plate races recently? Gordon is eager to learn the answers to those questions when the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series returns to central Florida this weekend.

“With the bump drafting and two-car drafts, we were able to push another car all the way around the track here in February,” said Gordon, who will drive the No. 24 Pepsi Max Chevrolet Impala this weekend. “We don’t know yet whether we’ll have the same level of grip this weekend with the higher temperatures. If we lose some grip, will one car still be able to ‘stick’ to another for a full lap or multiple laps?

“Right now, I’m expecting we’ll still be able to (push the entire track), so you’re going to have to find a partner. My (Hendrick Motorsports) teammate Mark Martin and I worked well at Talladega, so I’m sure we’ll try to work together again.”

In 37 starts here Gordon has six wins, including three Daytona 500 victories, three poles, 12 top-fives and 18 top-10′s. One thing has not changed during his 19-year career — the ability to adjust to change at the superspeedway.

“When I first started racing here, we had big single-file packs where you had to work lap-after-lap-after lap to finally make the right move to gain a position,” said Gordon, who is currently ninth in the point standings with two wins in 2011.

“Then, with some of the changes to the cars, we were racing in big packs two-and-three wide where a big ‘run’ could gain you a lot of positions in one lap or even just one straightaway.

“Now it’s evolved into the two-car packs. If you want to be good and have a shot at winning, then you have to learn how to two-car draft well. You have to learn how to cool the engine. You have to find somebody you can stick with who will stay with you all day.

“And you both need to be there at the end to have a shot to win the race.”

- Performance PR Plus, Press Release

Hamlin Fastest During Pocono Happy Hour; Junior With Best Average Speeds

Denny Hamlin fastest during Happy Hour at Pocono

Denny Hamlin found himself in a familiar role at the top of the speed charts during Pocono's final practice session with a lap speed of 166.125 mph. The four-time Pocono winner should be coming into this race with a lot more confidence than we have seen all season as he still covets that elusive first win of 2011.

Brian Vickers had the second fastest lap with a speed of 166.067 mph, and was followed by Carl Edwards (166.030), Brad Keselowski (165.926) and Jimmie Johnson (165.700) was fifth fastest.

Rounding out the top-ten fastest in “Happy Hour” were Mark Martin (165.615), David Reutimann (165.554), Ryan Newman (165.529), Kurt Busch (165.456) and Jeff Burton (165.399). Kurt Busch spun out early in the first session and tore up his right rear and had to go to a backup which he only got 12 laps in with it.

Two drivers who really stood out were Dale Earnhardt Jr and Mark Martin who were both raving about theirs cars on radio while driving. Junior couldn't believe how he could keep catching Denny Hamlin throughout their runs while only being slower in and out of one turn. His comments were right on the money because he had the fastest average times of the day among drivers who ran at least 10 laps.

Mark Martin isn't one to boast about having a good car if it isn't and he told the crew that they have a really fast car, and his fifth best overall lap reflects those thoughts.

Top-5 Happy Hour Speeds:
#11-Hamlin 166.125
#83-Vickers 166.067
#99-Edwards 166.030
#2-Keselowski 165.926
#48-Johnson 165.700
slowest: #7-Wimmer 159.815 & #50-Bell 161.195
notes: #22-Busch spun in turn 2 and wacked the wall with the rear of the car early in practice, the team brought out the backup car. Busch was able to get a few laps in the backup.

Pocono Practice Speeds


Driver Quotes Following Friday's First Practice at Pocono

TONY STEWART ON HOW HIS FIRST PRACTICE WENT: “I think we’re okay. Not 100 percent sure but I think according to the times we’re okay so far. I’m not sure we can say we’re spectacular but we’re above average I think.”

TONY STEWART SHIFTING: “I don’t understand why anybody should have to shift on an oval in a stock car but here we are and here we are doing it again. It is what it is.”

DENNY HAMLIN ON THIS BEING A GREAT TIME TO RACE AT POCONO FOR HIM: “It certainly is — we feel like we’ve been in contention for a couple wins here these last three or four weeks. It comes at a good time. This is a new car and it seems to have some pretty good speed in it. It’s a good part of it. We’re racing here in the middle of the day — conditions are going to be hot and slick on Sunday. All those things factor into what usually caters to us. I think this is a good time and hopefully it’s a chance for us to get in victory lane for the first time this year.”

DENNY HAMLIN ON SHIFTING CHANGING HIS STRATEGY: “It does — it takes a little bit and it’s another element that gets changed. It will. I think that we’re really only shifting in one corner — it turn one. It’s tough for me to say. You’re still going to have the guys that typically run good here — looking at the practice speeds, it looked like the typical guys were pretty good. I don’t think it will change a whole lot, but I do think it’s going to be tough on the reliability of these race cars for 500 miles. Shifting takes its toll on engines for sure. Somebody will break one.”

CARL EDWARDS ON WHAT HE'S LEARNED FROM SHIFTING AT POCONO:“We have some different ratios for third gear. I tried shifting there in practice and I went the same speed shifting and not shifting. I think that will be something you can use maybe on restarts when the cars are bunched up. Right now with my limited race trim practice I don’t see myself shifting very much. There are a lot of cycles on the engines here and a lot of up and down on the RPM. Three times per lap and then if you add another shift in there it makes a lot of opportunity for mistakes. To me, I am going to do the best I can to not shift and have the car set up for that.”

CARL EDWARDS ON SHIFTING CHANGING FUEL MILEAGE FOR THE WORSE: “Yeah, I think you use more fuel shifting and getting into third gear and then lifting and standing on it again going into fourth you burn more fuel shifting. If it becomes a fuel mileage race there won’t be guys shifting that last run. You just never know. There have been a couple of fuel mileage races here that I have been a part of and it is a tough place to save fuel at. There are a lot of bumps and the car moves around a lot. It is really hard to run really smooth laps.”

Gordon has three Pocono wins shifting

JEFF GORDON ON SHIFTING AGAIN AT POCONO: “I’m glad it’s back. To me, I wasn’t a fan of when they (NASCAR) took it away. I feel like I have an opportunity to grab that third gear to get a little bit better launch up off the corner. I think it challenges you in a way as a driver and the team, to work on the car to be able to do that. And so I think that just kind of adds another set of skills in there that I think are important, especially here at Pocono, as well as more opportunity to pass. I think it gives you more opportunity there. And I think that’s important because we’ve seen how track position is so important and getting your car to be able to turn down underneath somebody and then grab that gear to be able to try to make a pass I think is important.

“Some guys were shifting the last couple of time we were here with the old transmission. I don’t know how they were doing it. I wasn’t one of them and we were still fast. But to me, it makes sense to have the right third gear in there to be able to shift with that really works for you all the way around this place.”

JEFF GORDON ON HIS POSSIBLE ADVANTAGE OVER OTHERS WHO HAVEN'T SHIFTED: “It’s not difficult. No, what they were doing the last time we were here was difficult. And the guys that were doing it, I still shake my head at it because it was a huge jump from fourth to third and it got your attention. I tried it and I said no thank you. There is no way I’m doing this for 500 miles. But some guys did. And I think that now that we have the proper gearing it should be fairly straight-forward and simple. So I don’t think there is any advantage.”